February 5, 2008: Super Duper Tuesday

Democrats:

Obama: Georgia
Clinton: Oklahoma

Republicans

McCain: Illinois
Romney: Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey
Huckabee: West Virginia

Correction:

Democrats:

Obama: Georgia
Clinton: Oklahoma

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey
Romney: Massachusetts
Huckabee: West Virginia

They've called IL for Obama and OK for Hillary, too. (We're talking about it on nimh's "Polls" thread...)

Polls are closed in NY, NJ, and CT, but no calls on the Democratic contests yet. Don't know if the results are slow or if the races are that tight. NPR is saying that NJ and CT are too close to call, which is quite surprising given the substantial leads in those states that Clinton had.

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey
Romney: Massachusetts
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas

NPR has a chart by state and party with the projections here:

http://www.npr.org/?pageDepth=2

They also have an interactive map here with a rollover on each state that links to the actual vote results.

http://www.npr.org/templates/topics/topic.php?topicId=1102#/primaries/

Excellent resource. Thanks, Butrflynet.

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware
Romney: Massachusetts
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware
Romney: Massachusetts
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware
Romney: Massachusetts
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama

surprises?

Romney winning only Massachusetts so far.

Connecticut, where Clinton had been leading comfortably in the polls, is still too close to call. New Jersey has just been called for Clinton, but there again she had, at one time, a commanding lead in the polls. On the Republican side, the McCain caucus voters' "switcheroo" in West Virginia would have been shocking if it had occurred in a state that anyone really cared about.

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Kansas
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York
Romney: Massachusetts
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Kansas, Utah
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, Oklahoma
Romney: Massachusetts, Utah
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama

Romney won Utah? go figure...

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Kansas, Utah, Minnesota, North Dakota, Connecticut
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, Oklahoma, Arizona
Romney: Massachusetts, Utah
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Kansas, Utah, Minnesota, North Dakota, Connecticut, Colorado
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, Oklahoma, Arizona
Romney: Massachusetts, Utah, North Dakota
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia

Democrats

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Kansas, Utah, Minnesota, North Dakota, Connecticut, Colorado, Idaho
Clinton: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, California
Not called: Missouri, New Mexico, Alaska

Republicans

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, Oklahoma, Arizona, Missouri, California
Romney: Massachusetts, Utah, North Dakota, Montana
Huckabee: West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia
Not called: Alaska

Some final observations:

Democrats: Everything depends on how the media portray the results. If they focus on California, it will look like a Clinton victory. If they focus on the seemingly insurmountable leads in the polls that Clinton had and lost in the days between the South Carolina primary and Super Duper Tuesday, then Obama will be declared the victor.

Obama is going to claim some sort of victory tonight, based upon those dashed expectations and his ineffable "momentum." He still trails in delegates, however, and because of the Democratic practice of awarding delegates on a proportional basis, he will need to win the remaining contests by margins greater than 60-40 in order to catch up. Clinton will need to figure out how to stem the slippage in the polls that saw her dropping from the prohibitive favorite in this race.

Both Clinton and Obama will make a big deal about their abilities to win in "red" states -- Clinton in the mid-south and Arizona, Obama in the upper midwest and the deep south. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that a Democrat will always win in the Democratic primary, no matter where the election is held. Winning "blue" state primaries, therefore, is more important in the overall picture, and Clinton did a better job of that than Obama tonight.

Republicans: After winning some big winner-take-all contests, like New York, McCain is now the kind of lead-pipe cinch frontrunner that Hillary Clinton thought she'd be at this point in the race. Huckabee's return from the dead was little more than a tryout for the role of running-mate on McCain's ticket.

Romney had a far-from-impressive win in Massachusetts and some unimportant caucus victories in the upper midwest and west. He has, at least, spent his millions far more productively than John Connelly or Phil Gramm did when they ran for the GOP nomination, but the result appears to be roughly the same. Romney won the talk radio primary, but he never was able to connect with real voters and convince them to support him.