34
   

Let GM go Bankrupt

 
 
okie
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 10:02 am
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
,and the price of an entry-level car has been remarkably stable for more than eighty years now, since the mid-1920s, on the order of three months income for an average family, despite regulation. And what you get for your three months work today is a hell of a lot better car than a 1925 Chevrolet.

I will have to doubt your assertion that an entry level car today only costs 3 months income for an average family. Do you have any statistics to back that up? Are you talking a new car or used car? And secondly, sure, anything made today should be better than a 1925 version, with or without the government, a new refrigerator should be better than a 1925 icebox. The vast majority of the improvements from a 1925 car to today's car is totally independent of government, and in fact it is debatable whether some of the government stuff actually aided or hindered advancement. Much of the effort thrown at meeting government standards might have been used to improve auto technology in more meaningful or more impacting ways. I do not know that, but it would be interesting to reset the clock without government mileage standards for example to see what would have happened.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 10:15 am
@okie,
Quote:
The vast majority of the improvements from a 1925 car to today's car is totally independent of government


Wrong

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 02:35 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Ha ha, cyclops, you have to be kidding? Using your logic, I suppose all of the improvements in agricultural equipment would also be due to government, such as tractors, combines, and all of the implements used? How about airplanes too? Computers and software? After all, using your logic, only government brings about the most important improvements. At least, you are good for a few laughs, cyclops.
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 02:38 pm
@okie,


Laughing Using 'cyclops' and 'logic' in the same sentence is rather funny.
okie
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 02:41 pm
@H2O MAN,
I flubbed up big time, H2OMAN. I should have used a different term to describe cyclops thought process, such as simply "thought process," or "thinking," however those words even seem oxymoronish for their usage in cyclops case.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  0  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 10:26 pm
@okie,
Naive
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  0  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 10:30 pm
@MontereyJack,
I just checked the median income for an American family of four. According to the Census Bureau, it is $60,000. That means a gross monthly income of $5,000. Three months income falls a little short of buying a new car but it can be done with five months income.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  0  
Reply Tue 1 Jun, 2010 11:35 pm
Take a look in the car section of your Sunday paper, okie. I'm using a lower figure than POM, about $13K for three months work.

2010 Chrysler PT Cruiser, $12,899
new 2010 Nissan Sentra $12,590
new 2010 Nissan Versa $9988
new 2010 Kia Forte !11,995
New 2010 Corolla $13,998
21010 Cobalt $11,895
2010 Ford Focus $11,999
(all prices, Boston Globe, 5/30/10).
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  0  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 01:03 am
And, yes, most of the developments in the last thirty plus years come pretty directly from meeting government standards. The shape of most modern cars, for one, high butt, lowered sloping front comes directly from wind tunnel tests to reduce drag to improve gas mileage--it was an unexpected shape. And engine design, which was kind of jackleg before--engineers realized they really didn't know a lot of things about what went on inside an internal combustion engine when the little bang happened,and they started investigating the combustion in detail, to reduce emissions and to get more power with less fuel. Which is why in the last few years we're getting WAY more than one horsepower per cubic inch--unheard of before that research push except in a few of the most exotic race cars, certainly not in a road car you can get off the showroom floor.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 08:52 am
@MontereyJack,
First of all, I disagree with your assumption that all efforts by engineers to improve gas mileage and efficiencies of engines are all entirely due to government standards. Such an assumption is based upon the assumption that there would have been no efforts along those lines without government standards imposed, and I do not think you have any evidence except your own biased opinion of what would have happened without government standards. You are assuming the free market would have had no effect at all upon the demands of the public in regard to gas mileage, but you have no evidence of that at all. In fact, I may surprise you by saying yes, government mpg standards may have had an effect, and if we admit the overall efficiencies were marginally improved, what about the possibility that if they had not been improved very marginally, the gasoline price rise may have been much more severe than it was, and then the overall free market effect of price may have affected consumer demand in terms of fuel efficiencies to the point of bringing about a more certain and forceful consumer demand change to the auto manufacturers, which in the long run I think is a more efficient driver of technological change than government mandates. I have just as much evidence for my "what if" scenario as you have for your "what if." After all, we do know that consumer demand in other industries is very very effective. One industry is the agricultural industry, where the equipment to plant, grow, and harvest crops has evolved very significantly, to be more efficient in many different ways, due to manufacturer innovation and consumer demand.

One point about your argument is interesting, MJ, that being that all of the innovation was due to government mandates. I don't agree with that, as I have stated, however, I would like to point out that such a scenario is actually very unhealthy to the overall advancement of technological improvements, because focusing too much effort into very narrow avenues of improvements may hinder what could be more productive research and improvement of technology in other avenues of improvement. In other words, some of the best discoveries may be ignored or overlooked because of an over-emphasis into very limited areas of technology, as artificially mandated by a government regulation. This very well could be one of the unintended consequences that often happens with artificially injected forces into the free market.

