AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

I'm amenable to those metrics, with the exception of #1, which isn't going to happen; the authors of the study which predicted those numbers have admitted that it isn't going to happen and that they were wrong, based on Q4 data from last year being worse than they had predicted. I don't know what else you expect anyone to do on that metric. I am willing to say that partial successes in this area should be considered by you, to be fair.

By Lucia Mutikani Lucia Mutikani " 2 hrs 24 mins ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) " The number of U.S. workers submitting new claims for jobless benefits fell sharply last week, fanning hopes the fragile labor market was on the mend and that the broader economy was stabilizing.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance fell 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 550,000 in the week ended August 1, the Labor Department said on Thursday, beating market expectations for a drop to 580,000.

Can we consider some of the 38,000 a "savings" of jobs?

In a sign that the trend was firmly toward a moderation in the pace of layoffs, the four-week moving average for new claims fell 4,750 to 555,250 in the week ended August 1.

The four-week moving average is considered a better gauge of underlying trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility. The moving average has declined for six consecutive weeks.

cyclo wrote:

I'm amenable to those metrics, with the exception of #1, which isn't going to happen; the authors of the study which predicted those numbers have admitted that it isn't going to happen and that they were wrong, based on Q4 data from last year being worse than they had predicted. I don't know what else you expect anyone to do on that metric. I am willing to say that partial successes in this area should be considered by you, to be fair.

Well, I'm a bit surprised that for a guy that was taking me to task for judging the whole bill a failure too soon, you now concede that at least that tenet has failed. And since that was, according to Obama "the single most important part of the economic Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" I think I'm well justified in my opinion that you should start the game with one strike against.

However in the interest of the game, I'll change the metric to simply recovering the jobs he lost during the first six months of his administration (1.5M) during the second half of Feb 2010 (which reflects where his current economic advisers including Ms. Romer are now suggesting the stimulus plan should really, really show an impact...cross your heart and die!). Of course this only gets us to where Obama began and if the plan is really stimulating you should see actual gains from that point, not just a stop of the bleeding. Therefore throw in your metric of 150K jobs per month for 12 consecutive months from then until Feb 2011. Sound reasonable?

No good at all if that is the only thing happening. But the listening sessions are supposed to be a voice for the contituents.

We are a Republic, not a democracy,

and as such our elected Representatives are given the power to enact policy and law on our behalf and manage our collective interests. Evenso, the USA was designed to be a government of the people, for the people, and by the people. This is why those who agree with the principles that went into the Constitution do expect to have a voice and to be heard.

(1) Tort reform: As I wrote recently, our crazy system of casino malpractice suits results in massive and random settlements that raise everyone's insurance premiums and creates an epidemic of defensive medicine that does no medical good, yet costs a fortune.

An authoritative Massachusetts Medical Society study found that five out of six doctors admitted they order tests, procedures and referrals -- amounting to about 25 percent of the total -- solely as protection from lawsuits. Defensive medicine, estimates the libertarian/conservative Pacific Research Institute, wastes more than $200 billion a year. Just half that sum could provide a $5,000 health insurance grant -- $20,000 for a family of four -- to the uninsured poor (U.S. citizens ineligible for other government health assistance).

What to do? Abolish the entire medical-malpractice system. Create a new social pool from which people injured in medical errors or accidents can draw. The adjudication would be done by medical experts, not lay juries giving away lottery prizes at the behest of the liquid-tongued John Edwardses who pocket a third of the proceeds.

The pool would be funded by a relatively small tax on all health-insurance premiums. Socialize the risk; cut out the trial lawyers. Would that immunize doctors from carelessness or negligence? No. The penalty would be losing your medical license. There is no more serious deterrent than forfeiting a decade of intensive medical training and the livelihood that comes with it.

(2) Real health-insurance reform: Tax employer-provided health care benefits and return the money to the employee with a government check to buy his own medical insurance, just as he buys his own car or home insurance.

There is no logical reason to get health insurance through your employer. This entire system is an accident of World War II wage and price controls. It's economically senseless. It makes people stay in jobs they hate, decreasing labor mobility and therefore overall productivity. And it needlessly increases the anxiety of losing your job by raising the additional specter of going bankrupt through illness.

The Whole Essay Here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/08/07/health_care_reform_a_better_plan_97804.html

Is It 2012 Already?
(Brad Jackson, CBS News, August 6, 2009)

There are a whopping 1189 days until the 2012 election, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the moves of GOP presidential hopefuls. Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and other Republicans looking to oust Barack Obama are already lining up staff, raising money, building networks of supporters, and helping fellow politicians as they lay the groundwork for the next battle for the White House. In fact, you have to look no further than the hottest policy issue of the moment - healthcare reform - for signs of the early struggle for Republican constituencies.

