@edgarblythe,
i'm also keeping my eye on the weather, edgar
good luck to all
@Endymion,
Our local forecast calls for the storm to hit in between New Orleans and Houston. It will then bump a high pressure dome and stall. They expect it to turn, as a tropical storm or less and slowly move toward Houston. So, we will probably be spared the wind, but not the rain . New Orleans would be on the dirty side, and get lots of heavy rain.
Bear in mind, Gustav is far away enough that the forecast may change again.
@edgarblythe,
Right behind it is Hannah.I could be wrong, but it looks to be somewhat north just now of the track Gustav has followed.
@edgarblythe,
The computer models are all over the place with Hannah. No way of telling what she's gonna do.
@edgarblythe,
Quote:So, we will probably be spared the wind, but not the rain
Hope so re being spared the wind, edgar. Watching closely here.
Interesting that the prediction is for Gustav to build in 12 hours from a 4 to a 5, drop in 12 hours back to a 4 and stay at that for a while but then suddenly... a 1?
I'm hoping for the sheer on Hanna to continue, though I don't know if they are still talking about that being a leveler for her.
Hang on to your hats ... I'm headin' to shore.
@squinney,
Squinney: Hurricanes gain strength when they are over warm open water and lose strength pretty quickly when they go over land. Cuba will weaken it a bit but it then would regain that when it gets back into the gulf. Once it hits the US mainland it should slack off. I think the categories (3, 4, 5, or 1) relate mostly to wind, rather than amount of rainfall.
Thanks for posting the latest map, Edgar, which I bumped to the top.
@Endymion,
Why doesn't England do it's part and accept a few of these storms, endy? Spread it around like good allies ought.
HAVANA " Gustav howled into Cuba's Isla de Juventud as a monstrous Category 4 hurricane on Saturday while both Cubans and Americans scrambled to flee the path of the fast-growing storm.
Forecasters said it could weaken a little ahead of a likely collision on Monday with the U.S. coast.
David Paulison, who heads the Federal Emergency Management Agency, told reporters several times at a briefing that the storm was strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane " a category that means winds greater than 155 mph and a storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal.
FEMA officials said Bill Read, the director of the National Hurricane Center, interrupted an afternoon teleconference involving FEMA, Gulf Coast states and the National Weather Service to say he was going to issue a special advisory statement raising Gustav to Category 5.
More than 240,000 Cubans were being evacuated " some hurriedly " as the storm bore down on the nation's tobacco-rich western tip. Across the Gulf of Mexico, Americans made wary by Hurricane Katrina streamed out of New Orleans and other coastal cities.
Gustav already has killed 81 people by triggering floods and landslides in other Caribbean nations.
Lights flickered in Cuba's capital as shrieking winds blasted sheets of rain sideways though the streets and whipped angry waves against the famed seaside Malecon boulevard. State television stations went dark several times.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Gustav had sustained winds of 145 mph " with higher gusts " as the heart of the storm began hitting Cuba's outlying island province of Isla de Juventud, where officials cut power to many areas.
"The rain is not so intense, but there is a lot, a lot of wind," said Isabel Alarcon from Nueva Gerona, the largest city on the island of 87,000 people. "The officials, they have told us the wind will be bad first but then the rain could cause flooding into the night."
The government's AIN news agency said officials were evacuating some 190,000 people from low-lying parts of westernmost Cuba, Pinar del Rio province, where the tobacco for Cuba's famed cigars is grown. AIN reported that 50,000 already had been evacuated farther east.
Cuba halted all buses and trains to and from Havana where some shuttered stores had hand-scrawled "closed for evacuation" signs plastered to their doors. At those still open, residents formed lines to stock up on bread. Authorities boarded up banks, restaurants and hotels and cars waiting to fill their tanks stretched from gas stations.
"It's very big and we've got to get ready for what's coming," said Jesus Hernandez, a 60-year-old retiree who was using an electric drill to reinforce the roof of his rickety front porch.
By Saturday afternoon, Gustav was about 110 miles south of Havana and it was moving northwest near 14 mph.
Hurricane force winds extended out 70 miles in some places.
The U.S. naval base at Guantanamo, Cuba, was hundreds of miles to the east, out of the storm's path.
@edgarblythe,
we've had a few weird tornadoes recently but only ever get the arse end of hurricanes - i'm quite high up and have lost a favourite tree to gales - but that's about it
Now rain on the other hand...
