Rasmussen Polls and Fox News.

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Some people keep citing Rasmussen polls, as if they had some kind of credibility-- I think Rasmussen is a biased propaganda machine and their polls are worthless. Then again, I think the same way about Fox news.

My theory is that people who respect Rasmussen are the same people who think Fox news is a real news organization.

I would like to test this theory.

Is there anyone who both respects Rasmussen as a real polling firm and thinks that Fox news is a clownish propaganda machine? (If you think Fox is a real news organization, then this question is not for you).

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[+3] - realjohnboy - 07/27/2009I'll take a crack at that. I don't have a tv so obviously can't comment too much about Fox. I have read some of the links to Fox stories and I would conclude that I, for what it is worth, don't...

@ebrown p,

I'll take a crack at that. I don't have a tv so obviously can't comment too much about Fox. I have read some of the links to Fox stories and I would conclude that I, for what it is worth, don't have a high opinion of that organization.
We have gone round and round about Rasmassen's polling over on the Obama thread. I think most us agreed that in the election polling they were at or near the top in accurately predicting the outcome. You can scroll back many many pages if you want to see that discussion. I am confident I am correct in making that statement.
So why is Rasmussen so prominently cited here? My fingerprints are all over that. Every couple of weeks I would update President Obama's Approval Index using Rasmussen. I chose them because I am known to be very liberal and didn't want to be accused of picking a poll that is perceived to have a liberal bias. Rasmussen was an outfit most of us could live with. That is the pony most of us agreed to ride.
Rasmussen typically uses a sample of 1500 "likely voters" vs "registered voters" or "adults eligible to vote." That can affect the outcome of a poll. They tend to poll 500 people a day for 3 days (a rolling poll) to update the Approval Index. The idea there is to prevent one day's news from causing gyrations.
So that is the story. I chose Rasmussen to try to protect my reputation as being as fair and balanced as I can be. In addition. once we went with Rasmussen the important thing is to watch the trend. We may disagree that Mr Obama's Approval Index is -10. Maybe it is -6 or -14. But we know that, for the last week or so, he has probably been slipping.
I am sorry for such a long response. That is the history of Rasmussen being on this area of A2K.

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@realjohnboy,

Nice reply

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@ebrown p,

ebrown p wrote:

I think Rasmussen is a biased propaganda machine and their polls are worthless. Then again, I think the same way about Fox news.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2252/2352022690_3c727da24e.jpg?v=0

ebrown p wrote:

My theory is that people who respect Rasmussen are the same people who think Fox news is a real news organization.

I would like to test this theory.

Is there anyone who both respects Rasmussen as a real polling firm and thinks that Fox news is a clownish propaganda machine?

You sure you're not a scientist?

http://www.civfanatics.com/gallery/files/2/9/9/7/9/ScientistScetch081005.jpg

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I also go to Rasmussen for data on Presidential Approval. Wikipedia gives the following information. "Slate" and The "Wall Street Journal" both rank Rasmussen as an outstanding polling site. A Fordham University analysis rates Rasmussen as the most accurate site with regard to prediction of the last presidential election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

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Some may indeed declare Fox News to be a clownish propaganda machine but, unfortunately, it attracts millions of viewers.

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@ebrown p,

ebrown p wrote:

Some people keep citing Rasmussen polls, as if they had some kind of credibility-- I think Rasmussen is a biased propaganda machine and their polls are worthless. Then again, I think the same way about Fox news.

My theory is that people who respect Rasmussen are the same people who think Fox news is a real news organization.

I would like to test this theory.

Is there anyone who both respects Rasmussen as a real polling firm and thinks that Fox news is a clownish propaganda machine? (If you think Fox is a real news organization, then this question is not for you).

What are your reasons for doubting Rasmussen?

I don't mean I either doubt it or don't, I know nothing about it, but I see arguments about it, and I am interested.

