Pentagon plans: Gambling on terror

Pentagon plans online terror bets

By Paul Reynolds
BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

The Pentagon is planning to set up an online trading market in which bets could be made about future terrorist attacks and other major political developments.

The idea is to try to improve the prediction and prevention of events by using the expertise of the open market instead of relying on government agencies which have often failed in the past.

One example used on the website set up for the programme is the possible overthrow of King Abdullah of Jordan.
But the plan has already run into fierce opposition in the US Congress.

Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, both Democrats, have written to the Pentagon urging it to abandon the idea.

"The idea of a federal betting parlour on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," said Senator Wyden.

Senator Dorgan said that it was "useless, offensive and unbelievably stupid". He said he had trouble in persuading other people that it was not a hoax.

"How would you feel if you were the King of Jordan and you learned that the US Defence Department was taking bets on your being overthrown within a year?" he asked.


complete article at the BBC website

In a statement, agency officials defended the market, which opens Sept. 1 - 10 days before the second anniversary of the terror attack on America.

Such markets offer efficient, effective and timely methods for collecting "dispersed and even hidden information," the agency said. "Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions."

Registration for the Web site, www.policyanalysismarket.org, begins Friday.