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AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Feb, 2010 09:02 am
@realjohnboy,
yes, expenditures in billions.

We could eliminate most of the Federal government and we would still have a deficit this year.

cuts have to be made AND revenues have to be raised.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Feb, 2010 10:47 am
@okie,
Quote:
Again your ignorance shows. Tax revenues are not directly proportional to tax rates, because tax rates affect the economy. This is elementary, so you need to brush up on this , cyclops. It is similar to a retailer that makes a decision about raising his prices, he cannot assume that he will sell the same number of units at a higher price, that is utterly ridiculous, but that is exactly what liberals like yourself do here all the time. Surely you must know that Sam Walton built the Walmart empire by not raising prices to increase gross sales, but he instead reduced prices to the bare bone and made a fortune by selling much higher quanitities. The same principle applies to tax rates to some extent, not entirely, but part of that principle is always part of the equation. We have argued the Laffer Curve numerous times, but you still have not caught on to the principle of it.

And to repeat, JFK and Reagan both increased tax revenues by lowering tax rates. This is history.


You are incorrect about your 'history' and your understanding of the economy and how it works. Cutting taxes NEVER leads to a rise in revenue, ever. It only depresses the levels of revenue collected, which then begin to rise from the previous point.

Here's Paul Krugman using actual facts and numbers to prove you wrong:

Quote:
January 17, 2008, 7:03 pm
Reagan and revenue

Ah - commenter Tom says, in response to my post on taxes and revenues:
Quote:

Taxes were cut at the beginning of the Reagan administration.

Federal tax receipts increased by 50% by the end of the Reagan Administration.

Although correlation does not prove causation the tax cut must have accounted for some portion of this increase in federal tax receipts.


I couldn’t have asked for a better example of why it’s important to correct for inflation and population growth, both of which tend to make revenues grow regardless of tax policy.

Actually, federal revenues rose 80 percent in dollar terms from 1980 to 1988. And numbers like that (sometimes they play with the dates) are thrown around by Reagan hagiographers all the time.

But real revenues per capita grew only 19 percent over the same period " better than the likely Bush performance, but still nothing exciting. In fact, it’s less than revenue growth in the period 1972-1980 (24 percent) and much less than the amazing 41 percent gain from 1992 to 2000.

Is it really possible that all the triumphant declarations that the Reagan tax cuts led to a revenue boom " declarations that you see in highly respectable places " are based on nothing but a failure to make the most elementary corrections for inflation and population growth? Yes, it is. I know we’re supposed to pretend that we’re having a serious discussion in this country; but the truth is that we aren’t.

Update: For the econowonks out there: business cycles are an issue here " revenue growth from trough to peak will look better than the reverse. Unfortunately, business cycles don’t correspond to administrations. But looking at revenue changes peak to peak is still revealing. So here’s the annual rate of growth of real revenue per capita over some cycles:

1973-1979: 2.7%
1979-1990: 1.8%
1990-2000: 3.2%
2000-2007 (probable peak): approximately zero

Do you see the revenue booms from the Reagan and Bush tax cuts? Me neither.


You are simply incorrect. There was no boom in revenue due to Reagan's tax cuts. In fact, Clinton's revenue boom by RAISING taxes dwarfed the rise during Reagan's term.

Tax rates do NOT affect the economy to the extent you think they do. Making small changes in tax rates does not provide for a gigantic boom in revenues. We can do some math experiments if you need proof of this.

Quote:

Perhaps not, for sure not in the case of all of them. But the Department of Education is one big one, it should go to local people, the people that care about their children, its time for the locals to pick up the slack, and besides, alot of waste occurs in Washington, and that can be eliminated by shortening the route of how the money finds its way into the schools. The cost of education is out of control, and it needs fixing.


This doesn't save you money - you will just be paying State taxes instead of Federal taxes. I also wonder how you plan on eliminating the 'waste' in education spending - do you really know any details about what you are talking about?

Quote:

No, not the reason. I am for it because the IRS is a total disaster, and with the retail sales tax, we suddenly collect tax from illegals, drug dealers, and other criminals that operate under the radar. Rich people still would pay alot more tax. We can also exempt food, and also housing under a certain threshold. It would be simpler and we already have the infrastructure to collect the tax, as almost every state operates by collecting retail sales tax already. By taxing purchases instead of productivity, we place foreign goods on the same playing field with domestic, plus it places alot more money into peoples pockets to begin with. By eliminating taxes on businesses and productivity, not only our economy booms, but our exports would skyrocket, thus providing more jobs and growing the economy, it would be a domino effect in a postivie way.


