COALITION GOVERNMENT?

@ehBeth,

Do you feel the Liberals could win an election with Ignatieff at the helm right now?

My thinking (I'm probably wrong, I frequently am) is that he'll wait for a while, when the time is better. The general population isn't in a good mood for yet another costly election, especially so soon after the last one. Voters may yet give Harper the majority he's seeking, if one does come around.

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@Reyn,

lunchroom talk today was about all of this - the concensus was that the Liberals would have got a majority if Ignatieff had been leader last time round - and that the Liberals will get a majority next election.

now, you have to take into account the location (west-end Toronto) - not Conservative voters - ever. A fair number of people said they'd voted Green in the last election as they never vote Conservative and couldn't vote Liberal this time.

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@ehBeth,

Just as a sidebar to this, CKNW out in BC had a poll yesterday:

Do you want Ignatieff to be leader in a coalition government?

No 85%
Yes 15%

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@Reyn,

reyn wrote :

Quote:

Do you feel the Liberals could win an election with Ignatieff at the helm right now?

My thinking (I'm probably wrong, I frequently am) is that he'll wait for a while, when the time is better. The general population isn't in a good mood for yet another costly election, especially so soon after the last one. Voters may yet give Harper the majority he's seeking, if one does come around.

watched the CCB video clips of the runup to the present kerfuffle .
imo flaherty - as minister of finance - led harper down the garden path (as he did in the harris government in ontario) .
imo he wants to see himself vindicated for the truly messy finances he left behind in ontario . i'd think he'd rather see the conservatives go down in flames than back off .
i sure hope harper realizes how flaherty wrecked the ontario conservative party and puts him on a short leash .
(i could never understand why harper brought so many of the ontario , harris conservative party ministers into his government - surely there are more qualified people in the conservative circles ??? ) .
staying tuned !
hbg

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while this is not directly connected to a possible coalition government , it is something the government - whichever one - will have to deal with .

read complete article here :
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hbBOBmGzDxIvrxsQO4RBuBgOAFoA

Quote:

Top court says Ottawa broke law in financing EI
1 hour ago

OTTAWA " The Supreme Court of Canada says the federal government broke the law in financing the employment insurance system by transforming premiums paid by workers and employers into an unconstitutional tax.

In a 7-0 judgment, the court ruled Thursday the former Liberal governments of Jean Chretien and Paul Martin collected EI contributions illegally in 2002, 2003 and 2005.

In those years, EI rates were set directly by cabinet without proper authorization from Parliament, violating the ancient constitutional principle of no taxation without representation.
----------------------------------------------------------------
The court issued no order for repayment and suspended the effect of its judgment for one year in order to give the federal government time to sort out the legislative tangle.

the clock is ticking !
i bet no government will want to give that money back and will probably draft legislation to "make it legal" .
hbg

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Well, i was apprehensive about Ignatieff, and my worst fears seem to have been realized. It appears that the Liberals will compound with the Tories, and pass their budget. I think the coalition is stillborn. Ignatieff got what he wanted--he got rid of Dion, and now he's the Liberal leader. He doesn't care about the rest.

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@Setanta,

Set appears to be onboard with what I said earlier in this thread? Wink

I still stick with what I said.

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@Reyn,

and that's the end of me voting Liberal federally

~~~

I did hear back from Maria Minna last week. It was a pretty carefully parsed response. Not at all satisfactory.

It looks like I'll be actively campaigning against the federal Liberals next time round. Since we're in a reasonably tight riding (and go NDP provincially), there's a chance to change things here.

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@ehBeth,

I did wonder if you'd get a response at all.

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As a Western Canadian, I at first took an interest in the goings on, but it soon became abundantly clear that the net effect of a Canadian government shuffle would be vastly overshadowed by the global economic liquidity crisis / commodity price decline.

So the longer term net effect (if any) of a Canadian government shuffle would be an exacerbation of the decline in the Loony versus a basket of major currencies; something that was happening in any case due to the above.

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@Chumly,

chumley wrote :

Quote:

an exacerbation of the decline in the Loony

not sure if i should favour a much stronger loonie . our manufacturing business would suffer even more .
of course , oil , lumber and all other raw material exports should bring in more money - providing the buyers have any real money left .

(and a lower loonie against the euro would increse our german pension - as long as germany has any momey left ... ) .

since canada is really just a bit-player in the world economy , i think it'll be the other countries that will make the decision for us .

btw stock analysts claim that canadian share values are about 40 % BELOW true value - but if no one wants to buy it's just paper value anyway .
will have to sleep on it - which won't be difficult .
hbg

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@hamburger,

Your point about the strength of the loony is very well taken--it has hit Canadian manufacturers hard, as the United States is Canada's largest trading partner, accounting for more trade than all other trade partners combined.

Quote:

. . . will have to sleep on it - which won't be difficult .

hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe . . .

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an $0.80 loonie is about perfect

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@djjd62,

Agreed . . .

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@ehBeth,

ehBeth wrote:

and that's the end of me voting Liberal federally

So, have you been won over to the dark side (NDP) now? Shocked

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It's the shorter term currency volatility that can cause the most problems.

The relative price of the Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar (good example being our major trading partner) could be compensated for, to some fair degree, if there was an expected long term stability in the two country's currency differentials (not to say that's probable however).

For example, if the Canadian Dollar was to get too high (as perceived by the BOC) and if it could be assumed it would stay that way on a long term basis (not much chance of that as discussed but bear with me) then the BOC, through the issuance of debt instruments, combined with lowering the short end on rates, could offset the effect of a too-high Canuck Buck.

So in a sense, one relative currency differential is not inherently better than another per se, it’s the shorter term currency volatility that plays the more pivotal role in effective trade.

Now, I am not suggesting fixed currency differentials, as that opens up another can of worms, if you deny the longer term forces of supply / demand. And I am not suggesting that it’s even possible to have long term stable currency differentials that central banks can then act upon in a predictable fashion (the ECU tries), but it does bring to light the fact that currency differentials alone are not perhaps as important as shorter term currency volatility in terms of mutually beneficial trade.

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@Joeblow,

Maria's a good egg. I've already voted for her a couple of times when I wasn't sure I liked the leader of the party.

Now it looks like Ignatieff will go too far for me to continue to voting Liberal, regardless of how positive I feel about our local candidate.

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@Mame,

Mame wrote:

Okay, you're on. I think the budget won't pass, the coalition will be asked to form the next govt, so the only thing we agree on is that there will be no election.

Eat crow? Is that it? Pffft! Come on!

Whoever loses has to start a thread about how WRONG they were Admit defeat in whatever way they chose but acknowledge how RIGHT the winner was - heh heh heh

Reyn wrote:

Whoever loses has to start a thread about how WRONG they were. Admit defeat in whatever way they chose but acknowledge how RIGHT the winner was.

The wager is that Harper's budget passes in January. There will be NO election, and the coalition will vanish into thin air.

I say Harper's budget passes.

Mame says it won't and the coalition will take over power.

Bumping this thread up for tomorrow's budget. Wink

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I wondered if anyone would revisit this thread, under the circumstances. I'll admit i was rather surprised to see that Reyn was using to set up an "i told you so" situation. You're bad man, Reyn . . .

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@Setanta,

my guess is that the biggest game of "playing chicken" will be going on in ottawa shortly ... this "rooster" is just hoping that he won't be the "chicken" being chased in front of the truck ... i doubt anyone will be given a choice .
hbg

notice that both parties have lifted off the rails already ... an omen ?

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/j/x/1/mccain_playing_chicken.jpg

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