Put your money where your mouth is

Come on people, we have only five predictions here so far.

And not one from one of our conservative posters.

Timberlandko, get over here..

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I'll predict, but not quite yet.

Re RJB's NFL football thread, I've spent a fair amount of time researching teams, made what I thought were reasonable projections from the data, and keep getting skunked by, say, 21-20. Damn irritating.

If I picked today, I'd be wild guessing, because I haven't done my homework.

But I can make a summary statement that I still fear loss of senate for dems, and closer than predicted re the house.

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Re: Put your money where your mouth is
Bumping this up to the top with just 12 days left before Nov 7th:

Quote:

POLITICAL JUNKIE ALERT
Here are the Senate races that are leaning Dem or leaning Rep or are tossups. THE GAME HERE IS FOR YOU TO PICK THE WINNERS. You can change your vote if a candidate does something really stupid.

(An * means that the candidate is either the incumbent or is seeking to replace someone from the same party).

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r)
TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r)
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r)
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r)

Comments, even trash talk is welcome.

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Re: Put your money where your mouth is
I did a pretty fine job of making my own picks indecipherable. Here is my second attempt.

Quote:

POLITICAL JUNKIE ALERT
Here are the Senate races that are leaning Dem or leaning Rep or are tossups. THE GAME HERE IS FOR YOU TO PICK THE WINNERS. You can change your vote if a candidate does something really stupid.

(An * means that the candidate is either the incumbent or is seeking to replace someone from the same party).

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)...................Brown
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)..........McGaskill
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)...............Testor
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r).....Mendendez
TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r)..............Ford
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)..................Allen
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)....Whitehouse
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)....Casey
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)...............Kyl
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)......Cantwell
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r).......Klobuchar
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)........Stabenow
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r)............Cardin

That outcome would leave the Senate with 51 Dems and 49 Repubs.

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I think Chafee will win in Rhode Island as I said on the other thread. He's a middle of the road Republican who voted against the war. His father was Senator for a jillion years until his sudden death a few years ago. I think Rhode Islanders are rooted the tradition of keeping their senators in office for a long time. I could be wrong, but hope I'm not. It would be the end of an era...

I get a little nostalgic about my quirky little birth state.

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Sorry for the cross-post, but I'm gambling that it's interesting enough (helps in making a more informed bet perhaps too):

-----------

What do the experts think?

There are a number of websites that continually assess the current state of the Senate and House races. Each day or week, they update their ratings to reflect what the current state of play is.

(Note: this does not equate with predictions for what the outcome of the race will be in a week's time; it is all about how things look right now.)

So how do these sites rate the balance of seats at the current moment? I made one of those colorful little tables (of course).. might be well useful for you all - for one because it isn't as easy as it should be to retrieve these numbers from the differently formatted ratings pages; and secondly, not unimportantly, to temper some expectations on both sides of A2K ;-).

Note: re the Senate, not one of these eight "asssessors" dares to give a majority to either party. The race for the majority is at the moment a true toss-up. That said, 5 out of 8 give the Republicans a slight edge, while only 1 gives the Democrats an edge.

Note: re the House, even here only one of the eight "assessors" gives the Democrats an actual majority; to all the others, the balance of power is still in the toss-up category. But here, all of them give either a slight or a clear edge to the Democrats.

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/8879/assessing2006uscongriict9.gif

You can also go and look up the sites yourself:

- Congressional Quarterly Election Forecast Map
- Rasmussen Reports - Senate balance of power
- Rothenberg Political Report
- Real Clear Politics
- The Cook Political Report
- The Fix (WaPo)
- New York Times 2006 Election Guide
- Pollster.com

The real enthusiasts can compare this table with the one I made a month ago - and see just how much the Democrats have gained since then.

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Re: Put your money where your mouth is

realjohnboy wrote:

Bumping this up to the top with just 4 days left before Nov 7th:

Quote:
POLITICAL JUNKIE ALERT
Here are the Senate races that are leaning Dem or leaning Rep or are tossups. THE GAME HERE IS FOR YOU TO PICK THE WINNERS. You can change your vote if a candidate does something really stupid.

(An * means that the candidate is either the incumbent or is seeking to replace someone from the same party).

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r)
TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r)
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r)
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r)

Comments, even trash talk is welcome.

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OK, ok, soon. (Thanks for bumping this.)

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I'm going to revise my prediction (pasted in far below) - and perhaps counterintuitively, I'm revising it downward.

But first - the Political Arithmetik blog had been quiet for a while but has a torrent of great new graphs again now, so let me pilfer one by ways of introduction:

http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/7521/tnrsenate1102cu3.png

(The accompanying blog item is here.)

