perception,
A "Last Minute Backdown" on Saddam's part is not impossible, but I doubt any more will come of "The Saudi Initiative" than came of their similar ploy immediately prior to Gulf War I. The Saudis are desperate to avoid war; they fear the "Afghanization" of Iraq, domestic instabillity, and expanded regional Islamist activity, apart from a major lessening of her rank in the list of Petroleum Exporting Nations irrespective of who is exporting Iraq's oil. The Saudis, in fact might even try to muddy things up to delay onset and hinder prosecution of hostilities; they might prefer risking a little "Instability" under their direction aimed at American security and diplomatic issues in US-Supporting neighbor states to widespread instability not only uncontrolled by, but directed against them.
I imagine Saddam, though a coward, possibly crazy enough to perceive greater advantage from martyrdom than from exile. I do not consider that probable. I beleive he is gambling on buying the few weeks needed to put any US/UN action into the summer. I do not believe he will be successful in this. The current Military Presence in the region cannot be held there in readiness for any appreciable length of time. I also believe Saddam, though perhaps having a contingeny escape plan, he may well miscalculate the timing of th4e expiration of his options. A US-led attack, likely with broader international support than currently may be expected within the next very few weeks. I suspect in Mid-February Iraq will be given "Sternest Final Warning" tied to a clearly proscribed deadline. If Saddam allows that deadline to pass without stepping aside, his first indication that his time has run out may be in the nature of a smart bomb coming through his office window. I expect Saddam to draw encouragement from Anti-War Sentiment, and will wage a vigorous propaganda campaign. Should he become convinced war is inevitable and imminent he might attempt to vanish, or he might attempt to sabotage his own petroleum infrastructure and to unleash environmental havoc on the waters of The Gulf.
A cornered critter is unpredictable ... the sooner you deal with it, the less damage overall is likely to result. Saddam may intend to choose "Flight", but may well squander his opportunity to avoid "Fight".
I fear indeed that will be the case.
timber
cicerone imposter wrote:It seems the only country that favors a US war with Iraq is Kuwait. I wonder why? c.i.
France, Russia, Germany, Belgium, and Greece are the key holdouts, c.i., and both France and Russia are seemingly less and less committed to the staunch Anti-War stance. The majority of Nato Partners and soon-to-be Nato Partners have lined up with The War Crowd. International support for war increases, and particularly in the event of an affirmative Second Resolution, such resistance as may remain essentially will evaporate.
timber
Timber
Very lucid analysis----but you know what I really fear----is that he will launch all 16,000 of those rockets( that the inspectors can't find) at all the oil wells just as we are about to secure them. And of course they will be filled with all that sarin, mustard and ricin that the inspectors can't find. Then he will explode charges at each oil well and hope to escape in the turmoil that will cause. That is my worst nightmare.
timber, I'm not talking only about the government, but of the citizens of Kawait. In the countries you listed, most of the people are against the war. Only the government may be changing their tunes, but with careful wordings to leave the future open for any option. c.i.
perc, Anything is possible with Saddam. That's the reason why for the first time in our history, the military will consider the cremation of our dead before sending them home. c.i.
timber, very interesting analysis.
anent nothing above...I wonder if our attack, which seems inevitable now, will come during the dark of the moon.
blatham
I do hope, some of my friends in the UK will give me shelter.
Powell Fails To Change German Opposition On Iraq
Walter, "Containment" for now is the best policy. I really think that GWBush and company have not figured out the end game after the war is won. The occupation of Iraq is not the same as Germany or Japan. It's going to resemble more like Afghanistan where they continue to battle with the different war lords and Al Qaeda. What kind of government for Iraq? For how long? At what cost? Will terrorism against American interests increase? I think so. c.i.
Kara, the Dark of the Moon would be March 2nd
I'm sure, like most here, that war will start soon.
I completely agree, what is intodays Independent argument:
"We fervently hope that if it comes, it will be short, and that the morale of the Iraqi military is in tatters. We hope that Saddam will not, in desperation, use the chemical and biological weapons that he probably does possess. We hope that the UN continues to be engaged as much as possible, in order to dilute the perception that this is a war of the Christian West against Islam. We hope that the reconstruction of Iraq will not be seen in Arab countries as American imperialism."
Leading article/Independent
And I do sincerely hope that at some other "facts" are more proven that the those of the UK government:
British 'intelligence' lifted from academic articles
Walter, That is downright scary; that the heads of government would lie to the world to support their own positions. There are so many negatives to the prospect of a preemptive attack on Iraq, why can't they see it for their face value? The world is crying "PEACE!" c.i.
Great fear of looming disaster is what I think of daily-
with every report I see
and in the most varied of
media sources I generally come across.
I have not felt this badly since the first few weeks following 911. The worst part is that once this horrendous 'action' commences, I doubt sincerely that there will be less terrorist actions. I believe it will only escalate to unparalleled levels that even science fiction writers have not envisioned. Sorry to be Ms. Gloom here, but it is so terribly oppressive, this foreboding.
If any are interested, I will post links to blogs that deal primarily with "global news", "online journalism" and "global politics". My theory is that blogs will be the most immediate resources for those who want to get immediate and also broad reports. The blogs are so fast, there is little ability to block information from spreading or for any censoring, as websites are subject to. Any comment here in this thread or a PM is fine to let me know if there is interest. I'd post them in the ongoing blog threads.
(read last post by cobalt Friday middle-of-the-night) What's a Blog...
Not sure if this has been posted before - apologies if it has:
It is an article on a so-called British Intelligence paper supporting war with Iraq:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,890916,00.html
Walter and dlowan
Yes, I saw the Guardian story this morning too. Yet this gives me some hope. Presently, I'm a bit short of cash and it looks increasingly possible that one of the crack intelligence agents working out of Downing Street or the West Wing will pick up an analysis of mine and attribute it as a personal diary entry of Sadaam (or bastard-child revolutionary Fidel Fonda) and that'll handle rent next month.
cobalt
I am jealous of your avatar.
Walter, in our god fearing plutocra . . . uhm, democracy, we are not the type to just suddenly attack the Germans in a fit of pique. We would need advance approval from Daimler-Chrysler . . .
Oh dear..........black LOL.
