55
   

AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

 
 
genoves
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:15 pm
At this time, the Dow is down 223 points. Obama has proven to be FDR dejavu.

This downturn will last at least five years as it did during the time of FDR UNLESS Obama is defeated soundly in 2010 and not re-elected in 2012.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:18 pm
Just proves genoves knows absolutely nothing about how the markets work.
Ignorance and stupidity are his middle name.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:23 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

Cyclop, even you could not have carefully read the NY piece that you linked and failed to see how it does not only rebut my opinion on this, but actually reinforces it. You really don't understand those terms you asked me about earlier and then refused to define them or explain how they applied to this issue, can you.


Haha, I didn't refuse, I had to leave and go do something, which I clearly stated...

The NYT piece does not reinforce your case in the slightest. I don't think you even read it. It directly contradicts your case, specifically, that the government is to blame for any of this.

Perhaps you could cut and paste the parts which you think support your case? Once again, this should be trivially easy.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:27 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

Cyclop, even you could not have carefully read the NY piece that you linked and failed to see how it does not only rebut my opinion on this, but actually reinforces it. You really don't understand those terms you asked me about earlier and then refused to define them or explain how they applied to this issue, can you.


Waited too late to edit.

What I mean is that AIG could not have leveraged the schemes it was doing without abuse of the CRA by our government that created the housing bubble in the first place. The loopholes or opportunity for mischief within the CRA and the ultimate and inevitable abuse of its intent by government is what started the whole snowball rolling in the first place. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG et al all were initially beneficiaries of that and ultimately became both victim and villain in the mess. As did our EU trading partners.

The EU's own misguided banking practices--the same sort that the government used the CRA to justify implementing here--has escalated the snowball and it keeps getting bigger and rolling over more stuff.

And to the best of my knowledge, Congress has not offered nor enacted a single bill to correct any single problem that IT caused to create this whole mess.

(You'll find reference to the housing bubble in the first paragraph or two of the piece. My sources for explanation of the causes for that housing bubble are in all those pieces I posted and/or linked that you insist don't explain it.)
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:32 pm
@Foxfyre,
Quote:


What I mean is that AIG could not have leveraged the schemes it was doing without abuse of the CRA by our government that created the housing bubble in the first place.


This is simply, 100% untrue. Untrue. Why specifically was the CRA responsible for AIG's decision to leverage a bunch of crappy mortgages into AAA rated securities? You are missing critical steps in your explanations.

You do realize that housing bubbles happen irregardless of what the gov't does; and that the housing cycle has moved up and down many times? The CRA is not responsible for the housing crash in any way.

Quote:


The EU's own misguided banking practices--the same sort that the government used the CRA to justify implementing here--has escalated the snowball and it keeps getting bigger and rolling over more stuff.


Once again specifically untrue. You don't believe that these European banks were actually forced to invest in American mortgages, do you?

Cycloptichorn
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:36 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Again you can say it isn't true until the cows come home, but I have offered numerous informed opinions now for my opinion and shown the link between AIG's problems and that--a link supported by the piece YOU posted.

Until you can come up with something more than your own opinion to show me how I am wrong, I have to believe I have more support for why I am right than you have support for your assertion that I am wrong.

(And these silly straw men that you and CI are putting out there re somebody 'forcing' somebody as if that is pertinent is...well....silly.)
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:37 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo, You still don't "get it." The CRA forced every bank in the developed countries to invest in subprime mortgage instruments. It's all our government's fault, because of their heavy-handed control of all bank's CEOs and board of directors.
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:37 pm
Cyclops wrote:

Haha, I didn't refuse, I had to leave and go do something, which I clearly stated...

The NYT piece does not reinforce your case in the slightest. I don't think you even read it. It directly contradicts your case, specifically, that the government is to blame for any of this.

