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New roll-out (propaganda campaign) for war with Iran?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:27 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
mysteryman wrote:
But less then half of our armed forces are in Iraq.
We have almost 2 million people in the military,and less then 250,000 are serving in or have served in Iraq and Afghanistan.


Only a third of the regular army's brigades now qualify as combat-ready.

Officers educated at West Point are leaving at a rate not seen in 30 years, with the consequence that the US army has a shortfall of 3,000 commissioned officers

And the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have led to the destruction, or wearing out, of 40 per cent of the US army's equipment, totalling at a recent count $212bn.


I suspect these are "facts" pulled out of the air Walter. Worse, you have failed to provide any context for them, and done so in a manner that significantly distorts reality.

The normal operations cycle deployment - rest - retraining & refitting of all units in the Armed Forces is designed to yield a fully combad ready rate for units of about 40%. I don't know where your 1/3rd figurte came from, but it isn't far off normal.

Heavy deployment schedules and combat operations usually do result in higher rates of resignations after the initial tour of obligated service. This is particularly true in the Army which is experiencing rates of overseas assignments that are roughly comparable to what (say) our Navy experienced for 40 or so years during the Cold War. However, the rise is neither unprecedented nor crippling. The Army can sustain it.

The operational lifetime of most military equipment is about 15 years - even for material in a reserve status. In the five years of these conflicts (more if you consider the Army overseas deployments during the interregnum following the Gulf War), an attrition of about 1/3rd of the equipment is about normal. The levels of material needing overhaul or replacement is indeed somewhat high, but nothing near what is inferred in your statement.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:32 am
I admit that I don't have any official source for my data - you certainly just forgot your source as well, George.

It has been reported that way in several papers - I only can refind one which will be damned when only wospreing the name ... The Observer ... but better a source than none.


Ooops - West Point even seems worse than I quoted above (according to their own data).
But you didn't question that.
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:36 am
Interesting george. You accuse Walter of pulling facts out of the air and then provide no source for your stats.

I guess we should simply apply the same standard and assume your figures are pulled out of the air.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:40 am
As you will note from my post, my chief complaint wasn't particularly about the identity or lack of a source for your data, but rather the complete absence of any context in which to make the data meaningful.
A reference to the normal values of the statistics themselves is a necessary element in any attempt to convincingly demonstrate the existence of abnormal conditions in anything.

You plucked material of uncertain accuracy out of sources unknown and offered it as a direct measure of abnormality, and did so without any context or reference at all to the normal values of those "facts".

That is deceptive.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:46 am
I guess we shouldn't believe what the military tells Congress or the press..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/04/AR2006120401347.html

Quote:
Helicopters are flying two or three times their planned usage rates. Tank crews are driving more than 4,000 miles a year -- five times the normal rate. Truck fleets that convoy supplies down Iraq's bomb-laden roads are running at six times the planned mileage, according to Army data.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13563055/

Quote:
The annual cost of replacing, repairing and upgrading Army equipment in Iraq and Afghanistan is expected to more than triple next year to more than $17 billion, according to Army documents obtained by the Associated Press.


I guess tripling the cost of repairs WOULD put in in context. Don't you agree george?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:48 am
Shame on me.

I might consider to join the next International Military Pilgrimage to Lourdes to do penance for that.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:49 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Shame on me.

I might consider to join the next International Military Pilgrimage to Lourdes to do penance for that.


ROFL
0 Replies
 
squinney
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 10:50 am
Geeze! The suggestion from the original post is that we are getting ready to hit with another propoganda campaign to "sell" us on war with Iran. Whether or not our military is ready for such doesn't matter.

The question should be are WE ready to be sold?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 11:03 am
parados wrote:
I guess we shouldn't believe what the military tells Congress or the press..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/04/AR2006120401347.html

Quote:
Helicopters are flying two or three times their planned usage rates. Tank crews are driving more than 4,000 miles a year -- five times the normal rate. Truck fleets that convoy supplies down Iraq's bomb-laden roads are running at six times the planned mileage, according to Army data.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13563055/

Quote:
The annual cost of replacing, repairing and upgrading Army equipment in Iraq and Afghanistan is expected to more than triple next year to more than $17 billion, according to Army documents obtained by the Associated Press.


I guess tripling the cost of repairs WOULD put in in context. Don't you agree george?


You should take a deep breath and jump down off your high horse.

Of course the useage of equipment has increased markedly, and of course the cost of the backlog of needed overhaul of used equipment is much increased. However, these are not particularly significant elements of the overall cost of maintaining the military establishment. Used or unused, equipment is replaced at the rates inferred in my post above.

