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AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 02:53 pm
@old europe,
Sure seems doable to me given the fairly low percentage of our oil imports that we get from the Middle East and Venezuela. But why don't you google it if you like to google that well? How many barrels of oil do we import from the Middle East and Venezuela? And how many barrels of oil does one nuclear power plant replace? And how many nuclear power plants could be under construction if we started right now? If we knew that we would know whether my perception is anywhere close to possible or really off base wouldn't we?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 02:55 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

I am not a reader of the EIR, but this article came up first on my search results when researching how long it takes to build a nuclear power plant. Perhaps GeorgeOb1 could express an opinion on the accuracy of the statement below?
Quote:
There are about 30 units now in construction in the world, with construction times of five to six years, so we are now building about 6 units per year.
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2005/3225build_6000_nukes.html

Well the arithmetic there is deceptive in a very elementary way. If, using the 5-6 year estimate for "building" a nuclear power plant is taken as accurate, and if there were, instead 90 units in construction in the world (something that is easily feasible), then by the same arithmetic we would be building 18 units per year.

The big issue is; what does "building" or "in construction" mean? Just the permitting process for the construction of even a new transmission line to serve a new wind farm or the permitting of a new nuclear plant can take several years before construction begins. The NRC has vastly simplified the permitting process for nuclear plants in this country, and about 20 permits are in process now, with about eight now in the final stages. The lead time for the construction and delivery of key components such as the reactor vessel, steam generators and pumps can be substantial - up to 18 months. The construction and operational readiness process can be fairly rapid if permitting and long lead ordering is done efficiently -- a little over two years. Lawsuits from interveners can be an unpredictable factor for any new energy project, wind or nuclear.

Interestingly the capital cost for nuclear plants - per unit of energy actually produced - is lower than that for wind power by a factor of more than two. Most of the data published by advocates of wind power cite the cost & benefit in terms of the peak capacity of the installed wind turbines. Unfortunately none come even close to that in terms of the power they actually produce. Whereas U.S. nuclear plants have averaged an actual output (24/7/365) greater than 91% of their rated capacity for the past six years.

There are good theoretical reasons that limit the "capacity factor" of wind farms (average real power output as a % of theoretical maximum output) at about 35%. In fact most plants do a good deal less than that. The current world average is about 20%, with offshore plants and new onshore ones in particularly favorable areas (coastal Denmark, the high plains of the U. S. getting about 27%, but inland areas in Germany doing much worse at about 18%.

Finally, because the wind doesn't blow all the time, and the most favorable locations are generally very far from the points of consumption, we must both retain our existing coal & gas plants to supplement the relatively unreliable wind (& solar) sources and create a much more extensive (and costly) ttransmission system to deliver the power so produced to its users.
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 02:56 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

McCain is a politician and he's going to say stuff that he can't deliver just like Obama says stuff that he can't deliver. I doubt anybody has ever run for office for anything who didn't promise at least one thing s/he couldn't deliver and probably knew it. To condemn one guy and not the other for that however, is pure partisanship and ideology with no reasonableness or fairness built in.
******************************************************

Exactly. BO has set a record. He has reneged on

Placement of Terrorists from Gitmo

Neglecting the Promise of Transparency( which he campaigned on) with his 750 Billion transfer of monies to the IMF.

Sending 17,000 more troops to Afghanistan, thereby prolonging the war there.

Suuporting Tribunals for Gitmo prisoners which he abjured in his election promises.

Dithering on one of the key issues of the day-immigration- 100 days has passed and BO has done nothing with regard to this issue.

Not intervening in the firing of gays from the military--despite his promise to allow gay men and women to serve.

Inviting the prosecution of Bush officials for their antiterror legal advice

Keeping our troops in Iraq for much longer than he promised. BO has decreed that it will take much longer than 16 months for our troops to leave Iraq and they WONT LEAVE EVEN THEN.



With a liar and temporizer like BO in the presidency, our nation is in real trouble.
0 Replies
 
DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 02:57 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:


DTOM meant 'McCain' when he/she said 'mac' right then.


Shocked dude!?!? yeah, my hair's pretty long , but ****.... and after we been swell pals for alla these years now. Laughing

0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 02:57 pm
@georgeob1,
I think the inference from the cited article that once construction is approved, the anticipated time from then until power is being generated and delivered would be five or six years. (That was my impression but I could be wrong about that.) I don't think anybody is unaware of the horrendous problems involved in getting permits, etc. to start construction, but wouldn't you agree that government, if sufficiently motivated to do so, could significantly speed up that process?

But on another matter, do you have the data of approximately how many barrels of oil converted to electric energy can be replaced by a nuclear power plant?
0 Replies
 
DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 02:59 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

You are extraordinarily naughty.


i like that in a girl. Wink
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:00 pm
George OB 1 wrote:

Finally, because the wind doesn't blow all the time, and the most favorable locations are generally very far from the points of consumption, we must both retain our existing coal & gas plants to supplement the relatively unreliable wind (& solar) sources and create a much more extensive (and costly) ttransmission system to deliver the power so produced to its users.
*****************************************************
exactly correct. We must retain our existing coal and gas plants.