Sales taxes are inherently regressive. There would have to be quite a bit of progressive indexing in order to make this a good idea. I would also have to see some proof of concept, in which it was shown that the amount of real revenues garnered went UP, not SHRANK, because we will not be able to address our problems with less revenue.

Quote:
That is the only way to get out of debt. You will not do it with a shrinking economy. No sane person solves his household budget by spending more and working less. You have to combine more work with less spending, this is simple common sense, which I guess Democrats do not have?


Raising taxes does not shrink the economy. There's no evidence that this is true at all. Under Clinton's term, taxes went up and the economy didn't shrink in the slightest. How do you account for this in your theories?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Tue 2 Feb, 2010 11:34 am
IT IS OBUMA’S $3.8 TRILLION BUDGET FOR FISCAL 2011
………………………………………………………………………………………..
IT WAS BUSHY’S $0.4 TRILLION DEFICIT FOR FISCAL 2008
IT WAS OBUMA’S $1.4 TRILLION DEFICIT FOR FISCAL 2009
IT WILL BE OBUMA’S $1.6 TRILLION DEFICIT FOR FISCAL 2010
IT WILL BE OBUMA’S $0.7 TRILLION DEFICIT FOR FISCAL 2013

All this theft of USA resources by Obuma, Obuma will not cut as it should be. No! Obuma is going to fund it by theft of the income of the wealthy, when it is the wealthy who are funding existing jobs and would fund additional jobs, if Obuma is not allowed to steal their future means to do that.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Feb, 2010 08:48 pm
Good historical information about tax rates and tax revenues can be found here, and the evidence shows that lower tax rates can and do produce higher revenues in certain situations and times. It all depends I believe on where we might be on the Laffer Curve. What I mean by that is that there is an optimum tax rate that balances good tax revenue with a healthy economy, because we need both to keep both the government and the economy healthy and funded. We need high enough tax rates to support the government, but once it gets too high as to impact the economy too much negatively, then the rates need rolling back, along with a comprehensive program to reduce government spending.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Taxes/images/bg1086c6.gif

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Taxes/images/bg1086c6.gif
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Taxes/images/bg1086c10.gif
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Taxes/images/bg1086c12.gif
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Feb, 2010 09:04 pm
@okie,
A quote from the above link:

"The effect of tax rates on economic activity should not be overstated. The economy, after all, can be affected significantly by trade policy, regulatory policy, monetary policy, and many other government actions. Even within the context of fiscal policy, tax rates are not the only critical issue. Both the level of government spending and where that money goes are very important. And even when looking only at tax policy, tax rates are just one piece of the puzzle. If certain types of income are subject to multiple layers of tax, as occurs in the current system, that problem cannot be solved by low rates. Similarly, a tax system with needless levels of complexity will impose heavy costs on the productive sector of the economy. "
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Reply Tue 2 Feb, 2010 10:25 pm
@okie,
Krugman was right..

There you go not adjusting for inflation or population. But don't let the fact that your argument was defeated before you make it from making it again and again.
0 Replies
 
JamesMorrison
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 01:07 pm
A video illustrating the relavence of Obama's spending "freeze"

http://www.politicalmathblog.com/

JM
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 01:08 pm
I'm still waiting for an explanation from ANY conservative, as to how they will balance the budget and pay down the debt without raising taxes. I think the silence on this issue clearly shows that it is impossible to do this and ONLY a combination of budget cuts and tax increases will do so.

Those who decry deficits and debts that the US carries, yet oppose tax increases, are inherently unserious about the topic.

Cycloptichorn
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 01:47 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
I'm still waiting for an explanation from ANY conservative ...


You know, Cy, it's more than a little hypocritical of you to suggest that others should address issues when you sneak out, using a dubious tangent, from addressing issues that are, really, when you think about it, way way more important than these.

I'm quite certain that I haven't seen you do hypocrisy before. In fact, with you now facing some tough issues, you're doing a lot of things I haven't seen you do before.

You could be mulling it all over in your mind; again, getting one's head wrapped around these "smack ya in the puss" realities is hardly an easy thing. I guess, to be fair, given that the nature of these issues is so potentially demoralizing, you should be allowed more time.

