Lola at the Coffee House, Cafe 101

@High Seas,

Loverly girl

I have zero chance of avoiding future embarassment in this life. But it's very kind of you to try to help out. Hug.

1 Reply

@blatham,

Love you too. Read your e-mail, please, we had news of Maraso, he's OK. I replied and sent you a copy. Please also send me your street address, (I am now ron (dot) noname (at) yahoo, as you would know if you looked into your account .....77) I want to send something to Lola - the new Van Cleef et Arpels catalog. Tks!

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@High Seas,

I didn't get (or see) that email. Full name plus 77 (at) hot is the correct address. Could you resend and I'll watch for your new handle knocking at the door.

5723 N. Moore Ave, Portland
97217

Merry Christmas to you, gorgeous.

1 Reply

@blatham,

Aw, alright, I re-sent from my latest deep-cover e-mail account.

1 Reply

@High Seas,

found ya

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@blatham,

Blatham - is your Portland home near the ocean?

http://map.ngdc.noaa.gov/wmsconnector/com.esri.wms.Esrimap/dem?LAYERS=etopo1_ice%2Cocnames%2Cuscounties%2Curban%2Cadmin%2Cothercities%2Ccities%2Coneo%2Cplanned%2Ccompleted&FORMAT=png&SERVICE=WMS&VERSION=1.1.1&REQUEST=GetMap&STYLES=&EXCEPTIONS=application%2Fvnd.ogc.se_inimage&SRS=EPSG%3A4326&BBOX=-123.75,39.375,-118.125,45&WIDTH=256&HEIGHT=256

and

....and finally

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/events/ev020094318218.jpg

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@High Seas,

I bin there. Didn't see no ocean. A river, they got.

http://i29.photobucket.com/albums/c277/Tags1/IMG_3836.jpg

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@McTag,

Thanks, McTag. All the new satellites that went up since the last solar cycle low (it's an 11-year cycle, we're at a low now) are showing an almost complete cessation of sunspots and a corresponding weakening of our own planet's magnetic field. Because of the iron core of our planet, every time this has happened before, tectonic plates went on the move; here's an article excerpt >

Quote:

amazing correlations that have been shown to exist between different parts of the solar wind - magnetosphere - ionosphere - solid Earth system, in particular with respect to earthquake
activity. ...

Source is scientific database, public link may not be available, paper title is:

Quote:

ULF energy transfer in the solar wind - magnetosphere
- ionosphere - solid Earth system
R. Kessel, F. Freund, G. Duma
(1) Lab for Solar and Space Physics, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
20771 [[email protected], 301-286-1771 fax], (2) Department of Physics, San Jose
State University and Ecosystem Science and Technology, NASA Ames Research Center, MS
242-4, Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000, (3) Central Institute for Meteorology and
Geodynamics, Department of Geophysics, Hohe Warte 38, A-1190 Vienna, Austria

> and parts of Portland close to the coast may face giant waves soon following underwater seismic activity in the Pacific.

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@High Seas,

PS this satellite, launched 3 weeks ago, is expected to eventually provide more details:

Quote:

In the field of geophysics, GOCE's gradiometry promises a glimpse into the Earth's interior. This is expected to significantly enhance our understanding of the Earth's continental and oceanic crust.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Successful_Launch_For_GOCE_999.html

Anyone not already drowned in a tsunami or killed by falling roofs will get the details next year Smile

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I assume such giant waves will dissipate their energy on the Rocky Mountains and will not make it into our western approaches.

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@High Seas,

Well bugger me. How was I to know that's what you meant?

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@High Seas,

hi c's
About 80 miles inland. Modest mountain range between big water and me.

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@High Seas,

There's a coincidence. I hadn't read this post when I answered the earlier. My mention of the mountain range was just to give a sense of topography.

