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Climate change is ?unequivocal?

 
 
mousy
 
Reply Fri 2 Feb, 2007 01:30 pm
By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent

Published: February 1 2007 16:31 | Last updated: February 2 2007 17:35

Climate scientists warned on Friday of a future characterised by extreme weather events ? long and intense droughts, fierce hurricanes, heatwaves, and rising sea levels ? as a result of rising temperatures.

Scientists now understand much more about how weather systems work, so are able to predict how temperature changes affect rainfall patterns and storms. ?You get a range of impacts that will affect people?s daily lives,? said Richard Wood of the UK?s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. ?Heatwaves will hurt more people, there will be more extreme precipitation causing flooding in some areas while other regions are suffering a lack of rainfall.?

Some of these effects will interact. Jonathan Overpeck, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona and another lead author of the IPCC report, said: ?You get a real one-two punch in coastal areas, because you get rising sea levels and more intense hurricanes [which may cause the sea to surge over coastal land]. That will make cities like New Orleans much harder to protect.?

The world has warmed by about 0.74?C in the last 100 years, and will warm a further 0.2?C per decade for the next two decades. Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, said the signals were unmistakable: ?We are seeing things that have not happened in 650,000 years.?

The IPCC said its ?best estimate? was that temperatures would increase by 3?C by the end of the century, if carbon dioxide levels continue to rise as predicted. Such a rise would cause devastating effects in many countries.

Friday?s report was confined to the scientific evidence and projections for global warming, leaving considerations of its likely impacts on economics and health for a further report to be published in April. However, other studies have found that such a temperature rise would result in serious water shortages for billions of people, lower crop yields, the spread of tropical diseases and the mass migration of people, mainly in developing countries, away from the worst affected areas.

?With hotter temperatures, demand for water for agriculture and natural vegetation will increase,? said Prof Overpeck. ?But some places, like the western US where I come from, rely on snowpack for their water. As the glaciers retreat the water flow will be less.?

Temperatures could rise even higher, by 4?C, if ?feedback? effects take place. One such effect would be if thawing Siberian permafrost releases large quantities of methane, a greenhouse gas more potent than carbon dioxide.

Another possibility feared by many scientists is that rising temperatures and drought could cause the Amazon rainforest to die. If that were to happen, the vast forest would turn from absorbing carbon from the atmosphere as it does at present to producing carbon dioxide.

The report noted that ?the last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to four to six metres of sea level rise.?

However, Peter Stott of the UK?s Met Office said although Arctic ice was disappearing, the melting of the massive Greenland ice sheet could take ?thousands of years?. Accordingly, the IPCC estimates a sea level rise of between 18 centimetres and 59 centimetres by 2100, compared with the average between 1980 and 1999. But these estimates do not take account of possible feedback effects.FT.com / In depth - Climate change is ‘unequivocal’
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Tim cv
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Feb, 2007 06:13 pm
@mousy,
WorldNetDaily: Death by liberal activism
WorldNetDaily: Death by liberal activism
The biggest problem I have with this is that we are rejecting science for emotion, doing what feels good instead of following true scientific facts.

Dr. Cullen and her crowd can't tell us whether we are experiencing significant climate change or not. It's all a guess, because mankind has only been keeping temperature records since about 1850. Before that time the arctic nation of Greenland was once green, populated and warm. How is it that the earth's climate would go through such cyclical changes if there were no industrialized civilizations around to cause man-made global warming?
It's time to put a stop to junk science, and the political policy changes proposed by the leaders in the junk science crowd.

Climatologists who told us only 30 years ago that we were entering an ice age should not be allowed now to change our laws, ban automobiles and impose socialist policies on the United States because they've had a change of heart and think that human beings are instead warming the planet.


"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

"I have noted that persons with bad judgment are most insistent that we do what they think best."{ L.Abe}
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Feb, 2007 10:44 pm
@mousy,
A question to any one that thinks they can answer it.

Name one scientific instance where global warming is out of its Natural climant variable? Liberal, conservative, anyone?
0 Replies
 
Red cv
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Feb, 2007 04:35 pm
@mousy,
I believe global warming is the natural aging process of earth, and man kind is speeding up the natural process. I'm not falling for the "Sky is falling" hysteria that has been in the news lately. The report all over the news from the UN didn't have one Scientific study attached to it. They promise those will come later, sorta like the "Food for Oil" scam. The media didn't bother reading the entire document before the sounded the alarm bells of doom and distruction.

