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The US Economy

 
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 09:32 am
Despite the sophistry of some seemingly erudite commentary of the amateur economists on these threads, the economy is going to do what it's going to do and no amount of alchemy is going to change it. The government is going to eventually need money and corporate profits are not going to fill the tax gap. Despite the claims the politicians make that they are protecting your money, they are only protecting the money of the wealthiest contributors.
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 09:51 am
That's 'shadetree economist' to you, Wizard. :wink:
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 12:18 pm
LW, I "KNOW" I'm an "amateur economists," but I've outperformed many high-paid experts on the performance of our retirement investments for the past three years. That "tells" me more than I need to know. c.i.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 12:47 pm
Here's another joke by a member of this administration. Treasury Secretary's quote today, ""I'm confident that this recovery will translate into job creation." What's missing you say? Well, when is this "job creation" supposed to happen? And the most important, no numbers.
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 02:23 pm
PDiddie wrote:
As we all know, there was nearly no change in unemployment figures in December. The manufacturing and retail sectors are still shedding jobs, and those people who had jobs worked fewer hours.

As we all know December is a month with a couple of things going on that make it not like other months of the year. It's a holiday month for most Americans AND it's the end of the calendar year. Both of these facts have an impact on jobs numbers and have an impact EVERY YEAR, good economy or bad.

PD tells us in part that as we all know "those people who had jobs worked fewer hours". Like lots of people, I worked fewer hours in December BECAUSE THERE WERE TWO HOLIDAYS AND I ALSO TOOK TIME OFF TO TRAVEL TO VISIT FAMILY OUT OF STATE. Now, you might argue that I am an exception, but "as we all know" that would be silly. Of course workers worked fewer hours in December, but does that mean what PD seems to think it means? (He doesn't actually tell us what he thinks it means, though it's clear he thinks it is bad news.)

The problem is that as we all know there can be many reasons for flat job growth. Flat job growth at the end of the year is not unusual, neither is it odd for workers to work fewer hours around our major holidays. I doubt that many people would take this information as a sign of trouble in the economy, unless those people want to make the case that the economy is not improving. (But who on Earth would want that, right?)
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 02:28 pm
then why did the dept of labor estimate 150,000 new jobs for december and realize only 1000 new jobs?
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 02:32 pm
They'd just read "The Power of Positive Fibbing"?
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 02:49 pm
You guys still listen to government prognostications? What for, may I ask?
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Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 02:52 pm
On the contrary, retail normally hires on a lot of sales consultants from the middle of November to the end of January bringing employment figures in higher each year for that period. Didn't happen. From the service I got a stores, even though I did most of my shopping on line, the service was exceptionally poor. How many sales do these brick-and-mortar stores lose because of screwy judgements to increase their sales by giving poorer service? The only reason for going to a brick-and-mortar retailer is to get good face-to-face assistance in a purchase. Don't make me laugh.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 03:00 pm
LW, I also did both internet and in-store shopping, and found that both lacked the sales staff to do anything close to a good job. I ordered a Sony LCD tv on line which they promised would be shipped within 24 hours on December 17. After one week, and no response after several emails, I told them to cancel my order. I finally ordered another LCD tv which I received on December 31. The shops during the christmas season was a mad-house. Lines were so long, I was discouraged to buy anything even on sale. I bought my wife a gift certificate at Macys.
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Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sun 11 Jan, 2004 05:20 pm
I did have good experiences online -- I ordered a Panasonic DMR from a computer sales site and it was here within ten days. The stores were even difficult to get service in on slow days. They are drastically understaffed. It's still a matter of over a year before we will know the economy is headed towards recovery. It is true that online sales was up this year but obviously that's mainly due to price -- the sites hope to make up in volume what they lose in profit margin. Many more brick-and-mortar stores have set up online sites and whether it is profitable or not remains to be seen. Only Amazon has shown an encouraging growth in online retail sales. I bought many things from Chefs.com because of the very low price and it is owned by...Neiman Marcus (normally referred to around here as Needless Markup).
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2004 12:01 am
Snow's recent quote, "The new space proposals will not undermine Bush's goal of cutting the federal deficit in half within five years, Treasury Secretary John Snow said Sunday." I wonder where he got his education in economics?
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Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2004 09:18 am
They're blowing off a lot of hot wind. It's hard to tell if Bush is attempting to emulate Reagan or Kennedy. He's not close to being either.
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fishin
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2004 10:41 am
Scrat wrote:
PD tells us in part that as we all know "those people who had jobs worked fewer hours". Like lots of people, I worked fewer hours in December BECAUSE THERE WERE TWO HOLIDAYS AND I ALSO TOOK TIME OFF TO TRAVEL TO VISIT FAMILY OUT OF STATE. Now, you might argue that I am an exception, but "as we all know" that would be silly. Of course workers worked fewer hours in December, but does that mean what PD seems to think it means? (He doesn't actually tell us what he thinks it means, though it's clear he thinks it is bad news.)