Hadn't known of this new data but was aware of the prior havoc resulting from the infrequent subduction zone events. When it happens, it won't be pretty. A surge will come up this river (as all rivers) but most of Portland sits fairly high. Seattle, Vancouver, Victoria, San Franciso and everything up and down the coast will get slaughtered. I can't think of a precedent that approaches in magnitude what's quite possible to happen.

1 Reply

Russians and Indians have been doing work on "solar cycles and seismicity" for years. The only data Im aware of (gleaned from my AGU 2007 notes) was that 'Max seismic cycles correlate with a T lag from the MAXIMUM solar cycle. (At 11 year cycle , the 2 year period post max is the most historically active seismic) However, modified by chandler wobble, precession, alignment of planets and gravity maxima, apparent polar wandering and magnetic reversals, seismic prediction is still not even close to being an exact technology.
There have been some advances in near time predictions (anything closer than 72 hours from a quake). These seismic and rad gas effusives can be an aid in predicting a quake that is maybe a day or two away. Even these predictions are in the 30% confidence range.

A lot of this predictive stuff is autocorrelation and is therefore suspect from the get go.

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@farmerman,

Here's an abstract of the article I mentioned. Read it before commenting on the authors' mathematics - and keep in mind that just because the system is very highly nonlinear doesn't mean you can't test for autocorrelation! Even idiot-proof Box-Jenkins will do.
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/01705/EGU06-J-01705.pdf

1 Reply

@High Seas,

ULF propogation has been an area of seismic study for number of years since the 1990's when it was determined that there was a relationship between several geoidal properties and ULF energy .I believe that USGS has had a series of projects that , while determining the real relationships, there still, AS far as Im aware, has not been a cause and effect relationship determined. The USGS had discovered that UL energy is most often propogated by the seismic events . Therefore, Ive seen mostly data that states it to be a following phenom, (post seismic event).
Im n ot a worker in this area so I only get to see pubs from SAGEEP and AGU.

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Tks, FM, mine was a general observation on mathematical modeling, not specific to ULF - I've no doubt you have much more background on seismology per se than I have even heard of existed! Certainly agree with you on impossibility of predicting timing of crustal motions.

Btw, since the new satellites measure gravity gradients (and calculate derivatives as proxies for stress) I saw at some point maximum stress in the lower 48 isn't along the West Coast but in the Mississippi Valley between St Louis and Jackson. I don't know why, presumably there's got to be a geological reason - will check again.

1 Reply

@High Seas,

PS OK, found it:

Quote:

....development of the Reelfoot Rift, which began about 600 million years ago as the forces that drive the motion of the Earth's plates began to tear the continent apart. Later, the rifting stopped and the area was buried by sediments that accumulated in a shallow inland sea that covered much of what is now North America. Now the North American Plate is pressing against the Pacific Plate, causing compressional forces to bear down on the central United States, which may be the cause of occasional earthquakes as the squeezed rocks periodically break apart.

http://igs.indiana.edu/Geology/earthquakes/eqinindiana/eq04.cfm

http://igs.indiana.edu/Geology/earthquakes/eqinindiana/fig6.jpg

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@blatham,

Bernie - not to worry, the new satellites should give ample warning of mid-Pacific seismic events several hours before the surge gets to where you are! If all else fails, read schedule posted by Kuvasz on new Grateful Dead concerts - and remember to only frequent people and dogs who make you laugh:

http://mtblog.newyorker.com/online/blogs/cartoonlounge/img990.jpg

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http://www.es.ucsc.edu/%7Eward/close_combo_small.jpg

http://www.citizenarcane.com/files/2005_Jan_04/la_palma.jpg

The scientific projection of a landslide caused by volcanic eruption at the La Palma volcano in the Canary Islands has been brought up again on the Science channel on their Naked Science series. In 2004 is became so over-hyped, it affected tourism. However, the danger is hundreds of years off and there would be sufficient warning to evacuate the islands. The landslide could generate a tsunami hundreds of feet high. But I think we can safely sip on our espressos in Lola's Coffeehouse for now.

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Lola at the Coffee House, Cafe 101

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