We have experienced all this before, and in fact have already begun to address the backlog in tank, vehicle and helicopter overhauls, which are the main elements of the problem. In the big scheme of things this isn't a difficult or time-consuming issue.
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 11:29 am
I see you have decided to repeat your unsupported claim as if it has some merit while claiming I am on a high horse. You are the one that came riding in on your hobby horse to attack Walter for not supporting his claims while not providing any evidence for yours. Now you want to accuse me of being high and mighty for actually providing sources.

You might want to read the entire articles before you claim the equipment isn't being replaced at a faster rate george.

Quote:
One of the growing costs is the replacement of Humvees, which are wearing out more quickly because of the added armor they are carrying to protect soldiers from roadside bombs.
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 12:33 pm
May I remind all of you that the figures for mileage for taks for instance,was used when the main worry the US had was the Soviet Union puoring through the Fulda Gap.

Those are all cold war numbers,and do not neccessarily reflect actual abilities of vehicles.

The military always builds a "fudge factor" into their estimates of vehicle usage ,
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 01:06 pm
just came across a lenghty but very interesting article in the ARMED FORCES JOURNAL .
i don't know anything about the journal , but certainly don't think it's a LIBERAL mouthpiece .

the way i understand the writer , he seems to blame the U.S. generals - excepting general shinseki - for not standing up to president bush and making him - and the defence department under secretary rumsfeld - fully aware of what troopstrength was required to win iraq .

so before getting involved in another war , the serving generals perhaps better speak up FORCEFULLY rather than just "giving the good news" that the president would like to hear .

you may want to read the whole article ; well worth your while .
hbg

ANY COMMENTS ?


Quote:
A failure in generalship
By Lt. Col. Paul Yingling

"You officers amuse yourselves with God knows what buffooneries and never dream in the least of serious service. This is a source of stupidity which would become most dangerous in case of a serious conflict."
- Frederick the Great



Quote:
Having spent a decade preparing to fight the wrong war, America's generals then miscalculated both the means and ways necessary to succeed in Iraq. The most fundamental military miscalculation in Iraq has been the failure to commit sufficient forces to provide security to Iraq's population. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) estimated in its 1998 war plan that 380,000 troops would be necessary for an invasion of Iraq. Using operations in Bosnia and Kosovo as a model for predicting troop requirements, one Army study estimated a need for 470,000 troops. Alone among America's generals, Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki publicly stated that "several hundred thousand soldiers" would be necessary to stabilize post-Saddam Iraq. Prior to the war, President Bush promised to give field commanders everything necessary for victory. Privately, many senior general officers both active and retired expressed serious misgivings about the insufficiency of forces for Iraq. These leaders would later express their concerns in tell-all books such as "Fiasco" and "Cobra II." However, when the U.S. went to war in Iraq with less than half the strength required to win, these leaders did not make their objections public.


Given the lack of troop strength, not even the most brilliant general could have devised the ways necessary to stabilize post-Saddam Iraq. However, inept planning for postwar Iraq took the crisis caused by a lack of troops and quickly transformed it into a debacle.

In 1997, the U.S. Central Command exercise "Desert Crossing" demonstrated that many postwar stabilization tasks would fall to the military. The other branches of the U.S. government lacked sufficient capability to do such work on the scale required in Iraq. Despite these results, CENTCOM accepted the assumption that the State Department would administer postwar Iraq. The military never explained to the president the magnitude of the challenges inherent in stabilizing postwar Iraq.


After failing to visualize the conditions of combat in Iraq, America's generals failed to adapt to the demands of counterinsurgency. Counterinsurgency theory prescribes providing continuous security to the population. However, for most of the war American forces in Iraq have been concentrated on large forward-operating bases, isolated from the Iraqi people and focused on capturing or killing insurgents. Counterinsurgency theory requires strengthening the capability of host-nation institutions to provide security and other essential services to the population. America's generals treated efforts to create transition teams to develop local security forces and provincial reconstruction teams to improve essential services as afterthoughts, never providing the quantity or quality of personnel necessary for success.



After going into Iraq with too few troops and no coherent plan for postwar stabilization, America's general officer corps did not accurately portray the intensity of the insurgency to the American public.

The Iraq Study Group concluded that "there is significant underreporting of the violence in Iraq." The ISG noted that "on one day in July 2006 there were 93 attacks or significant acts of violence reported. Yet a careful review of the reports for that single day brought to light 1,100 acts of violence.