Now, in regard to the average family income, the term "average" has a far different meaning than the term "median." For example, you can have a few families making a couple million a year thrown into the mix of families making 30K per year, you can average them together to come up with a "median" income, which might be 60K per year, but it by no means indicates the average family in that group makes 60K. Also, I would also point out that some of the vehicles you are using for comparison do not consist of a whole lot, for example a Ford Focus is a very basic box on wheels, not to be compared with a mid-sized vehicle designed for a family of 4 or 5, which would cost considerably more, so when family income is cited as a basis for buying a vehicle, then perhaps you need to use family sized vehicles for comparison, not a commuter or third or fourth type cars for families. Aside from the above points, I would otherwise agree that the rise in cost of automobiles could have been worse than what they have been. However, I believe that the cost of vehicles would be considerably less without all the government mandates and union cost influences upon the industry.
MontereyJack
 
  0  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 09:35 am
Okie, you can "believe" all you want, however the data support me, and you are really engaging in "what if" based only on your ideology and not on what has actually happened.
Compare a 1960s car, basically two boxes, one on top of the other, with flashy details but no particular attention to aerodynamics, with a large-and-steadily-getting-larger, not terribly efficient, engine, with the cars today. Thw major thrust of the technology is different, and that is, in fact, due to attempts to meet government standards , and it has produced far better, more efficient, cleaner cars, with MAJOR improvements in gas mileage (not marginal, as you repeat), which are far safer (industry resisted seat belts, headrests, airbags)(and speaking of unintended consequences, the induatry bitterly resisted all of these mandated measures, till they found out the public really wanted them and they could use them to sell their cars), don't choke us(at least nowhere near as much) or cause mental retardation (lead).

I use "basic entry vehicle" because the kinds of cars produced today are very different than those of preceding decades--no custom coachbuilding for higher end cars, no SUVs, no minivans, and so on, but an entry vehicle has to work and today it still has to incorporate the government requirements. Actually the comparison works even with the most basic car built in the 1920s, the Model T, which hit an actual-dollars-paid, low of $290 in the mid-2os, and that was BASIC--bumpers and top extra, along with most everything else. In today's dollars and wage earning scale, that would run somewhat less than $18K, which widens the field even more.

You can argue counterfactuals all you want, but they are counterfactuals. They don't exist, they didn't exist. So you're basically making up your data and your argument, unconstrained by facts, can be anything you want it to be. That's pretty much what you're doing, okie.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  0  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 09:51 am
And arguing that things can have unintended consequence is true, but is also an excuse for doing nothing and just letting the future hit you in the face. You learn as much as you can, you evaluate your options using everything you know, you make the best plans you can, and then you do it. Sometimes you're wrong, often you;re right, sometimes, too, it works out much better than you plan or expect. That last is what happened with car regulations. It is also, for what it's worth, what happened with the govt's narrow focus (which you decry) on creating viable, directable lightweight (comparatively) rockets rather than building bigger boosters like the Soviets. That led to the computer you're using today, arguably one of the greatest social changes in the last thirty years.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 10:21 am
@okie,
We all know that when averages are discussed, that the listener needs to know whether said average is the mean, median or mode.

All median figures are averages but not all averages are medians.

Gee, I thought with your vaunted math skills that you would know that!
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 10:23 am
Quote:
After bankruptcy, GM, Chrysler turn the corner

By Steven Rattner
Tuesday, June 1, 2010

We don't need an aircraft carrier and "Mission Accomplished" banner, but isn't it time to agree that the auto rescue has been a success? A year after the government-sponsored bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler, both patients are alive and progressing well toward recovery.

Two weeks ago, GM reported its first quarterly profit in nearly three years: net income of $865 million on $31.5 billion in sales. A month earlier, Chrysler's first-quarter report included the news that the company had turned cash-flow positive after nearly bleeding to death in 2008.

Both companies are also doing better in the marketplace. Market-share declines have been arrested. Bloated inventories on dealers' lots have been reduced dramatically. Use of sales incentives such as rebates and interest-free financing -- the cocaine of the auto industry -- has been substantially reduced.

And the prices that the cars are fetching have risen sharply since last year: by $2,500 for GM and $2,400 for Chrysler. That means that the companies' historically poor images -- brand equity, in industry parlance -- have begun to improve.

How did this happen? First, the bankruptcies -- terrifying to everyone -- succeeded in wiping vast liabilities from the companies' balance sheets, more than $65 billion in the case of GM. The government task force that evaluated the industry leaders -- of which I was a part -- also insisted on a cold-blooded look at operating costs. Tough, conservative projections replaced years of rosy-scenario forecasting. As a result, GM cut its North American expenses by $8 billion per year.