But that raises another perplexing question, one that you needn't address; how is it possible that so much of the world has been so easily duped by the USA into thinking that they are the good guys? Is it just the movies? Is it the constant back patting? What is it?
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 02:25 pm
@JTT,
I've already told you that I am unwilling to continue this discussion with you, JTT; what more do you need to hear? I don't put people on ignore but I will not respond to further messages from you on this issue.

Perhaps you ought to examine your behavior and see if you can figure out why nobody wants to have these conversations with you - even those of us who are your putative allies in thought.

End of conversation; good day, sir

Cycloptichorn
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 02:56 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I know you've said that, Cy, but it is just so extremely hypocritical. You frequently chided Foxfyre [???] about her reluctance to face up to the issues and yet that's exactly what you've chosen to do here.

What's worse, you've employed all the tangents and obfuscations of a Gob1.

I can't recall seeing you up a stump like this before and unwilling to face the issues. It is disappointing to say the least.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 03:00 pm
The way for the feds to achieve a balanced budget is reduce federal outlays and reduce the maximum income tax rate.

Reagan's reduction of the maximum income tax rate from 70% to 33% contributed to fed receipts increasing more than $392 billion (increased almost 76%). However, Reagan's fed outlays increased more than $473 billion (increased more than 80%). Unfortunately, Reagan failed to also reduce fed spending in his attempt to balance the fed budget.
Quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051527/posts
Partial History of U.S. Federal Income Tax Rates
Highest and lowest Income Tax Rates 1971 to 1990
...
1971-1981: minimum = 14%; maximum = 70% [CARTER 1977-1981]
1982-1986: minimum = 11%; maximum = 50% [REAGAN 1981-1989]
1987-1987: minimum = 11%; maximum = 38.5%
1988-1990: minimum = 15%; maximum = 33%

Quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2008/pdf/hist.pdf
Year…….$Receipts……$Outlays…$ReceiptsMinusOutlays

1980….517,112,000….590,941,000…..- 73,830,000 [CARTER 1977-1981]
1981….599,272,000….678,241,,000…..- 78,968,000 [REAGAN 1981-1989]
1982….617,766,000….745,743,000….- 127,977,000
1983….600,562,000….808,364,000….- 207,802,000
1984….666,486,000….851,853,000….- 185,367,000
1985….734,068,000….946,396,000….- 212,308,000
1986….769,215,000….990,441,000….- 221,227,000
1987….854,353,000….1,004,083,000….- 149,730,000
1988….909,303,000….1,064,481,000….- 155,178,000

Reducing fed tax rates and outlays enables the private sector to spend and invest more, thereby causing there to be greater receipts at the lower tax rate to fund the lower outlays.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 03:04 pm
@ican711nm,
For the love of Christ, how often are you going to present non-inflation adjusted, non-population adjusted data Ican?!!?! After repeatedly being shown how invalid it is, you continue to do it.

Cycloptichorn
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 03:27 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
For the love of Christ, how often are you going to present non-inflation adjusted, non-population adjusted data Ican?!!?! After repeatedly being shown how invalid it is, you continue to do it.



Shocked Confused Shocked Confused
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 04:15 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

I'm still waiting for an explanation from ANY conservative, as to how they will balance the budget and pay down the debt without raising taxes. I think the silence on this issue clearly shows that it is impossible to do this and ONLY a combination of budget cuts and tax increases will do so.

Those who decry deficits and debts that the US carries, yet oppose tax increases, are inherently unserious about the topic.

Cycloptichorn


No less "unserious" than those who propose new taxes to further productive strangle economic activity, and, at the same time, adding new government expenditures at an even greater rate.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 04:17 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I'm still waiting for an explanation from ANY conservative, as to how they will balance the budget and pay down the debt without raising taxes. I think the silence on this issue clearly shows that it is impossible to do this and ONLY a combination of budget cuts and tax increases will do so.

Those who decry deficits and debts that the US carries, yet oppose tax increases, are inherently unserious about the topic.

Cycloptichorn


No less "unserious" than those who propose new taxes to further productive strangle economic activity, and, at the same time, adding new government expenditures at an even greater rate.


New taxes don't strangle productive economic activity. This is nothing more than a long-standing trope on your side.

BUT, you are perfectly correct that we cannot raise taxes and expect to balance the budget and pay down debts without cutting spending. Fortunately, this is exactly what I have proposed doing - raising taxes AND cutting spending.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 04:53 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
No less "unserious" than those who propose new taxes to further productive strangle economic activity, and, at the same time, adding new government expenditures at an even greater rate.