The Chinese, who will soon pass us as the major industrial power in the world.(the left wing, (who hate the the USA) are eager to see this happen. In the meantime, the Chinese and India are building more and more coal and gas fired plants WHICH DO NOT HAVE SO CALLED POLLUTION CONTROLS.
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:02 pm
@parados,
Parados obviously thinks that there are places where the wind blows ALL THE TIME. Of course, he thinks all of these places are close to the cities which need the power generated by wind. They are not.

Parados is not well informed. Even the left wing Ny York Times showed that wind power is no where near the possiblities offered by nuclear power.

Note:

genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:10 pm
@genoves,

Published: August 26, 2008
When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind farm spent $320 million to put nearly 200 wind turbines in upstate New York, the idea was to get paid for producing electricity. But at times, regional electric lines have been so congested that Maple Ridge has been forced to shut down even with a brisk wind blowing.


Articles in this series are examining the ways in which the world is, and is not, moving toward a more energy efficient, environmentally benign future.

Go to Series »
Related
Dot Earth: If You Love Wind … (August 27, 2008) Readers' Comments
"Massive wind farms in the Dakotas are great . . . but they aren't going to provide power to many big urban centers (if any) because that transmission loss is going to be a killer. "

That is a symptom of a broad national problem. Expansive dreams about renewable energy, like Al Gore’s hope of replacing all fossil fuels in a decade, are bumping up against the reality of a power grid that cannot handle the new demands.

The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not.

The grid today, according to experts, is a system conceived 100 years ago to let utilities prop each other up, reducing blackouts and sharing power in small regions. It resembles a network of streets, avenues and country roads.

“We need an interstate transmission superhighway system,” said Suedeen G. Kelly, a member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

While the United States today gets barely 1 percent of its electricity from wind turbines, many experts are starting to think that figure could hit 20 percent.

Achieving that would require moving large amounts of power over long distances, from the windy, lightly populated plains in the middle of the country to the coasts where many people live. Builders are also contemplating immense solar-power stations in the nation’s deserts that would pose the same transmission problems.

The grid’s limitations are putting a damper on such projects already. Gabriel Alonso, chief development officer of Horizon Wind Energy, the company that operates Maple Ridge, said that in parts of Wyoming, a turbine could make 50 percent more electricity than the identical model built in New York or Texas.

“The windiest sites have not been built, because there is no way to move that electricity from there to the load centers,” he said.

The basic problem is that many transmission lines, and the connections between them, are simply too small for the amount of power companies would like to squeeze through them. The difficulty is most acute for long-distance transmission, but shows up at times even over distances of a few hundred miles.

Transmission lines carrying power away from the Maple Ridge farm, near Lowville, N.Y., have sometimes become so congested that the company’s only choice is to shut down " or pay fees for the privilege of continuing to pump power into the lines.

Politicians in Washington have long known about the grid’s limitations but have made scant headway in solving them. They are reluctant to trample the prerogatives of state governments, which have traditionally exercised authority over the grid and have little incentive to push improvements that would benefit neighboring states.

*******************************************

Parados really should put away his comic book and start reading the NY Times. He should not worry. It won't infect him. The NY Times is solidly \left wing.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:25 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

How do you know?


Oh, I know. Knowledge of funniness is one thing I'm extremely willing to assert. And Conservatives just ain't very funny.

Quote:
Did you mean your 'decades to build a nuclear power plant' to be a joke?


As you can see from the ensuing discussion whilst I was eating lunch, I clearly was not joking. While I am a proponent of Nuclear energy generation, and support the expansion of it here in America, it isn't logical to state that we can build more than a handful of plants within the next decade. GeorgeOB outlined the process pretty well above and it doesn't seem likely that we could build the necessary capacity within the time frame McCain proposed.

You will recall that I said that both candidates were 'optimistic,' not that either one had any real advantage over the other.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
DontTreadOnMe
 
  4  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:28 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

And a nation who put a man on the moon should also be able to;


develop safe and clean sources of energy.

develop and provide a universal healthcare system that is inexpensive, efficient and far superior to that offered in other industrialized nations.

should be able to develop and build efficient and safe high speed rail systems across the country.

should be able to develop and provide not just adequate, but safe and superior public schools that develop minds in all areas of education, including the sciences and the arts.

develop and manufacture goods that are well made, reasonably priced and made in america by american workers.

develop and grow nutritious vegetables, grains, fruit and food animals that are of high quality, safe to eat and reasonably priced so as to be available to even the poorest so they aren't consigned to eating useless McFood with no qualities other than being terrific if you're trying grow a humongous ass.

develop, equip and maintain a military that can confidently go into combat without the need to write home for a flak jacket, or scrounge around for scraps of sheet metal to weld on to the glorified dune buggies they're expected to roll across booby trapped roads under heavy weapons fire.

develop and maintain a full time fleet of high orbit and space vehicles so that we don't have to beg russia for a lift up to our own space station.

develop and launch space vehicles capable of interplanetary travel so we can boost our learning about the galaxy and universe we live in rather than rely on explanations written by ancients who believed the world was flat and the sun revolved around the earth. hasn't it occured to people that it is entirely possible that we might find a source of safe energy that would be cheap to develop for our needs?

develop and provide medical treatments unhampered by philosophical dogma.

understand that relying on "trust in god" may be comforting, but "e pluribus unum" provided more, and better results.


Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:31 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
The current world average is about 20%, with offshore plants and new onshore ones in particularly favorable areas (coastal Denmark, the high plains of the U. S. getting about 27%, but inland areas in Germany doing much worse at about 18%.


There are only a few inland places here with wind turbines that do 18% (down to 15%), mostly "prestige objects" by some municipalities.
Our here in the region do 22%+.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:33 pm
@DontTreadOnMe,
DontTreadOnMe wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:

And a nation who put a man on the moon should also be able to;


develop safe and clean sources of energy.

develop and provide a universal healthcare system that is inexpensive, efficient and far superior to that offered in other industrialized nations.

should be able to develop and build efficient and safe high speed rail systems across the country.

should be able to develop and provide not just adequate, but safe and superior public schools that develop minds in all areas of education, including the sciences and the arts.

develop and manufacture goods that are well made, reasonably priced and made in america by american workers.

develop and grow nutritious vegetables, grains, fruit and food animals that are of high quality, safe to eat and reasonably priced so as to be available to even the poorest so they aren't consigned to eating useless McFood with no qualities other than being terrific if you're trying grow a humongous ass.

develop, equip and maintain a military that can confidently go into combat without the need to write home for a flak jacket, or scrounge around for scraps of sheet metal to weld on to the glorified dune buggies they're expected to roll across booby trapped roads under heavy weapons fire.

develop and maintain a full time fleet of high orbit and space vehicles so that we don't have to beg russia for a lift up to our own space station.

develop and launch space vehicles capable of interplanetary travel so we can boost our learning about the galaxy and universe we live in rather than rely on explanations written by ancients who believed the world was flat and the sun revolved around the earth. hasn't it occured to people that it is entirely possible that we might find a source of safe energy that would be cheap to develop for our needs?

develop and provide medical treatments unhampered by philosophical dogma.

understand that relying on "trust in god" may be comforting, but "e pluribus unum" provided more, and better results.


Spot ******* on.

Sorry about the gender thing, I couldn't remember and didn't want to make an unpardonable mistake.

Cycloptichorn
DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 03:47 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Sorry about the gender thing, I couldn't remember and didn't want to make an unpardonable mistake.


that's okay. back in the day i was able to hit some pretty high notes. Laughing
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 04:07 pm
Dont tread on me shows his incredible ignorance when he writes:

develop and manufacture goods that are well made, reasonably priced and made in america by american workers.

Is Dont Tread on Me so stupid that he does not know that if his prescription were followed, our recession would become a depression for the next twenty years. If Dont Tread on Me knows how to read fairly difficult prose, he should reference the writings of

l. The Fed Chairman --Bernanke

2. BO's chief economic advisor-Larry Summers

and even BO's Treasury Secretary.

He would find that all of them would plead--NO PROTECTIONISM PLEASE-

That would ruin our country for years and years.

I am sure that Dont Tread on Me never heard of Smoot-Hawley. Look it up and you will find out exactly why your naive and puerile comment wont work at all.
0 Replies
 
Advocate
 
  2  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 04:19 pm
The right is still hitting Pelosi on the CIA torture issue. Please consider the following, which shows that the CIA misleading congress is nothing new.


CIA Shot Down American Missionary Plane, Repeatedly Misled Congress, Report Finds



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CIA repeatedly misled Congress and the Justice Department in their investigations of the 2001 shoot-down of a Peruvian plane carrying U.S. missionaries, according to findings of an internal CIA probe released today by congressional officials.

The agency's inspector general concluded that CIA officers in Peru consistently ignored rules of engagement in connection with the downing of at least 10 aircraft suspected of carrying narcotics over the South American country. Yet, CIA managers covered up the problems and knowingly gave false accounts to government officials investigating whether agency employees committed crimes.

Excerpts of the inspector general's report were released by Rep. Peter Hoekstra (Mich.), the ranking Republican on the House intelligence committee. He called today for a new criminal inquiry, as well as congressional hearings, into what he described as a "startling" attempted coverup by the spy agency.

--Washington Post
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 04:20 pm
Cyclops doesn't know sh.t about Nuclear Energy since they don't allow Nuclear Energy near his cubicle in Berkeley. I am sorry about the length of this link but those who are really interested in seeing just how wrong Cyclops is about Nuclear Energy should read the entire article:


This article appears in the June 24, 2005 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.
How To Build 6,000 Nuclear Plants
by 2050
We asked nuclear engineer James Muckerheide how many nuclear plants would be needed to bring the world's population up to a decent standard of living, and how to do it. Here are his answers.

In 1997-1998, I made an estimate of how many nuclear plants would be needed in the world by 2050. It reflects an economy that is directed to provide the energy necessary to meet basic human needs, especially for the developing regions.

The initiative required is not unlike what the U.S. government did to build the nation: for example, to bring electric power to rural areas; to provide transportation by building roads and highways and canals, and the intercontinental railroads, and airlines; to develop water supplies and irrigation systems; to provide telephone service, medical and hospital services; and many other programs that were essential to develop an advanced society, and to lift regions out of poverty.