In overseeing the restructurings, we insisted that assumptions about sales be very conservative. We wanted GM, which used to need to sell 16 million vehicles a year in the United States just to break even, to be profitable at volumes as low as 10 million. Happily, annual sales are running above 11 million and are likely to keep climbing. Accordingly, what would have been losses at "old GM" are now profits at shiny new GM.

None of this would have been sufficient without a fresh approach to management, particularly at GM. The new board, composed of individuals chosen for their private-sector expertise, has insisted on faster, more analytically rigorous decision making. Ed Whitacre, whom we recruited as chairman, has done a great job since becoming chief executive. He has shaken up the management team, bringing in a handful of talented outsiders and reassigning many insiders.

Consequently, the U.S. Treasury is well on its way to recovering most of the $81 billion that the government invested in the auto sector to prevent its collapse. (That includes money for other auto-related entities, such as the finance companies. Chrysler itself got around $8 billion from the Obama administration and $4 billion from the Bush administration.) Not surprisingly, partisans on both sides have elasticized the facts: GM has been proclaiming in ads that it has paid back the government loans "in full." While literally correct, this statement omits the fact that most of the government's investment in GM is in stock that it still holds.

Meanwhile, conservatives such as Sen. Charles Grassley, the ranking Republican on the Finance Committee, maintain that GM has paid back the government with government money. That's true, but only technically. We provided GM with a cash reserve -- to protect taxpayers' investment in the case of a prolonged auto recession -- that has now proved unneeded. The fact remains that the nation's largest automaker has outperformed our expectations -- increasing the amount of money that the government is likely to recover.

Calculating the value of the Treasury's holdings is straightforward because bonds of old GM, which are entitled to a sliver of equity in new GM, continue to trade. By that measure, Treasury's total potential recovery from the GM investment currently hovers around $40 billion, compared to an investment by the Obama administration of $36.1 billion. (An additional $13.4 billion of bridge financing was provided by President George W. Bush in late 2008.)

To be sure, much work remains. At GM, cultural change must continue, and a long-term CEO who is as capable as the 68-year-old Whitacre must be found. Chrysler, which the task force believed was the tougher challenge, has much riding on upcoming products, particularly the redesigned Jeep Grand Cherokee and the introduction later this year of small cars developed by its partner, Fiat.

The most important priority for the administration is to maintain its admirable hands-off policy with respect to the automakers' operations. And as the opportunity to cash out its stake grows nearer, the Treasury should take care to sell wisely. Bringing an end to government ownership of the auto industry is of great importance, but let's not have a fire sale. We owe that much to taxpayers.

Steven Rattner was counselor to the secretary of the Treasury and lead auto adviser for the administration. His book, "Overhaul: An Insider's Account of the Obama Administration's Emergency Rescue of the Auto Industry," is to be published in October.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/31/AR2010053101642.html

Cycloptichorn
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 12:18 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
While all that is good, I cant help but wonder how much of their profit (or loss) was due to overseas sales, especially Europe and Asia.

I would like to see the numbers after that is factored in.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 12:22 pm
@mysteryman,
mysteryman wrote:

While all that is good, I cant help but wonder how much of their profit (or loss) was due to overseas sales, especially Europe and Asia.

I would like to see the numbers after that is factored in.


Interesting, but does that matter?

Cycloptichorn
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 12:27 pm
@mysteryman,
Quote:

While all that is good, I cant help but wonder how much of their profit (or loss) was due to overseas sales, especially Europe and Asia
in GM's case china.

what was the bailout supposed to do? we don't know so we don't have any yardstick to use. Will this bailout stop or even slow down the long running trend of the dieing out of the US auto industry? Will Fiat be able to get Chrysler something to sell other than Jeep so that it can stay around even in the short run? We dont know that anything has been fixed other than the balance sheets for the moment, which is always going to happen when you tell companies that they no long need to pay their debts. Airlines are back for a new round of shedding debt every few years, is that what we are going to do with the auto industry as well?
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 12:29 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Yes.
If they made a profit overseas, but still lost money in the US, I am curious how much money they actually lost in the US market.

And by the same token, did the US profits (if any) balance out overseas losses.
And if they did, how much did they actually make in the US.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 12:33 pm
@mysteryman,
The last quarter GM claimed they earned 800 millions dollars in the US marketplace if memory serve me correctly.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  0  
Reply Wed 2 Jun, 2010 12:53 pm
@plainoldme,
plainoldme wrote:

We all know that when averages are discussed, that the listener needs to know whether said average is the mean, median or mode.

All median figures are averages but not all averages are medians.

Gee, I thought with your vaunted math skills that you would know that!
Do you really need t0 go into your pointless mode of criticizing my math skills? It is I that pointed out to MJ the fallacy of using a median and calling it an average, so apparently MJ did not know the difference when he used a median family income to define an average family. And apparently you did not catch it either until I pointed it out?
 

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