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AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

 
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 01:11 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
My "Europe bashing" isn't "reflexive". It is instead thoughtful and well-considered.

The observable fact that Medicare Medicaid and Tricare have ended up costing many multiples of the estimates offered when these programs were created is hardly a bromide: it is simply a fact. The difficulties the European countries are now facing in sustaining the financing of their social welfare systems and the public rage that appears to accompany any attempt to curtail cost growth tells us clearly that there is probably more to the cost picture than is generally acknowledged, and that this option is not without its challenges and adverse side effects. In the face of all that to blithely assert that this option is vastly simpler and cheaper because of some statistics devised by self-serving bureaucracies (that generally don't know the real cost of doing anything) is the real bromide here.

It is true: I don't want my taxes to go up. I believe that raising them will have adverse effects on our economic growth that could offset any revenue gains that might be realized by the government. You appear to assert that there will be no such effects, however you haven't offered anything but a bland assurance that this will be so.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 01:21 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

My "Europe bashing" isn't "reflexive". It is instead thoughtful and well-considered.


Laughing now, that is funny.
Quote:

The observable fact that Medicare Medicaid and Tricare have ended up costing many multiples of the estimates offered when these programs were created is hardly a bromide: it is simply a fact.


It's also a fact that these programs are still far cheaper than the private insurance system that most of us use. You never see fit to mention this, though.
Quote:

The difficulties the European countries are now facing in sustaining the financing of their social welfare systems and the public rage that appears to accompany any attempt to curtail cost growth tells us clearly that there is probably more to the cost picture than is generally acknowledged, and that this option is not without its challenges and adverse side effects.


The current difficulties they are experiencing have a lot more to do with the fact that their economies are in recession and tax receipts are way down, than they do with an explosion of cost - especially in terms of health care. Unless you have some evidence to the contrary? I haven't seen anything showing that France or Germany's HC costs are spiraling upwards, not anywhere close to those we have experienced in the last decade.

Quote:
In the face of all that to blithely assert that this option is vastly simpler and cheaper because of some statistics devised by self-serving bureaucracies (that generally don't know the real cost of doing anything) is the real bromide here.


You attempt to damn their statistics with yet another reflexive attack - this time on bureaucracies - but you have NO statistics to counter-offer. No data at all.

Their data is infinitely superior to your lack of data, and your attempts to casually wave away their conclusions are very, very weak sauce. Not convincing. If you want anyone to believe that their stats are incorrect, show us the proof.

Quote:
It is true: I don't want my taxes to go up. I believe that raising them will have adverse effects on our economic growth that could offset any revenue gains that might be realized by the government.


You don't have any evidence to support that position, however. You are just guessing that's what would happen, mostly because you feel that others like yourself would be pissed that their taxes were up, and would do.... what exactly? Just stop spending money? Stop investing? Stuff your money in your mattress?

Pull the other one, George. America has experienced fine levels of growth, in several different decades, with taxes that are significantly higher than we currently have. You've never been able to adequately explain this fact when you blithely assert that tax raises will lead to our doom.

Quote:
You appear to assert that there will be no such effects, however you haven't offered anything but a bland assurance that this will be so.


Well, historically this hasn't been the case, so why should anyone believe you? Can you point to a time when taxes were raised, yet revenues fell? And not over a one or two year period, but over a 5 or 10 year period. I'd be interested to see it - but I won't hold my breath.

Instead, I predict you will respond with more bland assurances yourself, that you are correct, with no proof to back it up. That's not an adequate answer to the question of why we shouldn't be raising marginal taxes.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 01:40 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:

My "Europe bashing" isn't "reflexive". It is instead thoughtful and well-considered.


Laughing now, that is funny.


My Europe bashing is not funny at all: I take it very seriously.

I have some experience with the unique world of government accounting, and have learned that government only very rarely knows the real cost of anything it does or buys. For example, private health insurers do their own fraud prevention and enforcement and its costs are reflected in their rates. This is not at all the case with Medicare, Medicaid or Tricare. Government agencies appropriately draw significant services from supporting agencies and their appropriated costs generally reflect only a fraction (sometimes small) of their real costs.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 01:44 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:

My "Europe bashing" isn't "reflexive". It is instead thoughtful and well-considered.


Laughing now, that is funny.