Perhaps you could cut and paste the parts which you think support your case? Once again, this should be trivially easy.
***********************************

He had to go do something--Check the Dow Jones, I assume, to see where Obama has put us --in the toilet.
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:38 pm
@Foxfyre,
He doesnt hae to come up with anything but his own opinion- Foxfyre- He is Cyclops- the king of the left wing hippies in the never never land of Berkeley.

You see, Foxfyre--all the Socialists and quasi-Communists there think alike--they are not used to viewpoints that do not match their redistributionist credo.
But, it is well known that leftist academic groups are envious of the people who run our capitalistic society. They would like to bring them down because they really think they are smarter than anyone else.

I am sure that my educational qualifications match anything that Cyclops has but I do not envy the CEO's. I cheer them on.
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:51 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

Re: Cycloptichorn (Post 3588047)
Again you can say it isn't true until the cows come home, but I have offered numerous informed opinions now for my opinion and shown the link between AIG's problems and that--a link supported by the piece YOU posted.

Until you can come up with something more than your own opinion to show me how I am wrong, I have to believe I have more support for why I am right than you have support for your assertion that I am wrong.

(And these silly straw men that you and CI are putting out there re somebody 'forcing' somebody as if that is pertinent is...well....silly.)

***************************************************************
He has no links, Foxfyre because he is too lazy to try to find evidence.

Your evidence trumps his hollow unsourced blah blah.
Foxfyre
 
  0  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 01:58 pm
@genoves,
Genoves, again, you sometimes come up with useful commentary or sources and would be much appreciated if you could just focus on that. And thanks for the intended moral support.

But you're sometimes as bad as they are in not sourcing your information and in spamming the thread with long difficult to read posts and/or personal insults of other members or just essentially calling others wrong or idiots without any basis to support your opinion about that.

I have worked hard at staying on topic and keeping ad hominem and personal insults to a minimum. Mostly I do not want anybody to perceive me as one of the juveniles, idiots, or numbnuts who debate in that manner. So please do not use my comments as the framework when you do that.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:05 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

Again you can say it isn't true until the cows come home, but I have offered numerous informed opinions now for my opinion and shown the link between AIG's problems and that--a link supported by the piece YOU posted.


No, you did not offer any information about the link between AIG's problems and the CRA. And now you refuse to write two or three simple sentences explaining it. It would have been easier to re-state your position than to write this post complaining about my request for you to do so.

Quote:
Until you can come up with something more than your own opinion to show me how I am wrong, I have to believe I have more support for why I am right than you have support for your assertion that I am wrong.

(And these silly straw men that you and CI are putting out there re somebody 'forcing' somebody as if that is pertinent is...well....silly.)



It was you and other Republicans who were arguing in this thread that the government 'forced' people to hand out loans to minorities and poor folks, and that's how the problem got started. But that's bullshit. It has nothing to do with how the problem got started. You backtracked on this argument once it became clear that you were confusing Banks with Investment houses and AIG.

In order to move forward, I will now re-state my position in a series of simple steps and ask you to do the same, instead of claiming that your position is clear. I am telling you right now that your position is not clear. I'd like to see it be clearly stated so that we can evaluate the truth of it.

Step 1 - in 1999, changes to the Glass-Steagal act allow for 'innovative investment vehicles' such as CDO's and Credit-Default swaps to come into common usage in the market.

Step 2 - companies such as AIG and investment houses start buying up mortgages - normally something they would never dream of doing - and using the new rules to attach AAA ratings to what would normally be considered crappy securities, b/c everyone knows that houses go up and down in value.

Step 3 - As it becomes clear that the Financial houses and some banks are making lots and lots of money off of this, and with the housing boom engineered by 0% interest rates after 9/11, hordes of Hedge fund managers and investment bankers flock to the CDO and credit-default swap market in an attempt to get in on the action.

Step 4 - these companies begin to leverage more and more of these purchases with guarantees against the survival of their own company; in many cases the purchases outweighed the number of actual assets 20 or 40 to 1. This made fantastic profits but engineered a very shaky situation, in which our entire financial sector was over-extended and relied on continued growth to keep even.

