Use of Uniformed Military as Political Props?

Let us say that the probably outcome of our leaving = instability and civil war in Iraq.

The question is, will our staying there change this outcome in any way? I haven't seen any persuasive evidence that it will, not without the US staying in the region for 10-20 years. The sectarian rift between the people of Iraq and the surrounding regions goes back 5 times further than our country has even been in existence. It is interesting to imagine that these problems will be wrapped up and hunky-dory in any sort of timeframe which we can reasonably plan for, and I'm not sure where the thought that this is even possible comes from.

The reason the probable outcomes are the same is twofold:

First, we aren't capable of settling the place down through force - not without the wholesale slaughter of innocents in the name of getting the bad guys. Every piece of evidence over the last few years has shown this to be true.

Second, the crew who could have settled things down by politics is inept at politics, by which I mean of course the Bush administration and the State department. After the war with Saddam's forces ended, the people who were selected to rebuild Iraq were almost exclusively young, connected Bush supporters with zero experience doing what they were trying to do. And they failed, spectacularly. Now state can't get anyone to go replace them, and who can blame the State employees? Noone wants to get killed in a country which we are going to abandon sooner or later.

Let us put it this way - given the incredibly delicate nature of the situation, and the group who is running things, I haven't seen any evidence that any of the things which need to get done to win this war will be done. Our PR is a disaster, politically we are supporting fundamentalist SHiites to run the new government, the IA is a joke. Turkey is thinking about invading the Kurds before the Kurds invade them. And we have the whole Iran issue as well. What indication is there that things are going anything but horribly?

Actually, Ash, it doesn't matter to me if I can convince you or not. We are going to pull the troops out anyways whether or not people like Bush or yourself can be convinced or not. The time for listening to those who have acted with such idiocy - Bush - and those who blindly support him - yourself - is long gone. I have serious doubts that Bush will even last to the end of his term, at the rate flies are dropping from his administration.

I have consistently maintained from day 1 that the Bush admin would not survive subpoena power. I am being shown to be right at the moment. The Dems have been in power for only 3 months and already they are getting things they want: big names are going down in the administration. Showdown over the executive power grabs of Bush. The Iraq is being defunded. Another 6 months and Bush will be lucky merely to be neutered, if he still has his job.

Remember, I told you it's the Republican senators who will stab you in the back, Ash, in the end. They face reelection and are far less confident in Bush- and his pattern of mistake after mistake - than you seem to be.

Cycloptichorn

You've redefined the probable outcome of withdrawal from Iraq/Southwest Asia from the long-term big picture I fear to a short term and limited part of the larger effort. A withdrawal dictated by Democratic partisan politics has far reaching consequences that will result in a more dangerous world where the US will be less able to effectively defend our national interests. I do not believe that working to establish a stable and effective secular, democratic government in Iraq is wrong, nor is it doomed to failure ... if we don't cut and run.

You seem to believe that the problems in Iraq and the region are insolvable, and that we should just accept domination of this important region by Radical Islamic State dictatorships. On the other hand, I believe that people everywhere share essentially the same desire for liberty from political and religious oppression. People want self determination, justice and opportunity to better things for themselves and their families. I still believe that most Iraqi's truly want a stable, effective secular democracy, but that violence and discord against that government is led, fomented and supplied by a minority, the RIM.

Your second point only reflects your own personal and unreasoning hatred of anyone who doesn't agree with you. You seem to disparage the efforts of many Americans who have at great personal sacrifice labored to bring a better life to the people of Iraq. It's probably true that many of those who've worked to rebuild and reconstitute that nation haven't much experience at working under the constant threat of kidnapping, assassination, sabotage, and being beheaded on television. Who in our world has that sort of experience, and could do any better job of it? Though you didn't mention it, its also true that money has been improperly spent and fraudulently siphoned off by the vultures who are always awaiting an opportunity to raid the treasure during times of chaos when proper accounting is difficult. In the end, however all of that is irrelevant to the question of what outcomes we might expect from a precipitate withdrawal dictated, not by the military, but by Congress playing soldier.

As Leftist and Democratic Party rhetoric has swelled and undermined popular support for our efforts, Iran and other regional organizations feel they can push even harder toward their own agendas. What is the evidence that the Turks and Kurds are both contemplating invasion? Far more likely is an invasion from Iran in support of the Shia who seem to have been taking a disproportionate beating from the Suni elements who would like to go back to the Saddam days. Even though Iran is responsible for keeping the violence in Iraq going by supplying military munitions, money and expertise, they can't just move in so long as US forces are on the ground. We leave, and Iran gobbles up Iraq.

Certainly things could have gone better, but withdrawal is, I believe, only going to make things go far worse and much closer to home. The efforts and finely focused efforts of the mob to attack and bring down this lame duck administration is ample demonstration that they place partisan advantage above the needs and security of the nation. If you lot are successful in your madness, God help America because we are sure going to need it.

The Senate version passed by a thin margin, 2 or 3 votes in a chamber almost evenly divided. I suppose a Republican Senator, maybe a couple, abandoned the Party to vote for the measure. That hardly consitutes the sort of massive defection from a troubled, but proper, policy.

I agree that it is very unlikely that you will even make a half-hearted attempt of persuasion, since mostly what we get are cliques, slogans, and slurs from the A2K zealots.

I've highlighted the major error with your piece, Ash:



You're quite wrong; I don't hate anyone at all. But I do disagree with them about what is best for America, and I'm tired of watching them f*ck it up.

Cycloptichorn

Actually, this one is just as bad:



It wasn't that they weren't experienced in working in an unstable area; it's that they weren't experienced in anything. We're talking about a whole group of people in their 20's sent to Iraq to fix the economy and government. They uniformly screwed it up. Their only qualifications were that they had worked to get Bush elected and came from connected families.

Nice attempt at dodging the point, btw.

Cycloptichorn

Bush, while visiting Walter Reed, said he is sorry. For once, I agree.

When the prop thing goes bad.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Tillman-Lynch.html

Cute Avatar!