However, we need to do more to meet those needs, both within the United States and for the developing world, to bring those people into the economic mainstream, instead of leaving them to be just cheap sources of our labor and raw materials.

The Role of Nuclear Energy
My projections simply envisioned nuclear energy growing from supplying 6% of world energy needs today to one third of the energy demand in 2050, which was taken to grow by about a factor of 3 from 2000. But, of course, that begs the question: Can fossil fuels continue to provide energy at or slightly above present levels, to produce about one third of the energy demand in 2050? And is it likely that hydro, wind energy, and other alternatives can provide the other third, which is also the equivalent of 100% of today's total energy use?

So, nuclear power in 2050 would be roughly 18 times its current use. This requires fewer than the number of plants I projected in 1997, and is equivalent to about 5,100 1,000-megawatt-electric (MWe) plants.

But nuclear energy must produce more than just electricity; it must produce fresh water by desalination of seawater, hydrogen production to displace gasoline and diesel fuel for transportation, process heat for industry, and so on.

Note that, in this case, nuclear energy does not displace coal, oil, and gas. About 200% of current energy use would still have to come from fossil fuels and alternative sources. If oil and gas production cannot be maintained up to about 100 millions barrels per day, this would require an even greater commitment to nuclear energy, especially if nuclear energy is needed to extract oil from tar sands, oil shales, and coal.

There are pollution-control and other cost pressures limiting supply that will make fossil fuels more costly in any event. We need to consider this in the light that nuclear energy can be produced indefinitely at roughly the cost that it can be produced today.

The alternative is to continue "business-as-usual." These conditions are even now producing international conflicts over oil and gas supplies, large environmental pollution costs in trying to increase fossil fuel production, and high costs to try to subsidize uneconomical "alternative" energy sources. This is leading the world into economic collapse, without adequate energy supplies, where the rich feel the need to acquire the significant resources of the economy, with growing disparities in income and wealth, even in the developed world, and frustration in the developing and undeveloped world from the limits on their ability to function economically.

Calculating Energy Demand
By 2050, given current trends, world population will increase from today's 6 billion-plus people to an estimated 9 to 10 billion people, with most of the increase coming from the developing world. The current development in China, India, and elsewhere, indicates the enormous growth now in progress. Today, if anything, such development projections may be understated.

The industrialized world per capita energy use may drop to 65 to 75% of current use, with increased efficiency, however there will be greater energy demands for the new, non-electrical applications, using more energy to extract end-use energy such as oil and hydrogen.

The developing world will substantially increase per capita energy use, to 40 to 50% of current use in the developed world. Going from a bicycle to a motor scooter, may require only a few gallons of fuel per year, but it's a large increment over the amount being used with the bicycle. And motorbikes lead to cars. Even in the last 5 to 10 years, there has been an enormous increase in vehicles, in China especially, and in other developing regions. These are large population"more than 2 billion people"and their need for oil is becoming enormous.

Therefore, if we are to achieve a world that is providing the energy required for developed and developing societies, along with substantial relief of human suffering and deprivation, energy use will be around three times that of today.

Nuclear Energy is Competitive and Cost-effective
Nuclear power is currently competitive and cost-effective. Numerous pragmatic current and recent construction projects around the world provide a strong basis for cost projections in the United States, Europe, and other locations that do not have current experience. Electricity from available nuclear power plant designs is lower than current costs from recent coal and gas plants, and reasonable projections of electricity costs from future coal and gas plants.

There is a popular view that nuclear power is the high-cost option. However, during the 1968 to 1978 nuclear power construction period, there were economic benefits even when there were almost 200 plants ordered and being procured and constructed, with massive construction costs. All of those plants established strong competition with oil, gas, and coal, and the competitive pressure brought down the cost of fossil-fuel-generated electricity a great deal. Ratepayers in the United States saved billions of dollars in fossil fuel costs over almost three decades.

Without the nuclear option, we have lost that competitive pressure. Prices are not constrained by that competition and have been increased, along with increased demand for scarce oil, gas, and coal resources. So, if we build nuclear power plants, even before a significant number of plants are operational, and especially if we have the ability to build plants in a timely manner, we will have an effect of reducing the excessive demand for, and costs of, coal and gas for providing electricity"to the benefit of the whole economy. We must consider that as part of the economic equation that doesn't presently exist in the way we evaluate nuclear power costs: the externalized benefits to society.

We know about calculating externalized costs, but we do not adequately calculate externalized benefits. It's time to do so.

Of course, people still consider the very high costs of the large nuclear plants ordered in the early 1970s. But these suffered the unanticipated effects of high component and labor costs, design changes in process after the Three Mile Island accident, and long construction times with high financing costs.

Today, we are prepared to manufacture and pre-build modules, reducing construction schedules to limit that long-term financial exposure, even if there were increases in interest rates. Future projects will undertake plant construction with approved designs, with "constructability" incorporated. The current generation of early plants are simply artifacts of the historical first phase of nuclear power plant design and construction, just as the Ford Tri-Motor and the DC-3 are artifacts of the first phases of passenger aircraft.

