The 2008 Democrat Convention

That's my biggest gripe so far, with every network - they all have talked over about 90% of the speeches.

I just want to grab them by the neck, and say 'shut the f*ck up!' Nobody gives a damn about their shitty analysis, they could have stayed in the studio and done the same thing...

My guess is that we hear a lot more speeches next week; that's how the media tends to go...

Cycloptichorn

CSPAN never does that. That's my default channel for big events... I just hadn't changed it since before it began.

I know, but unfortunately most won't watch on Cspan but on the networks...

Cycloptichorn

By the way, that bounce? The one that they said wouldn't be there at all?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx



It's here, baby. And it's going to get bigger too.

Cycloptichorn

Cycl - you obviously haven't heard about that new-fangled contraption called radio?! That's what we did with CNN at my home yesterday.

It isn't that there aren't other ways to see it - I know I could always watch it on CSpan - but I like to see what normal viewers would see, to get an idea of what the impact is.

Cycloptichorn

That's a sig line waiting to happen.

Rasmussen reports a huge one point bounce, cyclops.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

I expect to see another 2 or 3 points, maybe 5, but as soon as the RNC does its thing, I think it could settle back to a statistical dead heat.

Rasmussen uses party ID balancing - that is to say, they poll the same number of Republicans as Dems, no matter how many people in their sample self-identify differently. So any bounce that could happen is going to be muted in their poll - and it will be the same for the Republicans next week.

Gallup allows you to self-identify and doesn't weight, so when they call 1000 people, if many more of them pick 'dem,' the numbers go up.

You can argue which is more accurate, but I think I'll go with the one that doesn't artificially limit the amount of people who can respond to a situation designed to sway voters to their side, thanks.

Cycloptichorn

Understood. I want to qualify my prediction by saying it all rides on the spectacle or the event tonight, just how well it comes off as scripted. Doing this in the stadium carries with it some risks. It could be a big hit, or it could be a disappointment. You better hope you get a big bounce, because if you don't, I think it means trouble for the Obama campaign.

This isn't "bluster," it is a logical prediction.

Unless he has changed his system, Rasmussen does NOT poll an equal number of Democrats and Republicans. He polls using the ratio of registered Democrats and registered Republicans and registered Independents. Therefore, his polls do poll more Democrats than Republicans or Independnets because there are more Democrats, etc.

Yes, but his ratios don't change, no matter how many self-identify. After a convention event, you can expect more independents to self-identify with the other side - and he is therefore limiting the ability for that to show.

Wait till next week, it won't move much the Republican way either lol.

Cycloptichorn

Well yes, Obama does need to do a good job, lol. I think it's equally important to point out that McCain needs the same thing, and he is far worse at giving this sort of set-speech then Obama is. The stakes are high on both sides.

It isn't as if Obama hasn't given speeches in stadiums before - he's even given them in front of a bigger crowd then this one, by a factor of two! And the audience there will be as pro-dem as you can get. I think that you are correct, Obama needs to step up to the plate, but he'll have a lot of help from the crowd, who will love him no matter what he says tonight.

Cycloptichorn

2 will get you 5, he hits it out of the park.

No bet!

Cycloptichorn

"Dems nervous over Invesco risks"

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12918.html

Are you biting your nails, cyclops?

Not one bit. I'm actually happy to see that there are lowered expectations - I was worried that there would be such high hopes printed in the media that he couldn't possibly live up to them.

Cycloptichorn

Obama's campaign is all about lowered expectations.

Did anybody else get choked up when Hillary suspended the roll call, and declared Obama the winner?