OK, so here's my take.

In Arizona the Dem is closing in, a great surprise to see this state suddenly popping up in the considerations, but I think its too late, Kyl's lead too much to catch up with - it'll stay Rep.

Virginia has been looking strikingly good for Webb, who has taken a small lead in most of the recent polls. But I remain sceptical. So long as he's not leading by 4-5% (and so far Webb's lead has been polled as 1-4%), I'm still betting on George Allen. Alas, because he sure seems to represent everything that is boorish about the Republican Party.

Tennessee seems to have slipped out of grip. Missouri remains an absolute and total toss-up, and since I'm a pessimist, I'm therefore still putting that aside as a narrow Republican hold.

I'm betting the Dems will hold Maryland and New Jersey, if with uncomfortably narrow margins.

That leaves, among the most striking battleground races, Montana. And there Republican incumbent Burns has made an impressive last-minute rally. Considering the advantage of the incumbent, I am changing my prediction on Montana to a Republican hold.

All of which changes my prediction to the Republicans holding the Senate, 52 to 48.

nimh wrote:

My winners in red:

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)

This seems the very closest race of them all. Anything that would move even the one percentage point could decide it. Eg, this is the one state where the pronouncement of the verdict against Saddam in Iraq - what was it, two days before the elections? - will swing the vote. (I dont really think it'll have all that much effect in general.)

MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)

Though it'll be a lot closer than the polls have been having it.

NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r)

But not comfortable about this prediction at all..

TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r)

Ford's been a great candidate, but I think the first black Senator in the South since Reconstruction - and the first Democrat elected since 1990 - is too much to hope for still at this time. He'll be close, though.

VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r)
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r)

So that makes my prediction ... Republicans hold the Senate, 51 to 49.

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One more thing about Chafee in Rhode Island-- Despite his family's longtime affiliation with the Republican party, he probably ought to have chucked the Republican moniker and turned into an Independent. The race is so Dem-Repub centered it would not have been a such a sacrifice to go Independent. He is not a Bush supporter. Bush will not be travelling to RI to see that he's elected.

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OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r) Brown
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d) Talent
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d) Testor
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r) Menendez
TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r) Corker
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d) Webb
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d) Whitehouse
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d) Casey
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d) Kyl
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r) Cantwell
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r) Klobuchar
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r) Stabenow
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r) Cardin

If I'm counting correctly, that would be 50-50.

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You did do your tally correctly, Osso. 50-50 based on your predictions.

I noted Nimh's changes, moving him to 48 Dems vs 52 Repubs.

And Johnboy moves TN from Ford (d) to Corker (r), resulting in me being at a 50-50 split. I am oh so tempted to move VA from Allen (r) to Webb (d). But I still can't see it happening.

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I can see going down to 48 for Dems, but will stick with this, sort of like my football predictions.

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I am moving my prediction of the Senate race in Virginia from Mr Allen (r) (incumbent) to Mr Webb (d). That would change my composition of the Senate to 51-49 in favor of the Democrats.
The rationale for this is or will be on Nimh's thread: " News and Discussion on House and Senate Races," if anyone is interested.

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realjohnboy wrote:

You did do your tally correctly, Osso. 50-50 based on your predictions.

That might be kind of fun - watching a Dem meltdown every time Dick Cheney marches in to break a tie vote! Smile

Won't happen, though. The Senate will remain Republican majority.

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Welcome, SierraSong. Pull up a chair. One day and a wake up left. What are your predictions on the races that seem to still be up for grabs in the Senate?

Thanks for playing. johnboy

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OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r)
TENNESSEE Ford (d)[/[/color]size] vs Corker* (r)
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r)
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)
MARYLAND [code][color=blue]Cardin* [/color](d[/code]) vs Steele (r)

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Please try posting that again, Glitterbug. Something got messed up. Thanks.

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I'm having some trouble. I tried to edit that item and the system said I couldn't edit other peoples responses. Anyhow, Cardin is my pick for Maryland, my home State. Farmerman, can I join forces with you if Santorum wins in PA.?

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Re: Put your money where your mouth is

realjohnboy wrote:

Bumping this up to the top with just 1 day and a wake-up left before Nov 7th:

Quote:
POLITICAL JUNKIE ALERT
Here are the Senate races that are leaning Dem or leaning Rep or are tossups. THE GAME HERE IS FOR YOU TO PICK THE WINNERS. You can change your vote if a candidate does something really stupid.

(An * means that the candidate is either the incumbent or is seeking to replace someone from the same party).

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r)
TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r)
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r)
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r)

Comments, even trash talk is welcome.

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Put your money where your mouth is

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