Iraqi Opposition "Split" on US Postwar Plans
Quote:Rift Emerges Among Iraqi Opposition
Wed Feb 12, 5:46 PM ET
By BORZOU DARAGAHI, Associated Press Writer
SULAYMANIYAH, Iraq - The United States has told Iraq's opposition it plans to install a U.S.-military-run administration and keep many lower level officials of Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s party in their jobs after the Iraqi leadership falls, senior opposition officials said.
This shouldn't take much more than a generation or so. Maybe less.
<sigh>
timber
And another one, Timberlandko -- from tomorrow's Christian Science Monitor:
Second Iraq battle: 'morning after'
By Philip Smucker | Special to The Christian Science Monitor
DAMASCUS, SYRIA - Do not expect to see Islamic warriors mounted on camels, turbans flowing in the wind, charging across the Arabian desert to defend Baghdad.
More likely, say Western military analysts, a slow, stealthy infiltration of extremist groups could wreak havoc on US, British, and allied armies during and after a coalition invasion of Iraq. Thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of jihadis - holy warriors - will view US and British forces in Iraq as prime targets, say these analysts. They say coalition forces could wind up fighting two campaigns: one to disarm Saddam Hussein and the other to maintain security afterward - putting down skirmishes between tribal factions while defending against possible terrorist attacks. In a new audiocassette released on Tuesday, a voice believed by US officials to be that of Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden calls on Muslims around the Arab world to take up just such stealthy, guerrilla tactics against "infidels" on Arabian sands. "True Muslims should act, incite, and mobilize...." the tape said. "We advise about the importance of drawing the enemy into long, close, and exhausting fighting, taking advantage of camouflaged positions in plains, farms, mountains, and cities." Western military analysts warn that while Iraq is today a mostly "secular" Islamic regime run by Mr. Hussein's ruling Baath Party, Western armies are likely to act as magnet that would draw Al Qaeda across porous borders into Iraq. "There is a real possibility that an occupation of this nature will suck in all sorts of jihadis from all over," says Charles Heyman, editor of Jane's World Armies in London. "A Western occupation almost certainly invites them in from Saudi Arabia and other countries where they are currently ensconced." Abu Omar, an Iraqi businessman here, says that he was pleased to see Mr. bin Laden, a personal hero, taking an interest in Iraq. But he said that he also wanted to see Hussein removed from power, albeit not with the help of the US military. "Osama had hit the Americans one time in a very big way, when he attacked the World Trade Center," he says. "That was much more than any Arab leader has ever done, and for this reason we love him. But this war will involve the Iraqi people fighting the US and, while Osama will try to inspire his members to fight with them, I don't expect Al Qaeda to be a major factor." Syrian computer technician Imad Sakkal agrees that there is little love lost between Hussein and bin Laden, but he praises bin Laden for sacrificing a life of luxury to fight for Islam in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan. "Even if he and his people die fighting the Americans, they will be martyrs." Few leading Western military analysts doubt any US-led invasion of Iraq will end in the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's undemocratic regime. It is the "morning after" that raises red-flag security issues, they say. In the "new Iraq," say analysts, Shiite Muslims in the east and south of the country, and Kurds in the north, are likely to seek quick revenge against the Baath Party, thus precipitating the need for coalition troops to stop the ethnic strife even as the tortuous heat of an Arabian summer closes in... ..."As more terrorist groups emerge around Baghdad, it will become considerably harder to keep the peace," says Alexandra Ashborne, director of Ashborne-Beaver Associates, a defense-analysis institute in London. "There will be so much instability on the borders. I think Iran could pose the most danger. There will be a threat both from Al Qaeda and other groups that have yet to emerge. There could be kidnapping, hostage taking, and bomb threats." Indeed, terrorists veiled as Bedouins trekking through the desert is one likely scenario. Few of the region's nomadic Bedouin tribesmen bother going through border checkpoints, and with Iraq's 3,500 miles of border, mostly with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria, it will not be possible to keep up a constant guard at all crossing points, analysts warn.....
A grab by Iran is not to be unexpected ... I've mentioned that a couple times. Turkey could become a bit rambunctious too, and they're awful close to the Northern Oilfields. This is going to be a very simple war and a most difficult peace, I suspect.
timber.
5 years, 3 months, and a handful of days spent in the US Navy, all during peace time. Did a stint of shore duty down under and the remainder on a surface ship.
Blair hedges [from CNN]: "U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq "can have as much time as they need" if Iraq is cooperating, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said."