The hottest year on record in Canada was I believe 1953 and 700 people died from the heat. It's minus 36 with the windchill today. When I lived in NFL we had two of the worst snowfall records in a hundred years (698 cm) of snow. Taking isolated climate events and calling it global warning doesn't work for me. I need more info from Scientists who don't stand to gain millions in Consulting fees, think about it-those who give out the dire warnings are the first who will be hired to solve the problem. It doesn't sound like "Sound" science but more like a golden opportunity.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Tue 6 Feb, 2007 07:54 am
@mousy,
Looks like we see just about the same thing. I don't think we are speeding it up much though. We are supposedly talking about a .2 or .7 degree of temperature change so far.
I like the way they promoted it on the media, so definiate and dooming. Yet not a word from a scientist. Yet advertise it as being scientific?
0 Replies
 
Red cv
 
  1  
Reply Tue 6 Feb, 2007 04:19 pm
@mousy,
I concur, it's about money and who will get the contracts to Consult on how to reverse Global Warming and in ten years time we will be informed we've been duped and all that tax payer dollars will have been spent making "So called Scientist filthy rich".
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Tue 6 Feb, 2007 09:27 pm
@mousy,
Can you imagine what a cash cow it will be for the Gloom and doomers. I expect worth billions if not trillions. You think oil for food was a scam, oh boy.
0 Replies
 
Red cv
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Feb, 2007 03:13 pm
@mousy,
I'm a bit of a hippy, I compost and I recycle. All my furniture is at least one hundred years old, I dumpster dive. Would that qualify me for one of those yummy consult jobs?
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Feb, 2007 09:27 pm
@mousy,
If it were up to me you could have any job you want.
0 Replies
 
Red cv
 
  1  
Reply Sat 10 Feb, 2007 07:14 pm
@mousy,
LOL the nay sayers would hang us from a tree, after they unlocked their bodies from it that is. In Canada the panic over "Global warming" is frightening, it's all over the news and in the papers. It reminds me of Henny Penny, "The sky is falling, the sky is falling". Ye gads, chill it's minus 26 and we've had precipitation everyday this month. Global warming, I wish.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Sat 10 Feb, 2007 07:36 pm
@mousy,
It;s a billion dollar industry just waiting to happen. Chance's are it will be a democrat at the reigns, oh wait, Al Gore already has the job, LOL.
0 Replies
 
Ann cv
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Feb, 2007 06:14 pm
@mousy,
Have any of the doom-mongers of global warming, (which is simply a political ploy to throw us off the scent of other major issues such as Iraq and terrorism) Sad remembered their science about sunspot activity?

There are many links to this on the Web, and I will try to locate some tomorrow - however, our little planet, and all the planets in our solar system are affected deeply but any activity within the sun.

More flares, bigger sunspots signal climate changes a century or two later (not sure about time scale without looking at link and it is late)

As in Canada, also in UK, deathly panic, and those who are easily frightened cannot see it is all about Big Brother keeping you afraid so He can be in control!

Ann
0 Replies
 
Curmudgeon
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Feb, 2007 04:48 am
@mousy,
News from England about another study that sort of debunks "global warming ". An experiment that hints we are wrong on this subject .
From The Times Online

This article has some interesting things to say about the science involved as well as the regrettable ignorance of how science works enjoyed by the believers .

Quote:
"When politicians and journalists declare that the science of global warming is settled, they show a regrettable ignorance about how science works. We were treated to another dose of it recently when the experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Summary for Policymakers that puts the political spin on an unfinished scientific dossier on climate change due for publication in a few months? time. They declared that most of the rise in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to man-made greenhouse gases. "

"The small print explains ?very likely? as meaning that the experts who made the judgment felt 90% sure about it. Older readers may recall a press conference at Harwell in 1958 when Sir John Cockcroft, Britain?s top nuclear physicist, said he was 90% certain that his lads had achieved controlled nuclear fusion. It turned out that he was wrong. More positively, a 10% uncertainty in any theory is a wide open breach for any latterday Galileo or Einstein to storm through with a better idea. That is how science really works."


