About two weeks ago, commenting on the various primary races going on, I detected a pattern. I keep coming across items that chime in with the same pattern, so I'm giving it a separate thread.
To start off with, here's part of my post of two weeks ago:
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nimh wrote:I detect a pattern.
1) Michigan: Schwarz vs Walberg
In the "Lamont leading Lieberman in early results" thread, I mentioned a Republican primary in Michigan last week. There, a moderate incumbent (Schwarz) faced a conservative challenger (Walberg), in a heavily Republican district.
Schwarz was supported by the state Republican Party, by Bush and by McCain. But Walberg received plenty of out-of-state support too, notably from the conservative Club for Growth and Right to Life.
Quote:Walberg, a minister and former state lawmaker, attacked what he called Schwarz' liberal voting record and made campaign issues of Schwarz' support of abortion rights and his opposition to a U.S. constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.
Background on that race here:
GOP looking to define itself - Hot race pits centrist, conservative
Walberg won, by some 54% to 46%:
Walberg upsets Schwarz in 7th
2) Rhode Island: Chafee vs Laffey
In the "Why the Left is furious at Lieberman" thread, Blatham posted another item "on the subject of extremists driving out moderates":
Conservative Group Sets Sights on Chafee, with AP reporting:
"Fresh off their first victory over a Republican incumbent, GOP conservatives seeking party purity on taxes and spending are focused on ousting moderate Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island."
<snip>
5) Colorado: Crank vs Lamborn
And back on the Republican side,
this Congressional Quarterly report on the outcome of last week's primaries in Colorado notes the following story from the 5th District:
Quote:While Perlmutter and O'Donnell may have to wait late into the night on Nov. 7 to find out which one of them will make the trip to Washington, Republican state Sen. Doug Lamborn can confidently start packing his bags now. He almost certainly clinched a berth in the 110th Congress by narrowly winning a six-candidate primary in the 5th District, a Republican bastion centered in Colorado Springs that was left open by retiring 10-term GOP Rep. Joel Hefley.
Lamborn's ticket-punching victory did not come easily. He took 27 percent of the vote to edge Jeff Crank, a former vice president of the Greater Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce who had 25 percent. [..]
Crank is a former top Hefley aide, and he secured his former boss' support. Crank also won the most delegate support at a pre-primary nominating convention in May, but Lamborn finished a close second.
Lamborn's win represented a victory for the Club for Growth, the conservative group that endorsed Lamborn and criticized Crank on fiscal issues. That helped make this an especially strong night for the Club for Growth, which also backed conservative Tim Walberg in his successful challenge to moderate Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz in Michigan's 7th District.
The House Conservatives Fund, a political action committee that is linked to members of the congressional Republican Study Committee, also backed Lamborn.
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Now these items concern a specific ideological battle, with Club for Growth-sponsored conservatives trying to push out established moderates. The hell with electability - ideological purity is apparently more important to them.
But those battles come
on top of other centrifugal tendencies, propelling individual Congressmen away from the Bush administration line, Bush himself, and party discipline in general.
I posted a good story on that
in this post - the one called "WHITE HOUSE WATCH / Analyze Diss" (you may have to scroll down).
It's all about the different ways in which candidates try to avoid being seen with Bush when he comes to fundraise for them - if necessary by getting "stuck in traffic"; and about a drastic attendant change in rhetorics in their campaigns. Suddenly, Minnesota Rep. Mark Kennedy, who opposed Bush's position only 8% of the time since coming to Washington, shows up in an ad
Quote:dressed ridiculously in a birthday hat and party blower to emphasize his daughter's on-camera testimony that he's "just not much of a party guy" and "doesn't do whatever the party says to." [..] Banished are any mentions of the president, the war on terrorism, or the GOP.
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To some extent, the Rove strategists are even encouraging such centrifugality. For the past months, the Republicans have tried to localise races, and make them as little as possible a referendum about current national Republican policies.
But even as a deliberate strategy, that has distinct pitfalls. The Congressional Quarterly a week or two ago published an article with the boring-sounding title,
, which nevertheless set out an interesting argument. If the Democrats fail to win back the House in "a near-miss that would leave Republicans in charge again, but just barely", that might be as bad for the party than just losing control outright:
The thing with such a marginal majority, I wrote when I
posted longer excerpts from that article, is that it hardly promotes an overriding failty to party interest.
nimh wrote:After 1994's "Contract with America", or, for example, in the UK after Blair and New Labour's 1997 landslide, a wave of new entrants swept into the legislature whose election had to a great extent depended on the national party's manifesto and image: it was the party, therefore, that they felt they had to thank their seat to - good for party discipline.
But if the above scenario comes true, not just does the Republican Party get to face a very narrow majority, it will be one overproportionally made up of Congressmen who feel they won their seat despite rather than thanks to the Republican and Bush labels. They will feel they have their seats to thank to their relative independence from party discipline, and that they have to demonstrate that independence in office to succeed next time again.
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Moreover, all these things strengthen each other and come together. Whether the Republicans hang on with a minimal majority or lose it outright, they will have:
- more independent-minded Congressmen, who feel less indebted to party leadership (and thus less obligated to party discipline) than before;
- at a time when, if the losses are significant enough, the ideological fight between religious conservatives and Club for Growth-conservatives on the one hand (who will argue that the party lost because it strayed from its principles), and moderate and pragmatic conservatives on the other (who will say it's because the party lost touch with mainstream voters), will escalate, possibly wrecking much more contention in the 2008 primaries still;
- all while Bush presides as a lame duck President and, with the presidential primaries for 2008 wide open, the party lacks any clear leader to set out the course and lay down the line.
Sounds like firework is guaranteed to some extent whether the Democrats will already succeed in winning back the House or even Senate this year or not.
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One thing to keep in mind regarding the ideological battle that's already started in some states is that, ironically, the more the Republicans lose this year, the more its radical conservative wing will be strengthened institutionally. This is what I noted here
when I was reviewing the NYT electoral forecasting map:
nimh wrote:The Republican map
There's other things that show up on the map. For example re the vulnerable Republican House seats.
Select all seats that are currently Republican. 194 of 'em are listed as safe to hold. 25 are merely leaning Republican this time, and 12 are ranked toss-ups. The 37 leaning and toss-up seats are thus a small minority - 5 out of 6 Republican seats are safe. But they are strongly concentrated. 14 of 'em are in the northeast - counting from Pennsylvania and New Jersey up. Which is where there are fewest Republicans already.
The effect is this. Imagine the Democrats score a 1994-type sweeping victory, and win all the seats that are currently ranked leaning Republican or tossup. In that case, the number of Republican House Reps from NY and New England would be reduced from 14 to just 5. Throw in Pennsylvania and New Jersey and their number would drop from 42 to 18. Still fewer than there'd be Republican House Reps left from Texas alone (20).
This would have a paradoxical impact. The larger the Democratic sweep (if any) this November, the more the message would be, you'd expect: people dont like what the Republican Party has turned into. Turn it back! But it's exactly those remaining old-fashioned, moderate Northeastern Republicans who'd be able to take the lead in doing so, who would be wiped out in such a sweep - unlike their evangelical counterparts in the South or Midwest. So - generalising - the more the message of defeat would resound, the fewer Republicans would be left who'd be amenable to hearing it. It would be up to the libertarian streak of Western Republicans to take it up.