Fed: Don't Hack Iraq
Quote:Feds Warn 'Patriot' Against Hack Attacks
15 minutes ago Add Technology - AP to My Yahoo!
By DAVID PACE, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - Real patriots don't hack. Uncle Sam says only he can do that.
I would imagine Uncle Fed has his own ideas of what Iraqi Browsers should display, and when they should display it.
timber
I'm not so sure about this whole boondoggle. I wouldn't count on a clean war with just a few dead people, and the occupation of Iraq is going to get messy from the very beginning when the Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis fight for the piece of the pie. Interesting to see the Iranians and Turks in the picture too! This gungho mentality that it's going to be a short war is dumb and dumber. c.i.
roger wrote:You go where they send you.
Really? After 18 month (draft) in the Navy, they thought, my future to be in the mobile/alarm reserve. Which actually would have been some 4 weeks exercise in the icy Baltic Sea during winter every year.
Since I knew, where my unit(s) were to go the followings years - I just asked for my exercises in summer, Scotland, France, Denmark, "Kiel week"... ...
Timber,
I believe its generally known that a covert operation hamstrung the CCC computers during the Gulf War. I expect even better results this time.
Mid-East Embassy "Non-Essentials" told to evacuate
The Two-Week Warning has been sounded, I think. Things are gathering momentum. The actual closing of embassies likely will be indicative of at most a week of remaining "Peace".
timber
timber, More than a week to go. I think we still have a couple weeks. c.i.
Well, if the State Department is having meetings, then I don't think there will be any problem at all in post-war Iraq.
Tartarin, this from your post from the CSM:
Quote:....Abu Omar, an Iraqi businessman here, says that he was pleased to see Mr. bin Laden, a personal hero, taking an interest in Iraq. But he said that he also wanted to see Hussein removed from power, albeit not with the help of the US military. "Osama had hit the Americans one time in a very big way, when he attacked the World Trade Center," he says. "That was much more than any Arab leader has ever done, and for this reason we love him. But this war will involve the Iraqi people fighting the US and, while Osama will try to inspire his members to fight with them........
We will make Baghdad a hot bed, and a cynosure of Middle Eastern terrorist eyes. It will become the target. It will become another Jerusalem, with daily suicide bombings. Why are our leaders so blind to that?
Aren't arguments pro and con the war just an exercise in futility by now? Seems whoever "gets there firstest with the mostest" will carry the day.
edgar, old Nathan Bedford Forrest had no concept of how "Firstest" we can "Git thar" with how much "Mostest". If this does come to a shootin' war, the "Gee Whiz" factor is gonna be eye-popping. Though it seems ever more improbable, I still hope Saddam "just goes away" before the missiles fly. I'm more and more convinced we're looking at somewhere right around the New Moon, the night of Mar 2/3, though weather could bump that a day or two either way. Saddam has to be thinking the same thing, unless he has drawn too much confidence from the wrangling being done at The UN and in the Western Media. This could well be a case in which the Anti-War crowd guarantees the start of a war.
timber
George
For Rumsfeld to come over here and publicly berate Schroeder and Chirac for their stance on Iraq, dismissing their countries (France and Germany for goodness sakes!) as irrelevant to the new Europe, was deeply deeply offensive. And as a good European and Brit, I was duly offended!
Kara
Re: The forecast of doom and gloom in that CSM article---remember the bold prediction of Saddam prior to the first Gulf War-----THIS WILL BE THE MOTHER OF ALL BATTLES-----this turned into the ----mother of all wishful thinking on his part. The Arabs are very good at boasting, posturing and sneak attacks----little else of substance.
A good example was bin Laden's boast that his band of rag-tag cutthroats was going to evict Saddam from Kuwait----of course he could publicly make this boast after we actually evicted them.
Another good example of Muslim boasting----The Taliban boasted of filling body bags with Americans----those same cowards ran for the border of Pakistan when the action started.
Saddam's reference to "the mother of all battles" was understood in the muslim world, but not in the west. It does not refer to the biggest of battles--rather, it refers to the rebellion against the Caliph Ali, son-in-law of Mohammed, and claimed as their founder by the Shiites. "Mother of all battles" refers to the beginning of fratricidal strife between Sunnis and Shiites. In the context of the United States as a continuing target of muslim terrorists, Saddam's prediction was "right on." Whether or not the "band of rag-tag cutthroats" are cowards matters little--those who flew airliners into the World Trade Center and the Petagon had sufficient courage to hurt us significantly. The mother of all of our woes probably goes back well before the first Gulf War, but the metaphor is valid.