My Europe bashing is not funny at all: I take it very seriously.

I have some experience with the unique world of government accounting, and have learned that government only very rarely knows the real cost of anything it does or buys. Private health insurers do their own fraud prevention and enforcement and its costs are reflected in their rates. This is not at all the case with Medicare, Medicaid or Tricare. Government agencies appropriately draw significant services from supporting agencies and their appropriated costs generally reflect only a fraction (sometimes small) of their real costs.


Well, I still don't see you providing any actual proof or statistics to counter those given by these Europeans. At all. Are we really to go off of your assurances?

If you were in a decision-making position, would you simply go off of people's assurances when deciding which is the policy you would go with? Or would you want some sort of hard data? Be honest with us - you'd want more than what you present to us.

Regarding Medicare, getting rid of that program entirely and switching to a single-payer system for EVERYONE would provide a significant cost savings over what they currently CLAIM, let alone what the costs actually are. Which I believe, once again, you know is true. The argument from your side usually isn't that it would be cheaper but instead that the quality would suffer.

What about a German-style system - two tiers, non-profit entities for everyone on the bottom and for-profit entities for the rich? This isn't a black-and-white situation.

I will ask this again, because I think it's really important: Can you point to a time when taxes were raised, yet revenues fell? And not over a one or two year period, but over a 5 or 10 year period.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 01:54 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

I will ask this again, because I think it's really important: Can you point to a time when taxes were raised, yet revenues fell? And not over a one or two year period, but over a 5 or 10 year period.

Cycloptichorn

I' m willing to do some research, but only if we refine the question. The phrase " .. taxes were raised.. " permits multiple interpretations. Do you mean tax high end tax rates (without respect to deductions and various escape conditions) or the actual % of GDP collected by the government? A very good case can be made for the proposition that lower tax rates are often (not always) associated with increased government revenues.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 01:55 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
The difficulties the European countries are now facing in sustaining the financing of their social welfare systems and the public rage that appears to accompany any attempt to curtail cost growth tells us clearly that there is probably more to the cost picture than is generally acknowledged, and that this option is not without its challenges and adverse side effects.


You certainly are correct that there are difficulties.

But you perhaps don't know or don't want to know that the private insurers have the same if not more?
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 02:04 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I will ask this again, because I think it's really important: Can you point to a time when taxes were raised, yet revenues fell? And not over a one or two year period, but over a 5 or 10 year period.

Cycloptichorn

I' m willing to do some research, but only if we refine the question. The phrase " .. taxes were raised.. " permits multiple interpretations. Do you mean tax high end tax rates (without respect to deductions and various escape conditions) or the actual % of GDP collected by the government?


Raises in marginal tax rates. The actual % of GDP collected is too dependent on exterior factors not related to policy.

Quote:
A very good case can be made for the proposition that lower tax rates are often (not always) associated with increased government revenues.


I feel confident asserting that there is not a 'good case' there. I think you could show that lower marginal rates are not necessarily an inhibitor to increased government revenues; but they are not a cause of increased revenues and never have been. Which is unsurprising, because to claim that this is the case flies in the face of pretty much all economic logic. Claims to this effect are generally political in nature, sounding great to the masses while quietly derided as foolish by economists.

To start off - or maybe fend off - your research, here's Ramesh Ponnuru writing in the National Review on this subject (exactly this subject):

Quote:
Taxes and Revenues
October 17, 2007 6:03 P.M.
By Ramesh Ponnuru

Yesterday I noted that Bush’s tax cuts had caused revenue to be lower than it would otherwise have been. A number of people have emailed me saying that I’m wrong: Revenues have been growing fast, and are higher than they were before the tax cuts took effect.

That shows that the tax cuts were compatible with rising revenues, not that they caused them. The tax cuts may have boosted our economic growth, but we would have had some growth without them. So the question is whether tax cuts boosted growth so much that they ended up raising money.

I can’t think of any serious economist who thinks that happened
. The 2003 Economic Report of the President said that “[a]lthough the economy grows in response to tax reductions… it is unlikely to grow so much that lost tax revenue is completely recovered by the higher level of economic activity.” Bush’s own Treasury Department has disavowed the view that Bush’s tax cuts have raised revenue.Rob Portman and Ed Lazear, while serving in the Bush administration (as head of the OMB and the Council of Economic Advisers, respectively), said that the tax cuts had reduced federal revenue.