I wonder what it is about business people in Sweden or Denmark or Germany or Canada or ... who continue to engage in productive economic activity at tax rates that are higher than the USA.

I also wonder if there are any US companies who do business in countries outside of the USA where, one would guess, they would encounter rates of taxation different than those of the homeland.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 05:30 pm
Quote:

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=18926&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DPD
A NEW APPROACH TO HEALTH REFORM
The problem with Democratic health insurance bills is that they specify what coverage people must buy. But one size does not fit all well, says Diana Furchtgott-Roth, a contributing editor of Real Clear Markets and an Adjunct Fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has an idea to fix health reform. In his "Road Map for America's Future," reintroduced this month:

Americans would take refundable tax credits -- $2,300 for singles and $5,700 for families -- and choose private insurance.
All insurance plans that are licensed in a particular state would be eligible, and each company would be free to set its own premiums.
Low-income individuals would get extra tax credits so they could buy the same kind of health care as other Americans.
What about Medicare?

Medicare would remain the same for current beneficiaries and for those 55 and older when they reach 65.
But when those born in 1955 or later become eligible for Medicare at age 65, their plan would change.
They would receive $11,000, adjusted for inflation, to buy a Medicare certified plan.
Those with lower incomes or with more serious health conditions would receive more funding.
Further:

Health insurance companies could offer high-deductible plans carrying lower premiums combined with health savings accounts, or more traditional managed care or fee-for-service plans.
Persons with high-cost chronic illnesses, such as hemophilia or diabetes, would be placed in special affordable state high risk pools, with subventions paid by the government.
On Wednesday, Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf wrote to Ryan to tell him that this plan reduced health care costs and the federal deficit. He said: "Under the proposal, national health expenditures would almost certainly be lower than they would under the alternative fiscal scenario. Federal spending for health care would be substantially lower, relative to the amount in that scenario, for working-age people and the Medicare population."

Source: Diana Furchtgott-Roth, "A New Approach to Health Reform," Real Clear Markets, January 28, 2010.

For text:

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2010/01/28/a_new_approach_to_health_reform_97614.html

Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 05:32 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:


Americans would take refundable tax credits -- $2,300 for singles and $5,700 for families -- and choose private insurance.


For the Nth time, credits do nothing for people who can't afford the premiums in the first place. This is not a solution for those who can't afford health care right now at all. It also does nothing for those with pre-existing conditions at all.

Not a serious plan.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Feb, 2010 05:36 pm
Can anyone provide valid evidence to support the conclusion that taking inflation and population growth into account will will lead one to interpret the evidence provided in this argument differently than as follows:

The way for the feds to achieve a balanced budget is reduce federal outlays and reduce the maximum income tax rate.

Reagan's reduction of the maximum income tax rate from 70% to 33% contributed to fed receipts increasing more than $392 billion (increased almost 76%). However, Reagan's fed outlays increased more than $473 billion (increased more than 80%). Unfortunately, Reagan failed to also reduce fed spending in his attempt to balance the fed budget.
Quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051527/posts
Partial History of U.S. Federal Income Tax Rates
Highest and lowest Income Tax Rates 1971 to 1990
...
1971-1981: minimum = 14%; maximum = 70% [CARTER 1977-1981]
1982-1986: minimum = 11%; maximum = 50% [REAGAN 1981-1989]
1987-1987: minimum = 11%; maximum = 38.5%
1988-1990: minimum = 15%; maximum = 33%

Quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2008/pdf/hist.pdf
Year…….$Receipts……$Outlays…$ReceiptsMinusOutlays

1980….517,112,000….590,941,000…..- 73,830,000 [CARTER 1977-1981]
1981….599,272,000….678,241,,000…..- 78,968,000 [REAGAN 1981-1989]
1982….617,766,000….745,743,000….- 127,977,000
1983….600,562,000….808,364,000….- 207,802,000
1984….666,486,000….851,853,000….- 185,367,000
1985….734,068,000….946,396,000….- 212,308,000
1986….769,215,000….990,441,000….- 221,227,000
1987….854,353,000….1,004,083,000….- 149,730,000
1988….909,303,000….1,064,481,000….- 155,178,000

Reducing fed tax rates and outlays enables the private sector to spend and invest more, thereby causing there to be greater receipts at the lower tax rate to fund the lower outlays.
 

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