dadpad wrote:I just wonder what would happen if the umpires (the coalition) were pulled out and the players (shiite and sunni) were allowed to go at it without interference. Maybe border security so that another team didnt come in trying to interfere but absolutly no interference.
Sounds like a recipe for genocide to me. (But no, I dont know of a plan that
will work either..)
I really dont know either what it is we should do, or can do, in Iraq anymore now... But your post reverberated because this was the attitude that was taken to Bosnia at the beginning. Initial Western sympathy for Croatian independence quickly bled into intimidated indifference instead once the war there begun in earnest, and then exploded in neighbouring Bosnia. For a long while the "we should just put a fence around the place and wait till the fire burns itself out" school of thinking pretty much shaped Western policy - or at least impacted it to the extent that whatever action was taken (enclaves, the impotent UN "ice vendors") remained utterly ineffectual. The result was attempted genocide. The turnabout in Western policy only came after two years of war, and only because Clinton pushed it through against the wishes of most Euro-governments.
Its really, really bad in Iraq now - far worse than the conservatives make it out to be. 100 people killed a day - extrapolating that to the (10 times greater) population of the US, thats like as if 1,000 Americans would be killed in a civil conflict every day. The numbers make the linguistic discussions about whether there is already a civil war in Iraq yet or not seem silly. And yet, dont even think that it cant get a lot,
lot worse than this. A civil confict in the US that would involve 1,000 deaths a day would be gruesome, a state of near-anarchy. But a fully-blown civil war could easily be about 10,000 deaths a day, nowadays. Same with the Shia, Sunnis and Kurds - if it blows, you wont be talking about 10,000 or 20,000 dead - you could be talking about 100,000s..
Its like currently, there, its how Russia was in 1918, when the Bolsheviks had just settled in and violence started spreading across the country. But two, three years later, you'd had mass slaughter
and mass famine. It can (and probably will) become a lot worse still, either way..
(****, and I had so decided never to post about Iraq on A2K anymore.. havent, in months, I dont think.)