Are we seeing a chicken coming home to roost here?
Social Security to See Payout Exceed Pay-In This Year
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/25/business/economy/25social.html?hp
Quote:The problem, he [Stephen C. Goss, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration] said, is that payments have risen more than expected during the downturn, because jobs disappeared and people applied for benefits sooner than they had planned. At the same time, the program’s revenue has fallen sharply, because there are fewer paychecks to tax.
But both Goss and the NYT article are hopeful:
Quote:The trustees did foresee, in late 2008, that the recession would be severe enough to deplete Social Security’s funds more quickly than previously projected. They moved the year of reckoning forward, to 2037 from 2041. Mr. Goss declined to reveal the contents of the forthcoming annual report, but said people should not expect the date to lurch forward again.
As is the CBO:
Quote: Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office’s projection shows the ravages of the recession easing in the next few years, with small surpluses reappearing briefly in 2014 and 2015
No worries then. Indeed, the article informs us that Alan Greenspan says we don’t have to do anything “…until the level of the trust fund gets to zero,” Oh, but what remedies will present themselves at that point? In relation to a similar historical problem in 1982 Mr. Greenspan relates those remedies:
Quote:“raise taxes, lower benefits or bail out the program by tapping general revenue. The easiest choice, politically, would have been “solving the problem with the stroke of a pen, by printing the money,”
Well the first three efforts certainly sound vaguely familiar but printing more money? Wouldn’t that be, at least, inflationary? But wait! Would "tapping general revenue" leave less for other budget items? How would we possibly replace that revenue? Well, you know--raise taxes, again.
But here’s the deal, we all should know by now that as good and as professional as the CBO is, its analysis is subject to the old computer processing adage “GIGO” or “Garbage In Garbage Out” and must keep in mind the new liberal congress’s input of garbage known as the congressional parameters for the scoring of Obamacare (Put simply, if congress told the CBO to score a bill that included winning the Irish Sweepstakes as revenue it would have to do so).
Also the article itself admits to the inherent accuracy of prediction:
Quote: Mr. Goss said Social Security’s annual report last year projected revenue would more than cover payouts until at least 2016 because economists expected a quicker, stronger recovery from the crisis. Officials foresaw an average unemployment rate of 8.2 percent in 2009 and 8.8 percent this year, though unemployment is hovering at nearly 10 percent.
But, speaking of “fewer paychecks”, what this hopeful article fails to mention is that the Bush tax cuts expire next year. This plus the tax increases on businesses brought upon them by Obamacare in the future will discourage hiring. This will slow the economy which will, in turn, further discourage employment. Additionally, like the article mentions, those who can will choose to collect benefits earlier thus imposing a double whammy on the system. I just saw a news piece that informed that many large corporations like Verizon have served employees notice that their health insurance will have to rise in cost (forced by Obamacare) and that layoffs are in the near future for many large companies. Does any of this sound familiar? Further, Arthur Laffer (
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=35341 )has predicted a recession within this recession (a double dip to be seen in 2011). This is what happened in the thirties after FDR’s policies and a protectionist congress. The only question is whether those who now govern us are more willing to pursue their present agenda bringing us closer to a European like socialist society or to further the original founders’ dreams of a country cherishing personal liberty and economic freedoms. It does seem clear, however, that the only question to be answered is exactly how much damage will our government inflict upon its own future legitimacy (both domestic and foreign) and American personal freedoms before the hope and change of November 2010. The domestic condition has a chance of improving in direct proportion to increased conservative (and not GOP) congressional control. I must say I think Sec. Clinton would have been better with a more mature administration but she did chose this portfolio with her eyes wide open. I am afraid foreign policy will have to wait until 2013 before any adults are allowed to so participate at a level that might allow good and reasoned real world foreign policy decisions.
JM