Wow ... this thread grows ... a couple days of inattention to the computer, and I come back to an hour's worth of catch-up reading
Well, The Turkish Stock Market is crashing as predicted in the event of a US-Negative vote, and there are rumblings of a "reconsideration", though that's complicated by the upcoming Turkish elections, and I would have to think next week would be too late. Washington has not yet slammed the door, but further delay is problematic. A choice will have to be made very shortly. There will be repercussions one way or the other, and there seems to be no upside for Turkey. She's made a choice, and may have cut herself out of the game. Turkish interests in Iraq, particularly concerning The Kurds, and any Turkish role in the reconstruction of Iraq, have been dealt a killing blow if Turkey remains adamant. New avenues leading to improved US/Iran relations may have opened. Interesting times, interesting times.
Without Turkish Bases, Airmobile Operations through the North are still possible (and likely), but the lack of heavy infantry and of armor will hinder plans to rapidly take the Northern Cities. The Turkish vote has complicated, and increased the time required to complete, the US campaign. On the upside for The US, long term weather forecasts indicate tolerable climatic conditions could extend well into April, possibly even early May, but that's iffy at best, and in any event, the hot weather is coming soon, and there really is a finite window of practicality for an attack. There likely also will be intense "Third Party" fighting between Turkish troops already in Northern Iraq and Iraqi Kurds, with the Iranians thrown in as a wild card. The prospect of US action supporting Iraqi Kurds against Turkish units is absolutely real. The North has potential to become very interesting.
On a side note, the events in Pakistan over the weekend are a major development in the campaign against Al Queda, and could well generate significant further arrests in the near future. Some computers, discs, and paper documentation were siezed, as well as several cell phones ... lots of data to mine, a real "Win" for Intelligence.
There are some troubling elements to the capture of Shaik Mohammed; he was in the house of a Pakistani government fuctionary (though the minor fuctionary's involvement seems to extend no further than offering dwelling space to his son, a Islamist religious figure, who in turn provided sanctuary to Shaik Mohammed), and the house was more or less across the street from Army Headquarters. Also bothersome is the impression the bulk of the apprehensions of major Taliban and Al-Queda figures occur in Pakistan. That in itself has troubling implication. I would like to know more about the still somewhat mysterious third individual arrested.
There are renewed Arab calls for Saddam to step down, though no official unified statement. Kim Jong-Il has announced willingness to provide sanctuary, though Iraq's official position remains that exile is out of the wuestion. All that is certain is that major developments will transpire over the next few days, likely none of which reduce tensions a bit.
Some quarter of a million armed "Inspectors" are about to vigorously pursue and swiftly conclude the matter of ensuring Iraqi disarmamment.
BTW, I think I'd go for the sour mash myself.
timber
