February 5, 2008: Super Duper Tuesday

Actually, does anyone have a 'where the race stands' for Republicans?

I suppose it's a good thing that almost all the focus is on the Dems, but it's still a wide-open race there.

Cycloptichorn

Demos for next Democratic primaries

Washington Post
Behind the Numbers

As attention turns to South Carolina and beyond, here are some sex, race and age breakdowns from 2004 contests (where available from NEP exit polls). Percentages listed are the size of each group in the state's Democratic primary in 2004 (e.g., 57 percent of all Democratic voters in South Carolina four years ago were women, 47 percent were African American)...

Code:
Jan. 26
Women White Black Latino 18-29 65+

S.C. 57 51 47 1 9 20


Jan. 29
Women White Black Latino 18-29 65+

Fla. 55 69 21 9 6 35


Feb. 5
Women White Black Latino 18-29 65+

Ariz. 59 72 2 17 7 33
Calif. 53 68 8 16 11 22
Conn. 53 89 7 2 5 27
Del. 57 79 16 2 9 23
Ga. 56 49 47 3 11 19
Mass. 54 90 5 3 9 26
Mo. 52 82 15 1 9 24
N.Y. 57 65 20 11 8 26
Okla. 53 82 8 2 6 30
Tenn. 54 74 23 1 7 23


Feb. 9
Women White Black Latino 18-29 65+

La. 54 48 46 5 7 23


Feb. 12
Women White Black Latino 18-29 65+

Md. 58 58 35 3 8 22
Va. 56 63 33 2 8 23




By Jon Cohen | January 22, 2008; 11:18 AM ET

Obama, however, is taking a more piecemeal approach. Because votes in most Democratic contests are awarded proportionally, he will need to make precision strikes within states where Clinton is strong. Cities with many blacks, like New York, and liberal enclaves, like the San Francisco Bay Area, are on his list of targets, as are independents in New Jersey and California.

He is looking for a rout in his delegate-rich home state of Illinois. But he is also courting voters in six states caucusing on Feb. 5 - Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, Alaska, North Dakota, and Idaho - where an aggressive turnout drive could reprise his success in Iowa.

"In many of these states, our opponents are not engaged in any organizing," Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, blogged earlier this month. "We firmly believe you cannot build a caucus operation in a matter of four weeks, so we are at a decided advantage."

If Obama captures traditionally "red" heartland states on Feb. 5, he will no doubt argue that they reflect his ability to unite voters across the ideological spectrum against a Republican foe in November.

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