"Enthusiasm for the global-warming scare also ensures that heatwaves make headlines, while contrary symptoms, such as this winter?s billion-dollar loss of Californian crops to unusual frost, are relegated to the business pages. The early arrival of migrant birds in spring provides colourful evidence for a recent warming of the northern lands. But did anyone tell you that in east Antarctica the Ad?lie penguins and Cape petrels are turning up at their spring nesting sites around nine days later than they did 50 years ago? While sea-ice has diminished in the Arctic since 1978, it has grown by 8% in the Southern Ocean. "


The experiment ?
Quote:
After long delays in scraping together the funds for an experiment, Svensmark and his small team at the Danish National Space Center hit the jackpot in the summer of 2005.

In a box of air in the basement, they were able to show that electrons set free by cosmic rays coming through the ceiling stitched together droplets of sulphuric acid and water. These are the building blocks for cloud condensation. But journal after journal declined to publish their report; the discovery finally appeared in the Proceedings of the Royal Society late last year.


The jist of the experiment is to debunk the idea that meteorologists have held that cosmic rays from the sun and other stars cause more or less cloud formation depending on sun cycles , etc. The experiment disproves that theory .Solar cycles have caused most if not all climate changes , including warm ages and ice ages .
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Feb, 2007 07:49 am
@mousy,
Lets see the so called scientists debunk his experiment. My guess is they will never read it. So they can maintain they little scam.
0 Replies
 
Ann cv
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Feb, 2007 11:09 am
@mousy,
Also, another point now having read the previous posts, in Britian, 2000 years ago, when the Romans invaded, they brought with them Vines to make wine - and grew them in the North of England, nortoriously cold and damp place NOW - but THEN, much warmer and vines were able to flourish.

Just a wee point to show how the climate changes naturally through the centuries.

Ann
0 Replies
 
Red cv
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Feb, 2007 01:47 pm
@mousy,
It's minus 26, global warming is real dah I don't think so. Red adjusts her tin foil turkey roaster.
0 Replies
 
Dmizer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Apr, 2007 02:13 pm
@mousy,
Global warming is a reality. It's an observable, measurable, empirical, scientific fact. Let's all say it together: "Prince Charles, Ted Turner, Al Gore -- you're all right! The climate is getting hotter."

Yes, the Earth is warming, but human activity has nothing to do with it. The Earth's climate has been growing warmer since the end of the last Ice Age, around 10,000 years ago, long before the internal combustion engine, Exxon, SUVs, Halliburton, Democrat congressmen, or other alleged human sources of so-called greenhouse gasses.

The problem with the global warming fear-mongers is their utter lack of historical or geophysical perspective. They're not unlike Charlie Brown's sister Sally, who opened a Sunday school essay: "In Church History, it's important to start at the beginning. Our pastor was born in . . ." For the global warming crowd, the history of the Earth's climate apparently began the day they were born and any deviation from their lifetime's experienced "norm" is met with arm-waving, garment-rending, hair-on-fire hysterics. Every hurricane, heat wave, drought, or snow storm is loudly boomed as nature lashing out and striking back at industrial society.

When the climate doomsayers point to North America's receding glaciers, for example, as evidence of human-induced global warming, they conveniently neglect to observe that 12,000 years ago everything from Wisconsin and Massachusetts north to the pole was covered by a mile-thick sheet of ice. Canada was one vast hockey rink. The retreat of the ice sheet opened a corridor for Siberians to migrate into North America by walking across the Bering land bridge. As the ice caps melted due to global warming the ocean level rose hundreds of feet. Vast coastal areas disappeared under rising seas, submerging the land bridge beneath the Bering Sea and cutting off Asia from America, along with its human and animal populations.

Where once polar bears frolicked in what today is central Illinois, the bruins now have skedaddled along with the glacial ice sheets to Hudson's Bay. Was this a disaster for the bears? Hardly. It's all part of the normal climatic cycle of global warming and cooling that has been taking place for several million years. Animals and humans long since have learned to adapt to such climate changes, some of which occurred with startling rapidity. The onset of an Ice Age can occur in as short a span as a few decades, and periods of warming can unfold just as suddenly. So an increase of a degree or two over a century, as the meeting of the climatically challenged in Montreal this week predict, is scarcely cause for panic.

