@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
You can, of course, scroll through it or vote it down.
As if! I look forward to reading it.
@realjohnboy,
Looks like Ana is planning to come right up the West coast of Florida. Only question is whether it'll even be considered a 'storm' by the time it gets there, or just a 'tropical depression.'
Well, since Ana is that lovely shade of turquoise, that means she's predicted to come in as a tropical depression. So lots and lots of rain, but hopefully not too much in the way of wind damage or storm surge.
@mac11,
Yeah, but she slows way down and takes her sweet time running up the FL coast. Lots and Lots of rain for sure.
It's possible the the trip over the islands will do her in and she'll become subtropical. That doesn't mean she won't bring a lot of water but we may lose the tracking if she's no longer a TS.
Bill, on the other hand, is looking interesting.
If they skip Texas altogether this year, I promise not to complain about it.
@edgarblythe,
But Edgar, New Mexico needs rain. That means Texas needs a hurricane.
Hmm. The NHC has posted this minutes ago: Tropical Depression ANA Dissipating As Of 5pm EDT.
Cone projection has been discontinued.
Go figure.
With regards to Bill: I don't want to see any little westward bobble by Saturday. I am in VA.
The longitude on Sat is about 67 degrees W. That should put it off the NE coast later on.
@realjohnboy,
Bill is now a category 2 storm with a visible eyewall. He is expected to reach cat 3 by tomorrow and maintain that strength for the next few days. Impact on the US should be restricted to heavy wave action along the eastern coast. Greater impact will be felt by Bermuda as Bill makes a curve to the north.
@JPB,
Bill is just 1mph in wind speed from becoming a cat3 storm. The projection is now that he will continue to intensify to cat4 status over the next 24 hours.
Significant beach erosion can be expected from strong wave activity anywhere from the Carolinas to Maine and the meritime provinces of Canada. Landfall could occur in Maine or New Brunswick early next week as a cat1 or cat2 storm.
That eyewall is impressive!
@JPB,
Thought I'd post this snippet from Dr Master's blog at the WeatherUnderground
Quote:Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Wowsah! That's some mighty big waves!!!
STORY TIME -
It was on August 14th, 1969, that the Weather Service located a huge storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane tracking back then was still in its infancy. The storm was big and strong. The authorities managed to spread the word and some quarter of a million people evacuated the Mississippi coastal area.
Hurricane Camille came ashore on August 17th. She was a Category 5, with sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts up to 220 mph. The damage in the Biloxi area was bad. There were entire neighborhoods stripped of buildings down to their foundations. There were a lot of lives lost.
The images that showed up on TV were of that area, but Camille wasn't finished.
She weakened while crossing the rest of Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. And then she made an abrupt right hand turn and came into Virginia, with her winds largely dissipated.
And on August 19, 1969, forty years ago tonight, Camille tried to get over the Blue Ridge Mountains. She got stuck and Nelson County, VA was on the east slope of the mountains.
You A2Kers may think you don't know Nelson County, but in fact you do. The lovely Ms Letty in Florida grew up there. My screen-name is based on the old television show The Waltons. Earl Hamner grew up in Nelson County. The main character was JohnBoy (Richard Thomas). I grew up and still live in Charlottesville, 20 miles north.
On the night of August 19, 1969, Camille dumped 30" of rain in 5 hours on the hollows of Nelson County.
Do yall know what a hollow is? They are kind of like valleys but not at all wide. Perhaps a 1/2 mile wide. The roads are not paved, even today. Gravel, at best, or just dirt.
Back in 1969 the hollows and the residents would be suspicious at best and perhaps hostile if you ventured in. I can talk Southern, but I would not be welcome. Nobody knew too much about the people who lived in Bacon or Blackwell's or Sugar hollows.
30" of rain in 5 hours. Right over a particular hollow that had little Davis Creek running through it. It was so small that you could step over it on normal days. The elevation at the top of that hollow was 4,000 feet. A few miles away, where Davis Creek emptied into the Tye River, the elevation was more like a 1,000 feet.
The dirt in that hollow couldn't hang on. It, and the trees and the houses and barns, cows and people were washed downstream on the now raging Davis Creek and into the Tye River.
The sheriff of Nelson County got to the bridge on Rt 29 - which is the major N-S highway crossing the Tye. He talked later about not having to use his flashlight to see what was going on. The lightning was so intense that he could see the flood water coming over the bridge, and seeing houses and cows and stuff slamming into the railing.
The first report of how bad this would turn out to be came from a U.S. Park Ranger who made his way down from the top of the mountain. He described it as a moonscape; a hollow stripped down to bedrock.
The estimate is that 150 people died on August 19, 1969. 30 bodies of those known to be in the hollow have never been found. 10 bodies recovered have never been identified.
The Tye River flows in the James River which runs through Richmond, 70 miles to the east. Debris from the hollow was plucked out there. More was found in the Chesapeake Bay near where the Bay connects to the Atlantic
I didn't pay much attention to storms that year, rjb. I had been living with my brother Sam in Kansas City. My older brother died that year and we came down to Corpus Christi, where the family received all the attention. I heard of Camille, of course. It was stamped in my mind as a bad one. But, I never learned such details as are in your story before tonight. Thanks. Good reporting.
@realjohnboy,
Great story, rjb. I remember that name -- Hurricane Camille -- well. B'lieve it came up North as far as NYC and beyond into New England. But it was just a tropical storm by then, lots and lots of rain is about all. But I well recall that the newspapers were full of stories about the damage that Camille had done on its way up.
The computer models are showing that Bill may come closer to the New England/New Brunswick coast than originally thought. The upper level trough that was supposed to push Bill NNE is stuck in the midwest allowing Bill to continue a more westerly path. In the meantime, high surf and major beach erosion is expected in from the Carolinas through New England.
The NHS five day projection cone now includes southern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in the area of probability for landfall.
Bermuda may get lucky! Good for them as Bill curves around that little island.
@JPB,
Drat - looks like our tropical paradise may endure a spat of rain next week.