The Mass Production Road to 2050
Because the time frames for these construction requirements are long, and we need significant contributions to power supplies by 2020, we can't just increase production exponentially to put a lot of the power on line in the decade from 2040-2050. We need a substantial amount of nuclear electricity before 2030, and need to install a construction capacity that would produce a stable plant production rate for the future, to meet both a nominal energy growth and to replace old nuclear, and other energy plants. Consider that China is building roughly one new coal plant per week now, and the United States has about 100 coal plants on the drawing board. These plants and hundreds of others will need to be replaced after 2050.

Obviously, we would install much of that capacity between 2030 and 2050. But to get from here to 2030, we have to re-examine how we plan, and commit, to installing nuclear plants. The current idea in the United States, of building one plant by 2010, and 10 more by 2020, is a long way from the needed 2,000 or so in the world by 2030. Fortunately, other countries are doing more to meet the need.

We have to commit now to manufacturing the pressure vessels and other large components in mass quantities, instead of waiting for future ad hoc contracts from individual companies. Waiting leads to substantial overheads and delays to develop contracts, which are subject to the ad hoc process of integrating such plans into the production capabilities of vendors, with, again, rising costs and/or extended schedules, as negotiations are entered for limited production capacity, with high risks perceived for commitments to expand manufacturing capacity vs. the assurance that the industry will not collapse again. Individual companies would still have to develop plans and contracts for new plants, but those plants would come from national policies that engage the developed and developing countries to commit to the production and installation of nuclear power plants to produce a large, worldwide plant manufacturing capacity.

We must also commit to working on evolutionary designs that can reduce the cost of current and future plants. For example, current requirements for containment pressure and leakage, radiation control, including ALARA (the as low as reasonably achievable standard), and so on, can be made more reasonable, along with designs that have less conservatism in design and analysis, without reducing nuclear power plant safety. In addition to engaging the manufacturing industries directly, we must engage the major national and international standards organizations, and other international non-governmental organizations, in this effort.

A plan for rapid growth to a level long-term production capacity to support long-term energy growth and replacement of old plants and fossil fuels, would result in producing roughly 200 new units per year. We can plan for 6,000 equivalent units, taking our present operating plant capacity as about 300 1,000-MWe equivalent units (from about 440 actual units).

There are about 30 units now in construction in the world, with construction times of five to six years, so we are now building about 6 units per year. This will substantially increase in the next two to three years, so we can take something more than 10 units per year as a current baseline, and can plan for a rapid increase in current capacity to a level of about 200 units per year after 2040. We would use current and near-term nuclear power plant construction experience to adopt initial plant designs and major suppliers. We would focus primarily on the required fuel cycle capacity and major component manufacturing, and primary materials and infrastructure, including the required people, to produce nuclear units more like the way we build 747s, with parts in modules being delivered for assembly from around the world, while moving to a more regional manufacturing strategy.

Note that "manufacturing" applies to on-site and near-site support of construction by producing major modules outside of the construction area of the plant itself. The modules built on-site in Japan to construct the two 1,356-MWe ABWRs (advanced boiling water reactors) in about four years, which came on line in 1996 and 1997, weighed up to 650 tons and were lifted into the plant.

The World War II and TVA Precedents
We have the experience of the expansion of production capacity in a few years before and during World War II. President Roosevelt anticipated the need, by engaging industry leaders before the U.S. entry into the war, including earlier production to support U.S. merchant marine shipbuilding, and to supply Britain and Russia using the "lend-lease" program. Henry Kaiser built Liberty ships, which took six months before the war, delivering more than one per day.

The early TVA experience built large projects that integrated production and construction, with labor requirements and capabilities. Unfortunately, as with many large organizations, the later management failed to fully understand and maintain the capabilities that were largely taken for granted as the historical legacy of the organization, with inadequate commitments to maintain that capability. However, there are examples of maintaining those capabilities, in organizations like DuPont and the U.S. Nuclear Navy. These principles must be applied.

In addition, our original nuclear power construction experience demonstrates that these capabilities are readily achievable. Today there are 103 operating nuclear units in the United States, ordered from 1967 to 1973. There were about 200 units in production and construction by the late 1970s. So, even with little management coordination"poor management by many owners and constructors, with plant owners, vendors, and constructors jockeying for position and running up costs in the marketplace"we were building about 20 units per year.

But we got ahead of ourselves. Costs were driven up by competitive bidding and capital constraints, but more important, there was much lower electricity growth following the 1973 oil embargo, which had not returned to near pre-embargo rates as had been expected by many in the industry. The then-existing excess baseload plant capacity was sufficient to satisfy the slower growth in demand for two decades, relying primarily on coal, which we have in abundance, and in the 1990s, by building low-cost natural gas-burning plants, when the cost of gas was low. But that was an obvious failure to do competent planning, which has clearly exacerbated our current inadequate ability to provide for long-term energy needs of the U.S. and the world, with rising costs that will threaten the world economy.

The Industrial Gear-up Required for
Mass Production
What kind of industries would have to gear up"steel, concrete, new materials, nuts and bolts, and reactor vessel producers?

The cornerstone of manufacturing for an accelerated program is in fuel supplies and reactor pressure vessels, along with steam generators and turbines, and large pumps. Much of the piping and plumbing, power systems, cables, instrumentation and other systems, plus the concrete and steel for the containment and other buildings, are high volumes of materials, but these should be more readily met within the general industrial production of concrete and steel, and other industrial components and equipment.

