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The Effect of $20 Gas

 
 
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 08:17 am
I saw on TV this morning, a prediction of $20 a gallon gas by year's end. This conjured in my mind a scenario similar to the days of the Great Depression. People living in makeshift camps; living in autos, but not driving them; the sweatshop items we now buy so cheap costing an arm and a leg, with no option of producing them here, now that it's moved out of country; government moving to protect big business from failure, at the expense of the working public; crumbling infrastructure excelerated - On and on. Am I being overly pessimistic?
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 2,251 • Replies: 42
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DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 09:06 am
$20/gallon gas would certainly have a horrible effect on the economy and on people's lives.

I have a hard time believing in $20/gallon gas, though. Did they have any evidence to back up the statement?
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 09:15 am
It was one of those quick little stories on the local news. I didn't retain much actual information.
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Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 09:24 am
Purely my own opinions...

I can't see $20, but $7 is realistic, and just as frightening to those of us on the brink of survival.

The effects of $4 gas can already be seen both on the farm, and in my segment of the automotive market, and they are very unsettling.
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mismi
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 10:25 am
I was talking to someone this morning that said that back in the last oil crisis during the Carter administration that he predicted it would go to $4.00 a gallon in 6 months...30 years later it is just getting there. But I am with Rockhead...$7.00 seems more reasonable...but even that will change my world traumatically..dramatically that is.
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gustavratzenhofer
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 10:53 am
The price of gas is slowly and insidiously ripping the flesh from my body and stealing the bounce from my step.
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Chai
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 10:58 am
If gas was $20 a gallon, it would not be worth it for a lot of people to even have a job.

If you had to spend $40 a day to go to work and get home when you were stretching it to pay $6 or $8, you wouldn't be able to feed or shelter yourself.
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ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 11:04 am
Simple economics.

The less gas you use... the lower the price will be. The higher the price is the less gas you will use.

The price will end up where it should be.

Until we are all driving smaller cars, carpooling and driving less... we have no right to complain. $4 a gallon gas is not the problem. The pain you are feeling is because the price was too low, and now we all have to adjust to reasonably priced gas.

We will know the price is right when we are all acting responsibly.
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ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 11:06 am
For the record, I think we will shape up long before we hit $20/gallon. Long before this point, we will realize that even in small cars, we can cut the cost by a factor of 4 simply by filling the seats we have.
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dagmaraka
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 11:08 am
i just hope it will result in the development of better public transportation systems.
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raprap
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 11:10 am
Not to shortchange Reagan, but if he had paid a little attention to the Carter energy recommendations (CAFE, alternate energy projects, safe nuclear power) the Us would be standing in the position that Brazil now finds itself. The problem was that Reagan listened to the Oil Companied and the Arabs when they lifted the restriction on the (then) artificial oil crisis and sold crude for $20 a bbl.

Now that the crisis is not so artificial, the oil companies are pushing recovery in hostile clines in the hopes of perpetuating the energy policy mistakes of Reagan, when what is really needed is the reinstitution of the programs of Carter.

Mow I'll agree that in general that Carter wasn't much of an executive. But I attribute this to his education more than politics. Carter was (like Hoover) an engineer and as an engineer he wanted to rationally understand the consequence of policy and to actively manage that policy implementation. Reagan wasn't particularly interested in either of these facets using emotionalism for the former and subordinates for the latter and being lucky we were able to ignore the consequence for the past three decades. But the slack is gone, and the piper is demanding his due---so $7 a gallon is believable.

The good news---the higher the gas price the more economically feasible its replacement becomes---it's gonna hurt as the suburbs shrink, and the car addiction withdrawal monkey grows, but in another three decades the alternates will be implemented. However, even if Jimmy isn't smugly mouthing "I told you so" we should remember the missed opportunity of the late seventies, just so we won't make the same mistake again.

Rap
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 11:14 am
dagmaraka wrote:
i just hope it will result in the development of better public transportation systems.


Amen!
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 11:49 am
Public transportation in Houston is slowly expanding. They put the new train system right on the street and now have constant wrecks with cars and sometimes hit pedestrians. I love trains, but, wish they could design the new systems better.

For several years now, when I have reason to go to Houston, I have taken the Park and Ride, meaning I park on their lot and take the bus in. This works wonderfully.

The problem with car pooling is, they have got us living in such a car oriented society, most of us don't know anybody to pool with. Who goes our way, both directions? That's fine for many, but not practical for all. Move closer to the job? At nearly 66, with my home nearly paid off, at a rate of $400 month, I should rent an apartment for about $700 month? Where is the savings?
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 12:12 pm
In our area, we have trains that run into Philly on an hourly basis. Ridership has increasd 50% in the fist half of 2008. Trains are the most economical way to haul folks for medium distances.