@edgarblythe,
I'm not that up on what makes a hurricane kick but i found this National Geographic site very good (for non hurricane types)
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/08/080828-gustav.html
@squinney,
squinney wrote:
Interesting that the prediction is for Gustav to build in 12 hours from a 4 to a 5, drop in 12 hours back to a 4 and stay at that for a while but then suddenly... a 1?
I'm hoping for the sheer on Hanna to continue, though I don't know if they are still talking about that being a leveler for her.
They all finish at CAT-1. They are fueled by warm water; so once they hit land there is no fuel to sustain the full fury. Do hope those predictions are wrong; because if they are correct; we are looking at the finger of God. N.O. does not want the eye to pass just west of them either, since that would bring the full power of the storm surge right at them. Such a storm could easily bring a storm surge that far exceeds the 15 to 30 of Katrina. Those of you who are religious should start praying now.
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
Squinney: Hurricanes gain strength when they are over warm open water and lose strength pretty quickly when they go over land. Cuba will weaken it a bit but it then would regain that when it gets back into the gulf. Once it hits the US mainland it should slack off. I think the categories (3, 4, 5, or 1) relate mostly to wind, rather than amount of rainfall.
Thanks for posting the latest map, Edgar, which I bumped to the top.
Correct RJB. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is all about wind speed. The 18 foot storm surge associated with a CAT-5 should be considered as a
minimum side effect of sustained winds greater than 155 mph.
For quick reference:
Category One Hurricane: Winds 74-95 mph
Category Two Hurricane: Winds 96-110 mph
Category Three Hurricane: Winds 111-130 mph
Category Four Hurricane: Winds 131-155 mph
Category Five Hurricane: Winds greater than 155 mph
Realistically; any storm that makes landfall at CAT-3 or better has the potential to bring an incredibly deadly storm surge. Being East or North of the eye puts you in path of the surge (which is by far the deadliest part). Islanders who aren't moved off the Island 3-5 hours before the storm will likely not be getting off because that's when the surge comes in. People don't realize how lucky N.O. was with Katrina: Had that storm maintained it's CAT-5 intensity and/or hit just West of where it did: they would have been praying for the levees to break... just to let some water out. This could be that storm.
Nagin called it a hurricane of the century!?! What was Katrina, then?
@littlek,
Nobody has taken Nagin seriously for years....
@littlek,
Hard to take it seriously (hurricane of the century title). The century just got started.
I'm pulling some quotes from a NOLA-based forum that I participate in regularly. Most of my friends there have left. A few first-responders are staying closeby. The expectation is that the flooding on the west end will be worse than Katrina.
Quote:Governor Bobby Jindal said the National Weather Service is fairly confident that Hurricane Gustav will strike along the Louisiana coastline and could be “as bad as it gets.”
Jindal said that the Hurricane Center predicts that there could be tidal surges of 15 to 20 feet could be expected and that flooding could be ‘worse than Katrina,’ though Jindal said it could not be pinpointed where the flooding would occur.
Jindal also said that since Gustav is coming on an angle toward the city, that a move to the right could delay its strike time by as much as six hours, while a move to the left could delay it by 12 hours.
The State has mobilized 7,000 National Guardsmen and has an additional 700 support personnel coming in.
Jindal issued an executive order closing schools in 30 districts on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Quote:Saturday August 30, 2008, 7:38 PM
Mayor Ray Nagin late Saturday warned that Gustav is the "mother of all storms" and ordered a mandatory evacuation for the West Bank of New Orleans for 8 a.m. Sunday and noon for the East Bank.
"We want 100 percent evacuation," said Nagin. "I has the potential to impact every area of this metropolitan.
Katrina had a footprint of about 400 miles, he said. Gustav is about 900 miles and growing, Nagin said.
"This is worse than a Betsy, worse than a Katrina," Nagin said.
The mayor speculated that Gustav is so fierce Baton Rouge likely will experience 100 mph winds.
"You need to be scared and you need to get your butts out of New Orleans right now," Nagin said.
Nagin said he expects Gustav to "punch holes in the Harvey Canal," which will cause the West Bank to become a bath tub.
The West Bank has 8-foot-high to 10-foot-high protection, he said. Gustav's storm surge may be 15-, to 18- to 24-feet high.