This also contributes to redevelopment of essential production capacities that need to expand and to be retooled, along with reactivating substantial steel capacity.

The fuel supply is critical. Initially, uranium mining can be substantially expanded. However, high-grade uranium supplies will be exhausted, along with surplus nuclear weapons materials, requiring the use of lower-grade ores. Ultimately, uranium can also be extracted from ocean water, at only about 10 times the extraction costs of lower grade ore, where it is replenished from natural discharges into the oceans. Because, unlike other fuels, the cost of uranium is a relatively small fraction of the cost of producing nuclear energy, such an increase does not substantially affect the costs and advantages of nuclear power. Extraction of uranium might be effectively done in conjunction with desalination plants. Uranium from seawater, combined with breeder reactors, makes it clear that these resources are good for thousands of years.

The need for conversion and enrichment capabilities would be substantial, along with fuel assembly manufacturing, including the need to establish large-scale ceramic fuel manufacturing for the high-temperature gas reactors, and develop reprocessing facilities to extend uranium fuel supplies. Initially, this would be done by making plutonium-uranium mixed oxide (MOX) fuels, and then later developing breeder reactor fuels. India, for example, is developing a thorium-based breeder reactor to take advantage of its thorium resources, and limited uranium.

Production to Follow the Eurasian Land-Bridge
As to where the facilities would be located: The idea of Land-Bridge development applies here. Today, pressure vessels are built in a few locations and transported around the world. But in planning for necessary nuclear power plant construction, it would be rational to locate pressure vessel, steam generator, large pump and valve manufacturing, and other major component facilities relative to the major plant construction and transportation locations, along with steel sources. These decisions would be made with the industries and countries that would produce the components.

Initially, two or more major pressure vessel facilities might need to be developed to be able to produce about 20 vessels per year. These would be massive facilities. With an initial target to ultimately produce 200 plants per year in the 2040s, we would decide later whether to develop 10 to 20 such facilities around the world, or to make larger and fewer facilities. This will reflect the capabilities of the various companies that must do the work. We can get that capability into simultaneous production. We can construct the large PWRs in four to five years, even three-and-one-half years or so, and down to two years for the gas reactors, using factory production, and on-site manufacturing production of modules. On-site plant construction is therefore more of an assembly process, as well as the construction process that we normally think of in building large concrete and steel structures and facilities.

Manufacturing facilities would be located with consideration of the known and anticipated locations of future power plants, steel suppliers, transportation capabilities, and so on. A constructive competitive environment can be established to keep the system dynamically improving and reducing costs, with necessary elements of competition and rewards to the companies and people producing the components.

Strategic development and implementation of nuclear plants, like the Eurasian Land-Bridge concept, lies in building networks, not just building out linearly as the United States did in moving to join the East and West in building the transcontinental railroad. It is more like the following period in railroad history, when simultaneous railroad lines were tying together the country; for example, the north and south in bringing Texas cattle to the Chicago stockyards, supported by the telegraph with its ability to implement network communications. The process is explicitly oriented to develop along a strategic path, rather than ad hoc plans to develop energy sources and communications around cities that grow as a result of a non-planned, non-networked, model. To be more precise, in the 1800s the city-region was the network, even in large cities where water and power had to be brought from hundreds of miles away. Today, intercity infrastructure needs to be integrated with intracity-regional systems.

Such strategic plans anticipate growth of large nodes that require substantial infrastructure, which rely on and include power requirements"as in industrial complexes and large cities of more than a few hundred-thousand people. We can consider somewhat separately the mega-cities of 20-plus million people that are being created. They require an obvious, localized, large energy component, with a primary role for electricity, but with a heavy demand on the transportation capacity to supply the population and industries, and export the products of the cities. The growing cities of an integrated industrial economy are networked by transportation and communications. Electrification of the railways, and non-electric energy for heat, for example, to provide desalinated water, must be considered.

Electric grids also require that power loads be balanced, which further requires planning in a network strategy, instead of linear development as occurred in the early United States, where, even after the beginning of installing electricity, "the grid" was essentially localized to cities.

In building out a network, we can take a manufacturing mode with the construction of nuclear plants to supply the network that is growing an industrial economy, instead of a focus on the major cities, as occurred with the original U.S. electric power system development. This fragmented result of ad hoc private decisions, responding to individual profit opportunities, had to later be fixed by government, including, for power, government agencies like the great Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), the creation of the Rural Electrification Administration, and so on, to bring the nation together. As still is true today, this could not have happened effectively by leaving ad hoc decisions with the private financial interests, focussing on assured quick-return profit opportunities in individual projects. It could be delivered by corporate America when given the opportunity, just as with the great dam projects, providing power and water for cities and irrigation, and even recreation, with the associated economic development of the American West.

So, nuclear power plant construction should be transformed from the mode of plant-by-plant construction of ad hoc projects, into a manufacturing-based strategy. France is a prototype. In 1973-1974 a national decision was made to build nuclear plants in convoy series, to make decisions on designs and to install those designs multiple times, with evolutionary enhancements in size, costs, and safety for future plants. Many plants are put on line in a manufacturing planning mode, not constrained by plant-by-plant decision-making and plant construction mode only as individual project profits can be reasonably assured.