Good policy is difficult to make when information is systematically collected in a way that minimizes its discrepancy with policy goals."


Population security is the most important measure of effectiveness in counterinsurgency.
(i have stated more than once that after WW II the allied forces did their utmost to provide security for the population of germany .
and they did so successfully !!! hbg)


For more than three years, America's generals continued to insist that the U.S. was making progress in Iraq. However, for Iraqi civilians, each year from 2003 onward was more deadly than the one preceding it. For reasons that are not yet clear, America's general officer corps underestimated the strength of the enemy, overestimated the capabilities of Iraq's government and security forces and failed to provide Congress with an accurate assessment of security conditions in Iraq. Moreover, America's generals have not explained clearly the larger strategic risks of committing so large a portion of the nation's deployable land power to a single theater of operations.

The intellectual and moral failures common to America's general officer corps in Vietnam and Iraq constitute a crisis in American generalship. Any explanation that fixes culpability on individuals is insufficient. No one leader, civilian or military, caused failure in Vietnam or Iraq. Different military and civilian leaders in the two conflicts produced similar results. In both conflicts, the general officer corps designed to advise policymakers, prepare forces and conduct operations failed to perform its intended functions. To understand how the U.S. could face defeat at the hands of a weaker insurgent enemy for the second time in a generation, we must look at the structural influences that produce our general officer corps.




see for complete article :
ARMED FORCES JOURNAL
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 02:10 pm
Quote:
This is so Lord of the Flies. Where are the adults?


I object to that facile remark. Any fool can say a thing like that.

What was not adult in pointing out the ridiculousness of c.i.'s "stretched to the eyeballs" statement? Your nation, and ours, is nowhere near geared up for an offensive as it might have to be in conflict with a nation, or group of nations, which is so geared up.

What I presume c.i. meant was stretched to the eyeballs just enough for the average American not to notice except when he reads such a thing. Which is not the same as "stretched to the eyeballs" without qualification.

Gas rationing, the draft and massive production drives for war material instead of restaurant fripperies and in-car entertainment is getting somewhere near "stretched to the eyeballs".

The easiest way to justify avoiding such sacrifices is to "appease" the other side.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 02:12 pm
hbg, What pisses me off more is the simple fact that the generals failed to train and equip the soldiers properly for this war from the very beginning. They are all incompetents in my book. They are only looking out for themselves, because generals make names for themselves only during wartime.
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spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 02:23 pm
If that is true, which I doubt, you had better do something about it or you will be selected out according to Darwinian principles.

You might try not living by assertions for a start. Us too.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 02:25 pm
spendi, Your doubts are the least of my concerns.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 04:07 pm
I note certain similarities of style in the posts of foofie and my old friend spendi. If no one minds, I will simply refer to either/both of them from now on as...

Spoofie wrote:
Quote:
What I presume c.i. meant was stretched to the eyeballs just enough for the average American not to notice except when he reads such a thing. Which is not the same as "stretched to the eyeballs" without qualification.


Indeed. And starvation could be ameliorated if only all the families in the world agreed to setting aside one half of their offspring for processing as foodstuffs. The present political realities in the US make CI's claim a more truthful accounting of real states of affairs than your stretch over to another sort of accounting.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 04:27 pm
george

On a recent visit with dyslexia and dianne in New Mexico, dys and I talked about you. We talked about you a fair bit. And, I must say, we had a considerable amount of fun in all that talking.

Now, both dys and myself, being good liberals, tend towards generous inclusiveness in our affinities. We have room in our hearts for most everyone, even a republican, so long as she isn't a naked tattooed Mormon with a cattle prod.

We noted that you'd recently confessed to a diet of crow. It takes, of course, a lot of crow to make a decent meal and thomas informs that you aren't about to be catwalking Brooks Brothers suits, at least presently.

Bon appetite!
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 04:49 pm
This war in Iraq is like no other; the dust can be tough on engines and aircrafts, so it's essentially a foot-soldiers war. Humvees get blown up all the time by IEDs, and the enemy looks like the citizens of Iraq.

I wouldn't want to send my family or best friends to that war zone; it's hell on earth - especially in the summer heat.

That the members of congress and Bushie can visit the war zone for a day in air conditioned vehicles is not the same - while they're protected by umpteen military. When McCain came home and said Baghdad was "safe," we knew he wasn't in the middle of the war.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Sep, 2007 05:36 pm
Bernie is obviously comfortably situated and sees it all as a vehicle for the exercise of his acuity, virtuousness and command of the English language.
0 Replies
 
 

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