Step 5 - once the market started to decline, a perfectly natural thing for it to do, people wanted to get rid of the MBS and found they had a hard time doing so, as people had gotten worried about what they contained and what they were actually worth. When the housing market kept rising, nobody asked any questions, but when things looked bad, they started. So the liquidity of these assets dried up.

Step 6 - it quickly became apparent that our banks and financial houses were SO over-leveraged, that they owned FAR more of these MBS' than anything else, including assets to back up their obligations for yet more of them. In effect almost all of our financial companies were revealed to owe far more money than they possibly could pay, if forced to do so immediately.

Step 7 - the market seizes up, investors start to panic, AIG folds - badly - and the government steps in, and we are where we are today.

At no point was the government involved in a series of extremely poor decisions on the part of the companies in question. They saw a system they thought they could take advantage of, and did exactly that. Now, they are paying the price for their poor investments and so are we.

---

If you have an alternate, step-by-step explanation, please present it.

Cycloptichorn
Foxfyre
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:13 pm
It doesn't matter how long a post you write to say it Cyclop. It doesn't matter how many times you say I haven't made a case for my opinion. It doesn't matter how many times you beat that drum of denial. You still haven't presented a single thing other than your increasingly tiresome but now more wordy opinion to rebut the information I have presented.

If you want to say what 'we Republicans' have said that we didn't say. . . . Or if you want to believe the Democrat talking points or you just don't want to believe that anybody you ever voted for has done anything questionable or self serving or misguided or dishonest. . . .Or if you want to think that it is conservatism or capitalism that is the culprit that caused all our current woes. . . .that's your prerogative. I think I understand why you believe what you believe. But no matter why you believe it does not make it any more right in the face of so much information out there showing that a different point of view is far more accurate.

I have already posted my step by step opinion along with links to support it and I have rested my case. Rebut it if you can rather than continuing to ask me to keep restating it.
Foxfyre
 
  0  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:40 pm
@Foxfyre,
Here's a quick rebuttal to your list re AIG though:

Transcript from Public Radio:
Quote:
Scott Jagow: Shares of insurance company AIG are getting crushed. They're down 40 percent this morning. AIG is in trouble too, just like Lehman and Merrill Lynch. We're joined by our New York bureau chief Amy Scott. Amy, why is an insurance company tied up in this Wall Street mess?

Amy Scott: Right, well, Lehman, Merrill, Washington Mutual, AIG -- what all of these firms have in common is investments tied to risky mortgages. Now AIG is an insurer, but it sold contracts to protect bond investors against losses from subprime and other risky investments. And as those investments have lost value, AIG has lost a ton of money.

Jagow: So what is AIG going to do to try to save itself.

Scott: Well, you know, it's facing a potential downgrade by the major credit-rating agencies, which could be disastrous for the company. So AIG is working on a plan to raise money and sell some assets. The company is reportedly seeking help from the Federal Reserve, possibly in the form of a loan. It would be very unusual for an insurance company to get that kind of help from the Fed.

Jagow: Yeah.

Scott: But I think it says a lot about our complex financial system where arguably if AIG ran into trouble it could affect the whole system.

Jagow: And the Fed ,even though it backed off the Lehman situation, it isn't disappearing. The Fed is considering some more action. What is it up to right now.

Scott: Fed officials were working around the clock this weekend. They're taking some additional steps to calm the markets by saying that the Fed will accept a broader array of securities as collateral for its loans. Officials are also working with the global consortium of banks, which announced a $70 billion pool of money to lend to troubled institutions. And, of course, the Fed meets tomorrow to set interest rate policy. Now, analysts are expecting the committee to keep short-term rates steady at 2 percent, but in the face of this crisis on Wall Street, it is possible we might see another rate cut in the coming weeks.

Jagow: Wow. All right, Amy Scott in New York. Thank you, Amy.