Among scientists it's hotly debated why about 3 million years ago the Earth suddenly entered into an extended cycle of advancing and retreating Ice Ages each lasting from 40,000 to100,000 years. By contrast, during the 100 million year-long Age of the Dinosaurs, the planet was very much warmer than it is today. While T Rex roamed present-day Montana looking for a tasty Hadrosaurus to dine on, the Earth had no polar ice caps at all.

Some scientists now believe the current cycle of Ice Ages was triggered when the tectonic plate carrying the India subcontinent crashed into Asia, thrusting up the Himalayas and disturbing the global air currents that control the weather. Other climatologists have detected a relationship between the relative brightness of the sun and Earth's climate. The sun goes through lengthy cycles of sunspot activity, and the changing amount of solar radiation reaching our planet has an enormous influence on climate, many times greater than any imaginable human industrial activity. Moreover, our entire solar system oscillates up and down, above and below the plane of the Milky Way, over a period of 600,000 years in a galactic waltz that may influence the global climate. Volcanic eruptions also dramatically alter Earth's climate. A single large eruption can lower the global temperature by several degrees. The 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia produced "a year without summer." Some really huge eruptions have been big enough to spark a new Ice Age.

Human beings, afflicted with temporal myopia, habitually view their immediate circumstances as "normal" and look upon any departure from the perceived "norm" as abnormal, something extraordinary to be feared. But in fact, even over the relatively brief course of human history the climate has undergone significant change. A centuries-long period of unusually warm weather called the Medieval Optimum lasted from A.D. 900 to A.D. 1300. During this period agriculture flourished and populations boomed. England rivaled France in wine production. Vikings colonized North America.

Beginning around 1350, however, the Earth was plunged into the Little Ice Age that stretched into the middle of the 19th Century. Crops failed, famine and disease swept Europe. American newspapers, journals and diaries of the 17th and 18th centuries routinely recorded bitterly cold winters (much colder than those of the 20th Century), prodigious blizzards, and northern rivers freezing solid. The Little Ice Age drove the Viking colonies out of Greenland and Newfoundland. The Thames and the Hudson froze solid. Remember Washington's heroic crossing of the ice-choked Delaware in December 1776 to attack the Hessians at Trenton? We're still warming up from this mini-Ice Age and doing just fine, thank you.

The global warming militants persist in talking about "normal" and "abnormal" weather. But there is no such thing as "normal" climate. The Earth's climate is constantly changing, heating up and cooling down. Sea levels rise and fall. Polar caps advance and retreat.

Our planet's atmosphere is an incredibly dynamic and complex engine the intricate workings of which we only dimly understand. Since climatologists cannot agree what caused the sudden onset of the Ice Age cycle, computerized predictions about what the climate will be in future decades are simply guesswork dressed up to appear scientific. A single large volcanic eruption, another Krakatoa for instance, can reverse all the data and institute a period of global cooling, as such events have repeatedly done in our not too distant past.

Super volcanoes, mega-earthquakes, tsunamis, enormous landslides, Ice Ages, sudden changes in climate, ever meteor impacts - all these things are normal, if infrequent, events in our planet's physical history. They only appear unusual because their period of occurrence tends to exceed the typical human lifespan. Hence when they do occur they appear unnatural or extraordinary, like last December's tsunami in the Indian Ocean or this year's hurricanes. Once people blamed such natural events on devils or demons; now we blame Big Oil and the family mini-van.
0 Replies
 
Curmudgeon
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Apr, 2007 08:01 pm
@mousy,
I agree !
0 Replies
 
markx15
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 Apr, 2007 04:31 am
@mousy,
GW is something very real if you live South of the Equator, we spent an entire month under heavy rain, then the next without one drop, 30 days without anything, and now we have been almost 15 days again without rain, I can say that this has never happened where I live. All prospects point to my home city being mostly submerdged in the next century, that reason alone is enough for to try many things in order to decrease these effects so that my grandchildren might come to know this city, come to know me, for are we all not mearly a product of our life experiences?
0 Replies
 
Pinochet73
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 Apr, 2007 05:56 pm
@mousy,
Well....how about stop shopping down the rainforest, for starters?
0 Replies
 
 

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