The building boom in the ALncaster subburbs and rural areas has come to an abrupt halt. There is now a multitude of "infill" projects in which traditional neighborhood projects are being planned for areas close to center Lancaster.

Also, the demand for "local produce" is taking off. We,Americans can quickly reinvent ourselves based upon new market and economic realities
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 12:18 pm
edgarblythe wrote:
The problem with car pooling is, they have got us living in such a car oriented society, most of us don't know anybody to pool with. Who goes our way, both directions? That's fine for many, but not practical for all.


Well, a solution to this problem is making way in Europe.

There's websites were you can go and post your location, place of work, schedule.

Then the software automatically selects all those you can carpool with.

Pretty good success here!
0 Replies
 
Chai
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 12:24 pm
ebrown_p wrote:
Simple economics.

The less gas you use... the lower the price will be. The higher the price is the less gas you will use.

The price will end up where it should be.

Until we are all driving smaller cars, carpooling and driving less... we have no right to complain. $4 a gallon gas is not the problem. The pain you are feeling is because the price was too low, and now we all have to adjust to reasonably priced gas.

We will know the price is right when we are all acting responsibly.


I agree ebrown.

I have a habit of talking to the radio when listening to NPR. Listening to THIS STORY I actually became speechless, and could only sputter and laugh.

It's really worth a listening to, if only to hear the tone of self-righteousness in this guys voice. He and the woman he lives with own a Ford Excursion AND a Ford Expedition. On good days, they get 8 to 10 miles per gallon.

The interviewer feeds right into this mans feeling of entitlement by saying (with this emphasis) that between him and the woman they have FIVE children between them.

Well all righty then, I guess taking into account that 2 people have the astronomical total of 5 children between totally justifies each having vehicles the size of a Manhattan apartment.

Apparently no one makes a move without the other 6 coming along for the ride. At one point the man says to the interviewer that he would need 3 vehicles the size of the interviewers just to get all his kids to the grocery store......give me a break.

The poor man has tried to sell his, but could only get 11,500 at the most because no one wants these tanks anymore. I assume the womans would sell for an equal amount.

Let's do the math people. My Toyota Corolla gets 35 mpg and seats 4. Two new ones would cost around 30 to 34K. Sell the 2 SUV for $23K, buy 2 corollas and you only owe $11K more. You could pay off that note in a couple of years with the gas savings.

Here's someone that had totally bought into the myth that he's going to be driving an entire soccer team and their equipment around 7 days a week.

Whatever happened to the kid loading his crap onto his bike and getting there himself?

ok, maybe saying 2 corollas is a little extreme. Don't they sell station wagons anymore? Since when do you have to drive to the Target or supermarket while sitting on a couch? You're in the car for a half hour, deal with the lack of vibrating seats.
0 Replies
 
Chai
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 12:27 pm
Francis wrote:
edgarblythe wrote:
The problem with car pooling is, they have got us living in such a car oriented society, most of us don't know anybody to pool with. Who goes our way, both directions? That's fine for many, but not practical for all.


Well, a solution to this problem is making way in Europe.

There's websites were you can go and post your location, place of work, schedule.

Then the software automatically selects all those you can carpool with.

Pretty good success here!



Yeah, I really like that idea too.

Here's another NPR story....Slugging to Work, something that has been going on for decades apparantly.

I'd consider this seriously.

Edit....we don't have HOV lanes here, but, if the person getting in the car hands you a dollar, hell, a couple of riders would pay my gas for the day, or, it'd be worth traveling that way for 2 bucks a day.
0 Replies
 
Chai
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 12:34 pm
Here's the Slug Web Site for Washington DC



interesting.
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 02:22 pm
Changing from 12 to 14 MPG actually saves more gas than switching from 28 to 40 MPG.

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/law_librarian_blog/2008/06/big-savings-fro.html
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Jun, 2008 02:26 pm
There are no HOV lanes around here. We have a single lane, all the way in. Plus a train track to cross.

One other problem I would have with car pooling is, I cannot count on the same hours all the time. Without knowing in advance, we get called on to replace A/Cs or handle other emergency designated problems any time of day or night. A few weeks back, we had to replace the evaporator coil inside an apartment, beginning at ten minutes before quitting time and lastimg about three hours. All this stuff sounds easy and great, but there are millions af drivers and not all of us have so many options.
0 Replies
 
 

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