NOAA Scientists Say Arctic Ice Is Melting Faster Than Expected
By Doug Struck
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 7, 2007; A06
The Arctic ice cap is melting faster than scientists had expected and will shrink 40 percent by 2050 in most regions, with grim consequences for polar bears, walruses and other marine animals, according to government researchers.
The Arctic sea ice will retreat hundreds of miles farther from the coast of Alaska in the summer, the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded. That will open up vast waters for fishermen and give easier access to new areas for oil and gas exploration. It is also likely to mean an upheaval in species, bringing new predators to warmer waters and endangering those that depend on ice.
The study, by NOAA oceanographer James Overland and meteorologist Muyin Wang, adds to the increasingly urgent predictions of major ice loss in the Arctic. Six years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted major ice loss by 2100. An update by that United Nations-sponsored panel in February said that without drastic changes in greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic sea ice will "almost entirely" disappear by the end of the century.
But Overland's calculations are based largely on the carbon dioxide that already has been pumped into the atmosphere. That pollution will greatly diminish the ice by 2050, regardless of future curbs on emissions, he said yesterday.
"The amount of emissions we have already put out in the last 20 years will stay around for 40 to 50 years," Overland said. "I'm afraid to say that a lot of impacts we will see in the next 30 to 40 years are pretty much already established."
Overland and Wang compared 20 climate change computer models with satellite observations of Arctic ice cover. They discarded models that did not accurately track the ice cover for 20 years in the past and extended the accurate models to predict the ice melt by 2050. The research will be published tomorrow in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
"The rate of ice loss now is faster than what was depicted," Overland said. "This moves the threshold up."
The two researchers also narrowed their focus to specific parts of the Arctic. Because of wind and water currents, the sea ice off Canada's northeast coast in Baffin Bay will change little, Overland said, but in most other regions, including Alaska's Bering Sea, it will shrink dramatically.
"This will have a profound effect on the animals that use sea ice all the time, including walrus and polar bears and ringed seals," he said. "You will actually have a change in the whole ecosystem. You will have winners and losers. Crabs, clams, walrus and bears will not do well. Salmon, pollock and other fisheries that live higher up in the water column will extend their range."
"We really don't have a clue how that will look," Overland said of the species changes. Pollock already moving into the Bering Sea were expected to thrive, for example, but there has been an unexpected loss in species on which the fish feed and an unexpected increase in predator species, he said.
Ice in Alaska's Bering Sea has shrunk significantly this decade, in large part because of an unusual wind blowing warm air toward the Arctic, Overland said. But that natural effect is aggravated by global warming, which is heating Arctic areas more quickly than more southerly regions.
"There is a whole lot of uncertainty about what will happen next," he said. "Are we approaching a tipping point where we have lost so much ice already that, when the winds change, we have already gone too far?"
Ginger tea is very good, ul......
Thanks for the info Sumac.....
clicked
sue, I agree.
It is unfortunate that independent news journalism has declined replaced with coporate monopolies.
Appears the Bees are in need of union representation and the earth an exceptionally good lawyer.
GM crops tested by the corporations that patent the food you purchase - say they've conducted safety tests, but none of the data is available for the eyes of citizens that purchase genetically altered substances. That and the fact, biotect companies hold gm seed patents. Monsanto spent billions of dollars to defeat bills that were ultimately enacted to law banning gm crops in the three largest farming counties of California.
You don't have a choice of what products carry gm substances because the food packages arn't labled. If the foods so damned safe, then why spend billions of dollars to keep consumers from knowing what the hell they're ingesting?
Animals don't have a choice of what foods they eat. Especially farmed animals. Viruses arn't news. Confined feeding operations are not only unhealthy for animals, but for humans as well.
"Letter to the editors of bee journals"
Joe Rowland
Commercial Beekeeper
Secretary/Treasurer of the Empire State (New York) Honey Producers Association
October 2000
AFB - GM crop connection possible
http://www.biotech-info.net/bee_j_editorial.html
You and your 300 friends have supported 2,801,041.4 square feet!
~~~
1 64.303 acres
So close, and yet so far away.
93 out of 100 NC counties now at the highest level of drought - extreme - and tropical storm won't come inland. Sigh.
thattbe 'biotec'...
Sue, very sad news for the planets wildlife, even without climate change.
Yup. There is a great deal to be said about bin Laden's comments about the bad role of corporations.
enBeth
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/06/AR2007090600807.html
Going to Duke Friday night to hear them perform "Awakening". Subscribed to a four-concert series entitled "Premier Performers" from Duke Performances. There are two other classical series I could subscribe to, but that would get very expensive.
www.dukeperformances.org. Check it out. One of the big reasons I wanted to get out of the boonies and come to a good, big city.
Lucky! I love the Kronos Quartet. That promises to be an amazing performance.
hey, everyone, I, and MA have clicked today.....
That's one more tree folks......
Also, anyone interested in journalism as it stands today should see =
http://www.publicintegrity.org/default.aspx
You may sign up for their free info.....
They also send news letters - if you're interested........
Happy hunting - - -
Good morning Wildclickers - except, of course ul and Walter -
They have now completed lunch.
All clicked.
sue, I don't find the 'coincidence' odd when Laden appears and voila - george and his corporations thrive via congressional war funding.
Republicans should send Osama and the Taliban at least a portion of the billions of corporate campaign funding from the videos recent 2008 'election' boost. God knows Laden needs a new wardrobe.
Dan, neither ethically nor logically do corporations have a legitimate role in the democratic process.
Laws were enacted that protect most gross polluters from prosecution and federal monitoring. The Superfunds been practically depleted for years - giving most communities little or no recourse from the courts. Federal monitoring was the norm for cases against corporations, but with the new 'deferred prosecution agreement' very few criminal cases see the inside of a courtroom. A good example is the adminstrations policy that allows corporate factory farms deferrment from poisoning ground water. The corporations monitors toxins then sends a report to the EPA.
The fox guarding the henhouse.
Dan, now even dinner is over here. For dessert some more copybooks to correct. (Low in calories :wink:)
Kronos Quartet - wonderful. I like their open minds in music.
Stradee- did you find out what caused the problems in your paradise?
aktbird57 - You and your 300 friends have supported 2,801,509.7 square feet!
~~~
It rained in the morning, I napped in the afternoon, we took the dogs to the beach in the early evening after a quick stop at the ice cream joint. Nice day.
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1 64.313 acres
Canadian Maple Syrup, smoked salmon, books and lots of pictures-- my son came back today. It is good to see him.
Again rain tonight.
Ul, no fair, in any of those areas.