This week, Pawlenty and Romney fought over the best method for reforming our nation's healthcare system, each presenting competing ideas, each taking a slight swipe at the other along the way. Pawlenty, the outgoing Governor of Minnesota, trumpeted his state's plan where state employees, "can choose any clinic available to them in the health-care network they've selected," of course those options that are more costly incur higher out of pocket expenses. He also took a stab at Romney's home state of Massachusetts where the former Governor enacted a state-wide insurance system aimed at covering nearly every citizen. A side effect of this plan has been rapidly rising costs of care in the Bay State, costs that Pawlenty pointed out, mean increased fees and taxes. The Minnesota Governor asked in a Washington Post Op-Ed piece, "Imagine the scope of tax increases, or additional deficit spending, if that approach is utilized for the entire country."

Not to be outdone, Romney responded in his own Op-Ed in USA Today where he insisted that President Obama must "dump the public option." The former Governor also countered Pawlenty's accusations of high cost overruns in the Massachusetts plan saying that the state's costs were "pretty much on target."

Both men are seeking to inject themselves into the nation's heated healthcare debate to garner attention, and establish themselves as credible sources on this issue well before they have to argue and debate it in 2012 primary debates.

Romney has something on his side that Pawlenty does not - name recognition. In spite of his defeat in the 2008 Republican primary to John McCain, Mitt Romney has remained quite popular in Republican circles, speaking to a raucous crowd at CPAC in February and even winning the organizations straw poll for 2012. American Conservative Union chairman David Keene referred to Romney as "one of us" at his CPAC introduction, something that may have been impossible to fathom during a presidential campaign where GOP competitors rolled out YouTube moment after YouTube moment of Romney flip-flopping on issues espoused in earlier campaigns for public office. The former Governor's message that February day was one conservatives to latch on to in the days just after Obama's inauguration: fiscal restraint, America first, and local control. Railing against the early plans for healthcare reform, and imploring Washington to provide a big tax cut for middle income Americans, Romney took the plurality of the votes, winning the straw poll for 2012 ahead of other possible contenders like Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee and even Pawlenty.

Recent polling shows that Republicans have, unsurprisingly, not yet settled on a favorite. A Gallup poll just a few weeks ago, home of the nation's first caucuses, just about 30 months away, showed Romney leading Palin by five-points, 26 - 21 percent, with former Arkansas Governor and current Fox News host Mike Huckabee in third with 19 percent of the vote. A broader poll done by the Washington Post and ABC News found Huckabee ahead 26 - 21 over Romney with Palin and Gingrich nipping at their heals.

One key factor in the 2012 race that may go unnoticed though is the help that these potential candidates offer to other politicians on the ballot in next year's 2010 elections. Palin, a rock star on the road in 2008 who drew thousands at rallies, has been a much-sought after fundraiser for races across the country. For Congressman, Governors, even those running for State House or State Senate, many conservative Republicans are hoping to get a boost from the Palin effect by having the popular former Governor, who has battled with the liberal media lately, into their state or their district for big and small dollar fundraisers. Palin's ability to garner good will from these candidates and their voters will be invaluable should she come calling a year or so later as her potential campaign for the White House was kicking into high gear.

Palin, Romney, Huckabee and others will use many of the pivotal races next year as a chance to up their name recognition among party leaders in states like Texas where there is both a hotly contested GOP primary for Governor and, soon enough, an open Senate seat. Texas is fertile ground for any Republican looking to run nationally, having provided more than $30 million to GOP presidential candidates alone in 2008. Palin has already announced her endorsement of Texas Governor Rick Perry in his primary battle with sitting U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, and is "committed to campaigning" for his re-election bid. These campaign stops will allow the former Alaska Governor to make in-roads with Texas grassroots leaders, state Republican organizations, and most importantly - big dollar donors in the Lone Star State.

Look for other aspiring GOPers to follow suit in other state with big 2010 races like Florida, California and Ohio- - all sources of tens of millions in potential campaign donations and growing networks of supporters and grassroots volunteers. Each of the major Republican presidential players don't just work the country raising money for others though, they also seek to fill the tills of their own campaign coffers. Palin has reportedly raised more than $900,000 for her SarahPAC so far in 2009, which is still far behind the more than $1.6 million that Romney has brought in during the same time period. Huckabee trails with just over $300,000 in the bank at this point - and frankly, the organization he's building shows signs of major weakness at this point. One interesting item to watch on Palin's fundraising though is that a surprising 60% of her contributions came in amounts less than $200. That's a good sign as it means she has a broader base of low-dollar donors who she can return to time and time again, a strategy exploited to excellent effect by President Obama his 2008 campaign.

Of course, all these early predictions for a race this far out should be tempered. At this point before the 2008 election Obama wasn't even showing up in polls for the Democratic nomination, and Rudy Giuliani was leading the Republican polls. Both campaigns clearly had a long way to go at that point, one a long way down, and the other all the up to the White House.

As you begin to see the 2010 campaigns kick into high gear after Labor Day with growing amounts of mail, email, phone calls and yes, even TV commercials, keep a close eye on which 2012 hopefuls are backing your candidate for Governor or Senator, or which ones appear on Meet the Press or Fox News Sunday. Even though we are 1189 days away from that 2012 election, right now the groundwork is being laid for an arduous race to come.

Did the European media refer to that as"Colosseum games" and "professional wrestling shows"?