This allows the advantage of mass production, with programmatic commitments to make the vessels and major components to support a plant assembly approach. Individual plants would be installed to meet the electric power market needs. This is especially true of the modular gas reactors.

There are areas that have high power demands now"southern China for example. In addition, there are developing areas extending inland to produce energy for local development along a Silk Road model. Initial energy demands in such areas are not enormous, so that instead of large light water reactor plants, we could incrementally build dozens of modular units over decades, combined with evaluating power to eventually be fed to, and supplied from, the growth of the larger regional and national grid.

Installation sequences would dynamically respond, to both lead and follow growth. We could build two or four plants in one location, and move down the road 200 miles and build two or four more; then build two or four more at the original location as the demand grows. This would be very responsive to local conditions and growing demand over time, while the central facilities would build units in a long-term planned strategy for a number of pressure vessels per year. Although the 285-MWe GT-MHR (General Atomics' gas-turbine modular helium reactor) modular plants are small, compared to light water reactors, the pressure vessels are as large as 1,200-MWe pressurized water reactors (PWRs). When, 10 or 20 years later, we need to expand the capacity to build pressure vessels, we will work with the manufacturers either to expand existing facilities or to select and develop other locations.

Political Framework: The Rai1roads as a Model
So, we have the intercontinental railroad model: Start at key nodes, and expand toward other nodes. The railroad development in the United States is a paradigm. It shows that we need a central strategy, to empower the private sector to build in the national interest. The people doing the work were competing for contracts and building from, and developing, private industrial growth. Meanwhile, President Lincoln and the Congress made national decisions to establish routes, resolve public domain issues, provide incentives, and so on, that were required to support that strategic development. So, governmental direction and vision are needed, with private development, initiative and competition. This has to establish the framework in which the private industries can compete and succeed, to implement that vision in the national economic interest.

COMSAT is another model. Congress chartered a for-profit corporation to build a global system based on geosynchronous satellites instead of having to later fix a system that AT&T was ready to build based on low earth-orbit satellites with tracking-antenna to address the most profitable city links first, but would have left much of the world without satellite communications. COMSAT also developed contracts with many nations for their own communications development.

We need a similar government vision now on behalf of the nation, and the world, as a whole, with an orientation to critical infrastructure, that recognizes the human and economic needs, that rely primarily on low-cost energy. This does not need to be done by government directly, as was done, for example, with the TVA. But it must reflect a vision that engages the private sector and the public, to inspire people to see that their future security and opportunities are going to be provided by adequate development and growth in national and world economies, that are geared to meet human needs.

Otherwise, we are all going to be in a real crisis. That will become increasingly visible to the general public as our lack of adequate economic infrastructure, especially for energy supplies, with associated environmental and financial costs, as overwhelming the nation, and the world.

So, how do we proceed with this ambitious building and development program? We need both top-level direction and authorization, and private-sector initiatives.

Certainly, the fundamental decisions can only be made at the top. An organization must be created that has the resources and authority to make plans and commitments. But just how centralized that would be beyond the essential commitments and responsibilities for infrastructure planning and financing, how it works as a government/private sector implementation program, is flexible. It does not have to be large.

Private initiatives can be authorized, directed, and supported by government, more like the transcontinental railroad development. It was justified by national needs for mail delivery and military purposes, which also supported stage coaches and early airlines development, providing guarantees and funds for services. Or it can be a more centralized government role, like the TVA development, but thinking of this like Admiral Rickover thought of it, in using the private sector and competition to build the U.S. Nuclear Navy: Get the private sector to develop and deliver the technology, while government makes major strategic and programmatic decisions, contracting to undertake production capacity to meet demanding specifications and performance requirements.

We need a dynamic, competitive, management-driven enterprise, to prevent becoming trapped or captured by either private interests or self-serving government bureaucracies that don't, or don't continue to, perform well, either on the technology side or on the economic side. Such failures leave the national interest hostage to self-serving organizations and financial interests, whether private or governmental.

Consider the building of the transcontinental railroads in the United States, where the Union Pacific and Central Pacific were chartered to do the job, with subsidies, but they had to raise their own money, with government direction and guarantees. This was compromised in many ways, however, including buying Congressional support with Credit Mobilier stock for changes favorable to the owners, and so on. That was not a clean process.

Thomas Durant, who headed the Union Pacific effort, saw that most of the wealth would be generated from developing the track-side land and resources. The companies weren't making much progress on actually building the railroad, so Lincoln worked to shift incentives to have to build so many miles of track, and the company with the most miles of track at the end was going to make more money. Without that, the Union Pacific would have built out only slowly, focussing more on developing the more valuable land resources. So, for many years it was a substantial competition that had them going "hammer and tong." When they were building out, the Central Pacific was trying to get past Salt Lake City, Utah, to the coal deposits in the Wasatch mountains. They failed to do that when they could only get to Promontory Point, where the railroads joined up. But construction was being driven by rewards in obtaining such resources.

But historically, the transcontinental railroads, originally championed by Stephen Douglas, even with the major scandals, were a great and economically important success, as a national economic and political achievement. They captured the imagination of the country.