I’ll give the last word to Alan Viard, an economist who worked at the White House before joining AEI. Last year, the Washington Post quoted him: “Federal revenue is lower today than it would have been without the tax cuts. There’s really no dispute among economists about that.”


I think you'll find that cuts in the marginal tax rates don't stop growth of revenue, but they do reset the point at which revenue grows from, because there's a pretty big time period between the day the tax cuts go into affect, and the day that the magical faeries create new jobs and wealth based on the extra assets people have to invest - if this ever occurs. And I don't believe that ANYONE thinks keeping the current Bush tax rates will lead to a single additional job for anyone.

Not only that, I would point out that the idea that we need 'more investment' in business, or lower taxes on business, to create jobs right now is a farce. Corporations are sitting on boatloads of cash and profits have been very, very high this year and last year - despite the recession. They don't need further investment to create jobs, they need more demand to create jobs. You don't get more demand to create jobs by cutting taxes on the rich.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 02:13 pm
@mysteryman,
Your assumptions are wrong once again.

Killing Radical Muslim Extremists is well worth the money.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 02:14 pm
@mysteryman,
mysteryman wrote:

This said by a man that has obviously never been there.
Killing ANYONE is not worth any amount of money.

Yes, there are times when it is neccessary to kill in war, but that still doesnt mean that it isnt without cost.
There is a lot more then a monetary cost involved.
Killing someone always leaves a amrk on a persons psyche, and no amount of money will erase that.


I rarely say this, but don't even waste your time conversing with trolls such as this. There is nothing to gain from it, for the person in question has no real knowledge of what's going on in politics or economics, and instead just likes to spew as much hate as possible towards everyone.

Cycloptichorn
H2O MAN
 
  -3  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 02:24 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclotroll, you are probably the most hate filled, narrow minded individual on A2K.
You continuously spews liberal rhetoric and propaganda, you are clueless neanderthal.
realjohnboy
 
  4  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 02:28 pm
@H2O MAN,
Does that mean you are not going to wish Cyclo "Happy Holidays?"
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 02:31 pm
@mysteryman,
mysteryman wrote:



Yes, there are times when it is neccessary to kill in war, but that still doesnt mean that it isnt without cost.


We are at war and I don't recall anyone proposing a war without cost.

You obviously wish to skirt around the core issue of the enemy continuing their efforts to kill us.
Sitting back and allowing them to murder more Americans will only leave a mark on this countries psyche.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 02:32 pm
@realjohnboy,
Merry Christmas to all, even Cyclotroll!
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 03:08 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

You certainly are correct that there are difficulties.

But you perhaps don't know or don't want to know that the private insurers have the same if not more?


My point Walter was that government accounting is only rarely like the real thing. Governments do budgets, not accounting and they only rarely know the real cost of anything they do.

Health insurers face rising costs and either raise prices or exclusions in their coverage and deal with the result in a compoetitive marketplace in which their competitors face the same cost issues they face.

Governments must face the rage of a public grown accustomed to others to take care of them. AS we have seen the result often is public disorder that can threaten government itself. That and ordinary political opposition can lead governments to take unwise financial decisions; to roll over budget issues - or even cook the books as evidently was done in Greece; or simply to accumulate too much debt. Both Europe and America face some of these problems now.

0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 03:17 pm
@H2O MAN,
H2O MAN wrote:

Cyclotroll, you are probably the most hate filled, narrow minded individual on A2K.
You continuously spews liberal rhetoric and propaganda, you are clueless neanderthal.



Oh, I think he has many more adept competitors here for that characterization.

He is a committed liberal far too interested in elements of class warefare and far to little concerned with the preservation of the economic opportunity that has so long made this country the preferred destination of hard working folks bent on improving their lives. However he is not yet beyond hope.

Do you often characterize others this way?

H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 03:23 pm
@georgeob1,
I think Cyclotroll is beyond hope.
parados
 
  5  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 03:37 pm
@H2O MAN,
How's that HOPE thing working out for you squirt?
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 03:39 pm
@parados,
You'll never CHANGE, parasite.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Dec, 2010 03:59 pm
@H2O MAN,
CHANGE will happen squirt.
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