Scrat - IMO you're barking up the wrong tree on this item. Labor numbers are "seasonlly adjusted" which accounts for things like the extended holiday season and people taking vacation time. Paid vacation tim ealso counts as hours worked so unless people took more unpaid vacation time people like you who took time off, don't effect the numbers.
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Mon 12 Jan, 2004 11:16 pm
fishin' wrote:
Scrat wrote:
PD tells us in part that as we all know "those people who had jobs worked fewer hours". Like lots of people, I worked fewer hours in December BECAUSE THERE WERE TWO HOLIDAYS AND I ALSO TOOK TIME OFF TO TRAVEL TO VISIT FAMILY OUT OF STATE. Now, you might argue that I am an exception, but "as we all know" that would be silly. Of course workers worked fewer hours in December, but does that mean what PD seems to think it means? (He doesn't actually tell us what he thinks it means, though it's clear he thinks it is bad news.)


Scrat - IMO you're barking up the wrong tree on this item. Labor numbers are "seasonlly adjusted" which accounts for things like the extended holiday season and people taking vacation time. Paid vacation tim ealso counts as hours worked so unless people took more unpaid vacation time people like you who took time off, don't effect the numbers.

Well, I'll take your word for it that I was out to lunch on this one, but man it sure sounded good to me when I wrote it. Shocked
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Jan, 2004 06:50 am
Quote:
...More recently, Rubin has been concerned with future deficits rather than historical ones. A variety of economic forecasters, including those at Rubin's old firm, Goldman Sachs, predict the federal government will run a deficit of more than $5 trillion over the next decade. The weak economy and increased defense spending explain part of the deficit. But the lion's share, roughly $3 trillion, Rubin said, is associated with President Bush's tax cuts.

In an academic paper just published, Rubin and two well-known economists make the case that the looming deficits are a prescription for disaster.

"The scale of the nation's projected budgetary imbalances is now so large that the risks of severe adverse consequences must be taken seriously," the three authors wrote.
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2004/01/13/rubin_deficits_a_threat/
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Jan, 2004 08:45 am
US interest in Venezuela would have aboslutely nothing to do with oil ...
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1520&ncid=1520&e=6&u=/afp/20040110/pl_afp/us_venezuela_rice_040110220449
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 03:43 pm
Quote:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/16878
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Jan, 2004 09:12 pm
The Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show that the post-WWII-to-present unemployment rate has AVERAGED 5.66%. That does not square with assertions of "Unemployment Crisis" at all. Also shown is that 847,000 more people were employed as of December '03 than were employed as of December 2000, a clear repudiation of assertions of "Net Job Loss". That is not opinion, it is documented, verifiable, legally admissable, evidentiary fact.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jan, 2004 01:33 am
timberlandko wrote:
Also shown is that 847,000 more people were employed as of December '03 than were employed as of December 2000, a clear repudiation of assertions of "Net Job Loss". That is not opinion, it is documented, verifiable, legally admissable, evidentiary fact.


Would be nice, if you could show the "documented, verifiable, legally admissable, evidentiary" numbers of US-population for all persons, able to work, for that time as well to compare it :wink:
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