Achieving a great project transcends such details, and provides for the generation of great wealth for the economy as a whole, for the nation and the world. This wealth is greatly out of proportion to the costs from any such malfeasance.

So, there are lessons from considering where the interests and values are in developing an economy, beyond just thinking of it as a point A to point B transportation construction project, unlike ocean shipping. Or the need to have airlines serve smaller cities as well as the large cities.

What a Nuclear Energy Initiative
Can Bring to the World
First, even though such a nuclear power enterprise is an enormous project to salvage the world energy lifeline and to limit conflicts, while being a primary economic development engine, it is just the core of the larger decisions to provide adequate energy from coal and other technologies, plus other critical infrastructure required to provide for the human needs of the developing and undeveloped world, and expanding productive wealth in the developed world.

In addition, such a nuclear power and/or energy technology development initiative is also a foundation of common science and technology, and common purpose, for the world. It can be a model. It is a national and international enterprise, founded on government and private industry participation. It has the power to limit those non-productive machinations of both government and private financial interests that are in conflict, which constrain responsible government and private interests from working for greater general wealth and constructive progress for both the developed and developing world, while being enormously successful financially.

Nuclear power also has the advantage that it currently has a high international profile, and substantial, if relatively non-productive, ongoing national and international government organizations. For example, the United Nations, especially with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is essential to our need to safeguard uranium enrichment and plutonium production, plus many other institutional components. The major industry organizations are also more coordinated and compatible, with technologies and capabilities that are more complementary than other equivalent industries.

In addition, such actual public/private mechanisms can transcend some of the destructive national conflicts and destructive financial conditions, to meet actual worldwide energy needs, and to actually implement essential nuclear power energy supplies to prevent world conflicts over energy"in the real world. This can provide an initiative with a productive purpose that can push current non-productive governmental organizations to replace non-productive dialogue and make actual progress in meeting the human needs of the world.

With any success, these mechanisms can also contribute to models that can address other substantial national and international purposes, to engage the developed and developing nations to enable solutions, beyond current "policy discussions." These mechanisms can enable productive cooperation, along with healthy competition, that can enhance relevant technologies, and lower costs, instead of seeing little actual progress in major projects. This can include basic infrastructure, health care, and drug delivery, education and communications, and so on. These initiatives can constrain costs, and preclude destructive financing costs on developing and undeveloped nations.

The nuclear power enterprise can reduce the coming world energy conflicts, create wealth, and be a model to address the inability to deliver technology and services to the developing and undeveloped world and bring these societies into the economic mainstream. This can be the primary economic engine, the wealth-generating machine, for the 21st Century.

James Muckerheide, the State Nuclear Engineer for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, is a founder and President of Radiation, Science, & Health. He is also director of the Center for Nuclear Technology and Society at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, which is working to establish a level playing field for decisions on the costs and benefits of nuclear technologies that are essential to human prosperity in the 21st Century.

0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 04:23 pm
One paragraph in the preceding article stands out. Of course, Cyclops, who in his academic studies did extensive research in Social Science knows MORE about Nuclear Energy than Nuclear Energy experts.

quote

Note that, in this case, nuclear energy does not displace coal, oil, and gas. About 200% of current energy use would still have to come from fossil fuels and alternative sources. If oil and gas production cannot be maintained up to about 100 millions barrels per day, this would require an even greater commitment to nuclear energy, especially if nuclear energy is needed to extract oil from tar sands, oil shales, and coal.

*********************************************************

The Chinese and India know this, Cyclops. Why don't you?
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 04:33 pm
@Advocate,
Advocate is completly in error. He does not know that the left wing morons in Congress contradicted themselves over and over.

Advocate cannot deny these facts:

Mr. Rockerfeller, a left winger who was the Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence wrote on: Oc tober 2008--"If the White House documents exist that set the policyhe use of coercive techniques such as waterboarding, those documents have been KEPT FROM THE COMMITTEE."

Senator Rockerfeller's denial is flatly contradicted by his OWN REPORT issued on the subject last month which said--"On May 19, 20008, the Department of Justice and the CIA provied the Committee with access to all opinions and a number of other documents prepared by the office of legal counsel..concerning the legalikty of the C IA's detention and interrogation program. FIVE of these documents provided addressed the issue of waterboarding".

Rockerfeller and Pelosi are clearly liars!!!
0 Replies
 
Debra Law
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2009 04:50 pm
@Advocate,
Advocate wrote:

The right is still hitting Pelosi on the CIA torture issue. Please consider the following, which shows that the CIA misleading congress is nothing new.


I've also posted on this issue. There exist many, many examples from our history demonstrating that our secretive CIA has mislead Congress. The right's attempt to portray the CIA as the irreproachable "paragon of virtue" agency is absurd. It is obvious to all that the Bush/Cheney gang of criminals and their unethical proponents are trying to divert attention away from themselves by attacking Pelosi. They don't comprehend that these attacks make Pelosi all the more determined to shine a spotlight on all the skeletons they have hidden away in their closet. If their arrogant foolishness leads us to the truth and ultimately gets us to the point wherein we can scrub our government clean, then I'm in favor of their repeated attacks on Pelosi.
0 Replies
 
 

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