Scott: Thanks, Scott.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/09/15/aig/
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:40 pm
@Advocate,
HOW'S THIS FOR A "SENILE OLD MORON"?
(links were posted multiple times in previous posts)

REAGAN
Unemployment decreased from 9.7% in 1982, to 5.6% in 1990.

Income tax rates decreased from 12% min and 50% max in 1982, to 15% min and 33% max in 1990.

Revenues increased from 617,766 million in 1982, to 1,032,094 million in 1990.

GDP increased from 2,789.5 billion in 1980, to 5,103.8 billion in 1988.
okie
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:41 pm
@ican711nm,
How moronic is somebody that calls Reagan a senile old moron, that is the appropriate question.

And Advocate thinks Obama will agree with supporting Israel and curtailing illegal immigration. How moronic is that?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:44 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo wrote:
Quote:
It was you and other Republicans who were arguing in this thread that the government 'forced' people to hand out loans to minorities and poor folks, and that's how the problem got started. But that's bullshit.


When they continue to contradict their own statements, it's useless trying to have an intelligent discussion.

They blame it on Mae and Mac and CRA, but have shown nothing to prove their points. Nobody is forced to loan money to anyone - not in the past, not now, and not in the future. Government can "encourage" some things, but they cannot "force" anything on private enterprise when it comes to giving out loans.

There are many government oversight departments such as the SEC to watch and ensure that financial systems are run honestly. They failed to do their jobs.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:49 pm
@okie,
Okie, on a scale of zero moronic to ten moronic, Advocate's statement that Reagan was "a senile old moron" scores at least a 9.9.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:51 pm
@ican711nm,
ican711nm wrote:

HOW'S THIS FOR A "SENILE OLD MORON"?
(links were posted multiple times in previous posts)

REAGAN
Unemployment decreased from 9.7% in 1982, to 5.6% in 1990.

Income tax rates decreased from 12% min and 50% max in 1982, to 15% min and 33% max in 1990.

Revenues increased from 617,766 million in 1982, to 1,032,094 million in 1990.

GDP increased from 2,789.5 billion in 1980, to 5,103.8 billion in 1988.



And this speaks for itself:

Quote:
59% Still Believe Government Is the Problem
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Rasmussen Reports

In early October, as the meltdown of the financial industry gained momentum following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, a Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 59% of U.S. voters agreed with Ronald Reagan that “government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”

Since then, the stock market has fallen roughly 3,000 points, millions of jobs have been lost, nearly a trillion dollars has been spent so far to bail out the financial industry, an additional $787-billion government stimulus package has been approved, and a new president has taken office who has proposed spending billions and billions more.

Despite all that, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows that the basic views of the American people have not change: 59% of voters still agree with Reagan’s inaugural address statement. Only 28% disagree, and 14% are not sure.

Middle-income voters are more likely to agree with Reagan than those who earn less than $20,000 or more than $100,000.

Political liberals strongly reject Reagan’s view by a 60% to 28% margin. Forty-seven percent (47%) of moderates agree, while 32% do not. Conservatives are overwhelmingly supportive.

Although the Republican Party in Washington veered away from Reagan’s approach in the years since the 40th president left office, 83% of Republican voters around the country still agree with him. So do 40% of Democrats and 60% of those not affiliated with either major party.

A majority of all voters say the Republican Party should return to the views and values of Reagan to be successful.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/59_still_believe_government_is_the_problem
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Mon 2 Mar, 2009 02:52 pm
@Foxfyre,
Fox, how can you say that this 'rebuts' the AIG point I made? It does nothing of the sort! It isn't even tangentially related to the conversation we're having!

Please explain exactly how it rebuts the mistakes AIG made.

from your other post -
Quote:


I have already posted my step by step opinion along with links to support it and I have rested my case. Rebut it if you can rather than continuing to ask me to keep restating it.


Oh really? Please link to this. Because I sure didn't see it.

Cycloptichorn
 

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