reverend hellh0und wrote:Cycloptichorn wrote:I think that if we committed 2 million troops, maybe we could succeed. Other than that, no. We cannot 'win' in Iraq without resorting to the widespread killing of civilians who are not willing to give up the terrorists and insurgents who live amongst them to an Occupying Western force.
Not 500k?
No, not 500k. It wouldn't be enough. We need to not only majorly tamp down on sectarian and AQ violence, but also to close the borders to a greater degree. 500k wouldn't even come close to the amount we need.
I would say that we could draw these troops from other countries around the world, but thanks to Bush's ham-fisted attempts at diplomacy, we have no credit with anyone else any longer.
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Look at it this way. The population of Iraq is, minus the dead and fled, roughly 20 million or so. If just 5% of that population is against stability, that represents a million people who would fight against either the US or the other sectarians, who would protect them, support them, hide them, and so on. We are greatly outnumbered even with conservative estimates of the situation.
That would be true but its nowhere near 5%. at 5% there would be a lot more dead.
You have no authoritative basis to say that its' 'nowhere near 5%.' Remember that they are playing a waiting game that they
are going to win. It costs them nothing to stay there and us, a ton.
This is classic military strategy, yo. Our supply lines and costs are huge, theirs are short and small. Not hard to see who has a huge advantage in that situation. Also, much of what gives us a huge advantage - our technological superiority - is not particularly useful for fighting insurgents running a guerrilla war.
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SO yes, at our current force levels, we will be unable to 'win' any sort of lasting peace in Iraq. They can, and will, simply wait us out. It isn't as if it is free for us to stay there, in terms of either blood or money...
Cycloptichorn
So instead of increasing troop levels you support abandoning the Iraqis and let them fend for themselves? What do you think will happen?
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Yes, I do support doing exactly that.
What will happen is whatever the Iraqi people decide to make happen. This is what will happen whether or not we leave or stay.
Cycloptichorn