1 Reply

@dlowan,

First, compare the headlines on Rasmussen to the headlines on reputable non-partisan polling sites (Gallup for example). On Gallup you will find good news for Democrats (i.e. Obama is seen as a decisive leader) and good news for Republicans (American wary that Obama is spending to much). On Rasmussen... almost every headline is about how Americans support conservative/Republican policies.

Second, Rasmussen polls are consistent.

Third the summaries for their polls are spun to accentuate conservative politics, and sometimes are blatantly misleading.

There is a place for partisan organizations when it comes to policy or political strategy. I stay away from partisan outlets (even those on my side) when it comes to polling.

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@ebrown p,

Quote:

Some people keep citing Rasmussen polls, as if they had some kind of credibility-- I think Rasmussen is a biased propaganda machine and their polls are worthless. Then again, I think the same way about Fox news.

Rasmussen's polling tends to be pretty good. But like all polls you have to look at the actual questions and results and not the spin put on it after the polling.

I think Rasmussen tends to lean its spin to one side, probably to generate business. The example I find frustrating and ridiculous is the strongly approve vs strongly disapprove chart they put out on presidential approval ratings.
A take on it here -
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/07/the-rasmussen-presidential-approval-index-is-this-newer-measurement-worth-anything.php

In looking at Rasmussen's site, it seems they are spinning everything. A story about their polling on the number of people that identify by party trumpets increases and decreases in party affiliation but fails to mention that the 1-2 point shift is well within any margin of error for the poll so is really meaningless.

Rasmussen does seem to do a lot of partisan polling and publish the results as if it has some meaning. A poll finds most people in the US don't like Pelosi? Wow... That's a surprise? But it fails to mention that GOP leaders poll even lower.

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@marsz,

Quote:

A Fordham University analysis rates Rasmussen as the most accurate site with regard to prediction of the last presidential election.

This has been pointed out to you before Possum. The Fordham analysis uses preliminary data and is off by almost 4 points from the actual totals. Rasmussen was the one most skewed toward the GOP but was about middle of the pack in accuracy compared to final numbers.

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Reports by Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.

http://www.google.com/search?q=Wikipedia-Rassmussen+Polling&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7DKUS_en

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"And for the record, Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there. So don't count him out."

Our little leftist-socialist friends fill their trousers when Rasmussen posts a poll with negative numbers for the messiah...BUT, the article is correct in stating Rasmussen's numbers were nearly identical to the final margin in 2008. They were in 2004 ALSO.

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@ebrown p,

http://www.lasvegasmixx.com/images/rasmussen-polls-fraud.gif

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11447809@N08/4689214974/

Rasmussen Reports - the best poll "results" that money can buy - a story of bias, manipulation, and fraud.

Scott Rasmussen has chosen to forgo any pretense at objectivity and now caters exclusively to right-wing and Republican blogs, news organizations, web sites, and, of course, the GOP itself.

It is a new business model that works well for him, both financially and personally. His poll results are "GOP feel good" products intended to keep his wealthy patrons happy.

Quote:

Nate Silver, Fifethirtyeight.com, April 17, 2010

The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen's polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters. This appears to create a substantial house effect, irrespective of whether Rasmussen subsequently applies a likely voter screen.

It also appears to be a relatively new facet of their polling. If one looks at the partisan identification among all adults in polls conducted in September-November 2008, Rasmussen gave the Democrats at 6.5-point edge, versus an average of 8.7 points for the other pollsters; their house effect was marginal if there was one at all.

Techniques like weighting can correct for some of this response bias, but it can be an imperfect defense, particularly for pollsters like Rasmussen who have very low response rates (because of their "flash" one-night samples and their use of IVR technology).

If, on the other hand, this is a feature rather than a bug, it requires a more robust explanation from Rasmussen. It is not sufficient, after all, to believe that Rasmussen is getting it right: you also have to believe that almost everyone else is getting it wrong.

Their use of a likely voter model alone is not sufficient to explain the differences. Citing Rasmussen's success in calling past election outcomes, which is formidable, is also somewhat non-responsive, since their house effect was not so substantial in past election cycles.

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Rasmussen Polls and Fox News.

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