ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 07:34 pm
@mismi,
Yikes! those new projections aren't good. The thing's leaning a bit right again.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 07:43 pm
@mismi,
Oh no!!!

Sorry, mis -- Hugs!
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 08:27 pm
A Republican National Convention spokeswoman left open the possibility today that the Minnesota gathering set to nominate U.S. Sen. John McCain could be delayed if Gustav hits the Gulf Coast with hurricane force.

"Sen. McCain has always been sensitive to national crisis. In the 2000 race, he postponed his announcement because of the situation in the Balkans. We are monitoring the situation very closely," said convention spokeswoman Maury Donahue.

Political experts doubted a postponement would happen, however, pointing out the difficulty of rescheduling the huge convention.

They said it's more likely McCain is hoping to draw a contrast with the widely criticized Bush administration response to Hurricane Katrina three years ago.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 11:04 am
From the NHC

Quote:
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100
UTC...WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB...GOES
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW
THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA
FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO
STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28
PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV
CROSSES CUBA...THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A
LITTLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO
THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND IS HEADED FOR
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH...WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND
STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW
LESS OF THAT RIDGING. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE
EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE
TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 03:59 pm
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif
JPB
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 04:12 pm
@edgarblythe,
A few of the tracking models now show it headed more your way, edgar.
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 04:38 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

A few of the tracking models now show it headed more your way, edgar.
I sure hope not. I'm thinking Edgar is relatively safe, what, 20 mile inland Edgar? But Galveston could see their 3rd utter disaster this century. (Why do people insist on living in below sea level bowls, surrounded by water?)
edgarblythe
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 05:12 pm
@JPB,
We have been in the cone from the beginning. I repeat that my gut feeling is, it will land east of here. On the other hand, I recall a storm that hit Corpus Christi, a long time ago. As I complacently took to my slumber, the storm sat just offshore at Galveston. When I woke up, it was square on top of us in CC. It was not powerful, but it dumped heavy downpours in the one spot for six straight weeks. Proof that one should never turn one's back on a storm.
Izzie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 05:41 pm
@edgarblythe,
We're thinking about you.... keep safe all. x
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 05:48 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
OCCOM BILL wrote:

JPB wrote:

A few of the tracking models now show it headed more your way, edgar.
I sure hope not. I'm thinking Edgar is relatively safe, what, 20 mile inland Edgar? But Galveston could see their 3rd utter disaster this century. (Why do people insist on living in below sea level bowls, surrounded by water?)



Why does government go along with that, to the tune of zillions?


Faith in the corps of engineers? No interest in how natural forces work?
JPB
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:06 pm
@ossobuco,
Excuse me?

Just what are you thinking the government should do?
OCCOM BILL
 
  0  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:09 pm
@ossobuco,
I don't know. Never did.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:23 pm
@JPB,
Let the delta be the river delta, for starters. Move much of the city, this has happened before in history. Move the lowland houses, as a community/ communities. Too late now, of course.. And while they're at it, open up the lowlands of the mississippi river. Oh, and take the crap out of the gulf.
ossobuco
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:25 pm
@ossobuco,
I posted on all this long ago, haven't changed my mind.
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:26 pm
@ossobuco,
I still agree with you on this subject as well
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:32 pm
@ehBeth,
Ideologically, that's awesome, and I agree.

Politically, economically, governmentally, let's be real...
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:32 pm
@Rockhead,
We Amuurrcans never do anything the damn right and easy way...

(sometimes that makes us great, too...)

Shocked

GWB excluded.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:34 pm
@ossobuco,
I am with osso/jo on this. The gov't should stop allowing development, or should severely restrict it, in areas that are prone to natuaral disasters. The Gulf coast, the Atlantic coast up through VA, the heavily forested and steep slopes of the west coast. There should be no federally financed or guaranteed insurance for folks who choose to build in those areas. But I will leave it to osso, for the moment, to make the argument.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:35 pm
@ossobuco,
ossobuco wrote:

Let the delta be the river delta, for starters. Move much of the city, this has happened before in history. Move the lowland houses, as a community/ communities. Too late now, of course.. And while they're at it, open up the lowlands of the mississippi river. Oh, and take the crap out of the gulf.


The delta can't be the delta because it's gone -- thanks to much of the great planning of the Army Corps. We can try to RECLAIM the delta as a natural barrier to incoming storms as it was for hundreds, if not thousands, of years but the delta can't reclaim itself at this point. Let me know if you want links on folks who are actively working towards that end.

MOVE MUCH OF THE CITY?!?!

Ok, you hit it right on with "too late now".

What, EXACTLY, do you think can be done for generations of poor people living in the delta who have the government to thank for there current condition?
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2008 06:40 pm
@JPB,
What do you suggest? A trillion dollar North American equivalent to the North Sea Wall (that would still maybe defend a small portion of our coastline)? The Dutch don't have much choice; we do. We've got lots of room.
 

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