georgeob1 wrote:
Well their post war plans for the Baltic countries, Poland, Czechosolvakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria were well-organized and in place long before the end of WWII. The Soviets financed a civil war in Greece immediately after the war and the Communist parties of Italy & France (which were significant political forces until the late 1950s). They loudly proclaimed their intent to organize, finance, and support "Wars of National Revolution" (their phrase) in Third World nations from South Asia to Africa and Central America - as well as the eventual triumph of world socialism over the capitalist states of the West. They armed and backed the invasion of South Korea by the retrograde regime in the North. ---- And all of this was done without any provocation by the United States.
My statement was that I'm not sure they would have attempted to project power to the same extent that they did without their fear of the US.
You've changed my wording significantly so I'm going to get back to what I actually
did say and go from there. Are you arguing that the events you reference occurred before the Soviets had reason to fear the US as a rival? If so you are demonstratably wrong as Kennan's telegram was sent immediately after a speech by Lenin about the potential for conflict between the capitalists and their encroachment on the Soviet Union and in Kennan's own telegram he cites Russian fear of the West (primarily the US, of course) as exacerbating what he saw as a traditionally xenophobic Russian culture.
Here's a direct quote from Kennan's "Long Telegram":
Kennan wrote:
At bottom of Kremlin's neurotic view of world affairs is traditional and instinctive Russian sense of insecurity. Originally, this was insecurity of a peaceful agricultural people trying to live on vast exposed plain in neighborhood of fierce nomadic peoples. To this was added, as Russia came into contact with economically advanced West, fear of more competent, more powerful, more highly organized societies in that area.
You can also see the rivalry develop as early as 1927 in this Lenin speech:
Lenin wrote:
In course of further development of international revolution there will emerge two centers of world significance: a socialist center, drawing to itself the countries which tend toward socialism, and a capitalist center, drawing to itself the countries that incline toward capitalism. Battle between these two centers for command of world economy will decide fate of capitalism and of communism in entire world
In short, you changed my wording to argue Soviet expansionist intent prior to US "provocation" but what I'd actually said was that it was motivated by "fear" of the US as a rival and that I'm not sure that in the absence of this foil it would have existed.
That this fear was a motivation for them was accepted as a central part of US policy so if I'm as wrong as you claim so are the original proponents of the Containment of Communism that you are defending.
Quote:
You may well never know if you are right -- precisely because it is very easy to show that you are certainly wrong.
That's a clever turn of phrase. However, I don't think you can justifiably be
certain about the what ifs as you appear to be. Are you certain, that without their fear of the US as a rival they would have "[attempted] to project power to the same extent that they did?" If so I think you may put too much faith in your crystal ball.
Beyond my concern about the appropriate strength of one's convictions in their own accuracy in predicting the hypothetical you have not established Soviet expansionist intent prior to the emergence of their fear of the US as their rival at all.
