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World Series Statistics

 
 
sadole8
 
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 03:11 pm
What is the probability that a team (either A or B) wins the series in exactly 6 games, given that one team (either A or B) won both the first and second game?
Prob (A winning an individual game)= .68
Prob (B winning an individual game) = .32
 
joefromchicago
 
  2  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 03:35 pm
@sadole8,
Is one of these teams the Milwaukee Brewers? Because that would affect my answer.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:04 pm
Name the only player ever to hit into an all Cuban double play combination.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:07 pm
@Setanta,
What are the odds of that?
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:11 pm
Gazillions to one . . . hint, it was the infield of the Washington Senators . . .
0 Replies
 
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:11 pm
@joefromchicago,
Joe made me laugh.

Laughing

(I'm taking other than the cubbies in this one.)
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:16 pm
OK . . . as a hint, that sucked . . . here's a more helpful hint . . . this unhappy player later became the manager of the Cardinals . . .
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:25 pm
@Setanta,
Joe Torre?
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:27 pm
@realjohnboy,
No.

I'm surprised, i'd have thought that hint would be a dead give away . . .
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:29 pm
@Setanta,
You are assuming we know something about baseball. How about Whitey Herzog?
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:31 pm
No.

Knowing something about politics would help . . . Castro came to power in 1960 . . .
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:34 pm
@Setanta,
Mike Jorgensen?
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:38 pm
No.

I'm flabbergasted . . . pretty soon, someone will get it by process of elimination . . .
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:40 pm
@Setanta,
Johnny Keane? What are the odds of my going 0-3?
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 04:46 pm
No.


The odds, apparently, were 100%.
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 05:32 pm
Jose Valdivieso and Reno Bertoia...I think I was at that game...
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 06:39 pm
@sadole8,
sadole8 wrote:

What is the probability that a team (either A or B) wins the series in exactly 6 games, given that one team (either A or B) won both the first and second game?
Prob (A winning an individual game)= .68
Prob (B winning an individual game) = .32

Let's look at from the point of view of one of the teams whose probability of winning is P and the probablity of losing is P'. In order to meet your requirements, then the team must either a) win the first two games, win only one of the next two, then win the sixth game or b) lose the first two, then win the next four.

a) Prob of winning the first two = P^2
Prob of winning only one of the next three = 3 P P'^2
Prob of winning the last game = P
-- total probability of this scenario = 3 P^4 P'^2

b) Prob of losing two then winning four = P'^2 P^4

Compute for team A = 3 (.68)^4 (.32)^2 + (.32)^2 (.68)^4 = 8.76%
Compute for team B = 3 (.32)^4 (.68)^2 + (.68)^2 (.32)^4 = 1.94%

Total = 10.7%
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2010 06:40 pm
umless it's the cubbies...

(it is a world series question)
0 Replies
 
Region Philbis
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Mar, 2010 04:24 am
@Setanta,

tony larussa?
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Mar, 2010 05:30 am
Nope

Jeeze . . . i really thought that clue would be a dead give away . . .
 

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