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Gallup Daily: Race Tied

 
 
H2O MAN
 
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 05:58 pm
Gallup Daily: Race Tied as Democratic Convention Starts

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080825DailyUpdateGraph1_ghytfvc.gif

Bumping is allowed in this race just as it is in NASCAR Twisted Evil
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 2,829 • Replies: 58

 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 06:49 pm
@H2O MAN,
BM.

(This is another thread that could be real fun in the future).
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 09:48 pm
Quote:


The unlikeliest political comeback in history
IAIN MacWHIRTER

It seems incredible, but as the Democrats gather in Denver to anoint Barack Obama, America could be on course to re-elect a Republican as their President. Not just any Republican either, but a belligerent 71-year-old who can't remember how many houses he owns, would happily nuke Iran and whose answer to global warming is to drill for oil in environmentally sensitive areas off the coast of America which don't even have much oil. But according to the polls, John McCain is drawing level with Barack Obama, and even pulling ahead.

Really, America is a strange, strange country. After a disastrous and illegal war, in which 4000 American soldiers have died, in the middle of an economic crisis largely caused by the investment houses that finance the Republican party, you would have thought it almost inconceivable that the Republicans could be re-elected. Could any political brand be more toxic? Has any party in history deserved to be thrown out at an election more than the Republicans in 2008?

George W Bush has been recognised even by many neo-conservatives as the worst US President in modern history. Ten million people risk losing their homes over the next two years as a result of the credit crunch. Real wages have been declining in America for the past five years. The country is awash with credit card debt.

...

http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/featuresopinon/display.var.2432465.0.The_unlikeliest_political_comeback_in_history.php

Ramafuchs
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 04:47 am
@JTT,
If this week's convention fails to achieve the widely predicted take-off in Mr Obama's ratings, does this mean that the presidential election is all but over before it started and that the world must prepare for another four years of Republican rule? The answer is an emphatic “no”.
It is too early to write off the Democrats, despite the poor start to their campaigning, because as polling day approaches, voters will realise that this election is not about the Democrats or Mr Obama or his relationship with the Clintons. It is about the Republicans and John McCain and his relationship with George Bush.

The maxim that “oppositions do not win elections; governments lose them” is not just a journalistic cliché. It is a profound statement about democracy. Since nobody can predict the future, it is impossible for voters to base their judgments on whether a future government will be successful or an untested candidate will make a good president.

Manifestos are rarely worth the paper they are written on. This is not just because politicians are dishonest but because unexpected events intervene. Dealing with the unexpected is a much more important function of government than implementing manifestos. Some politicians who seem well prepared and have clear policy objectives, such as Gordon Brown or Richard Nixon, turn out to be hopeless leaders, while others with little experience and few policy positions, such as Ronald Reagan or Tony Blair, end up being successful. Democracy is largely a gamble about who might govern best; and the right to vote is little more than a right to roll the dice.
politicians must always live in fear of punishment by the voters. But if voters repeatedly fail to punish incompetence or corruption or gross misjudgment, then the fear of defeat is lifted and democracy loses its disciplining power. And a country in which the dominant parties can afford to scoff at the discipline of the ballot box, is the point when democracy starts to slide into self-perpetuating oligarchy.

If the Republicans can get their candidate re-elected to the White House after all their failures of the past eight years - after the military misadventures, the geopolitical blunders, the economic mishaps and the mismanagement of natural disasters - America will be perilously close to the point when democracy ceases to perform its most essential function of disciplining political power

It is only by ejecting the Republicans from the White House that American voters can send the message that they are still in charge of their country and that gross government incompetence will not go unpunished. Accountability - not personality or rhetoric or colour or age or gender - should be the overriding issue in this election. The Democrats - with their naively high-minded focus on Mr Obama's alleged achievements instead of the Bush Administration's manifest blunders - do not yet seem to have understood this. But with luck, American voters will prove less naive than the Democratic high command.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article4621979.ece
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  3  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 11:38 am
@H2O MAN,
Here's today's tracking poll:

Obama moves ahead

I guess it's a convention bounce. Maybe McCain will get one too. Anybody remember the last time he broke 45%?
sozobe
 
  3  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 11:48 am
@FreeDuck,
There we go.

Toldja. (Not you, FreeDuck, but there were a few "hey, there's no bounce!" --> "just wait, these things take a while" discussions recently.)
CoastalRat
 
  4  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 12:05 pm
Yep, there is nearly always a convention bounce. Obama will get his now. McCain's will be next week. Then they will probably settle in right around where it stood on Monday of this week. Nothing unusual in this.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 12:08 pm
@CoastalRat,
We'll see how much of a convention bounce McCain gets - there's a heck of a lot less excitement and drama, and the hurricane could take a bunch of coverage away, as well as provide an unappealing metaphor for the media to latch on to, not to mention the Dems.

It's been a long time since they were so back-to-back - if Obama's bounce continues to go up (which it ought to for at least one day, as old polling data drops out of the averages), the best McCain will be able to achieve is to restore parity.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 12:13 pm
@CoastalRat,
I agree that McCain will get a bounce too... it's not so much that there's anything unusual about that (it's not particularly unusual, that's why I predicted this bounce), but that people were saying that since there hadn't been a bounce YET (Tuesday, Wednesday), that meant no bounce. I explained about expected delays and was met with some skepticism. ;-)
0 Replies
 
CoastalRat
 
  3  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 12:20 pm
And that is exactly my point Cy. It will be back to about even once both conventions are history.

And I agree Soz, that those who somehow thought Obama was not getting a bounce just because the numbers did not change much after Monday were jumping the gun. Ya gotta give the coffee time to percolate, my granny used to say. Or was that my cousin's nephew on my brother's uncle's sister's father's side? I always get them confused.
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 12:22 pm
@CoastalRat,
Percolate! That's what I said, too!
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 12:27 pm
@sozobe,
... and he hasn't even spoken yet. I have a hunch he'll get another point or two after tonight. We'll see where he lands after things settle.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:21 pm
As of today:
Obama is either 1 point ahead of McCain or dead even with McCain depending on what poll you look at.

If Obama was anything like the hype that surrounds him he should be 15 or 20 points ahead of McCain.
I think Obama has peaked!
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:23 pm
@H2O MAN,
Which two polls are you looking at? Troll.

Cycloptichorn
old europe
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:23 pm
@H2O MAN,
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080828DailyUpdateGraph1_thnbvrw.gif
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:27 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
You are so predictable Cyclotroll Laughing

I look at the real poll data not the liberal straw man talking points that you focus on.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:27 pm
@H2O MAN,
Okay, answer the question then: which polls are you looking at, troll?

I bet you cannot do so.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  4  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:28 pm
@H2O MAN,
Yeah, but you're not looking at the Gallup poll... which is funny, considering the title of this thread...
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:29 pm
@old europe,
Yes, I love that. "I never pay attention to Gallup... unless it says what I want, anyway..."
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2008 01:30 pm
@old europe,
Cyclo, I knew you were posting liberal straw man talking points. Troll.
 

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