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Republicans torn by recriminations, ideological purges?

 
 
nimh
 
Reply Sun 3 Sep, 2006 01:35 pm
About two weeks ago, commenting on the various primary races going on, I detected a pattern. I keep coming across items that chime in with the same pattern, so I'm giving it a separate thread.

To start off with, here's part of my post of two weeks ago:

___________________

nimh wrote:
I detect a pattern.

1) Michigan: Schwarz vs Walberg

In the "Lamont leading Lieberman in early results" thread, I mentioned a Republican primary in Michigan last week. There, a moderate incumbent (Schwarz) faced a conservative challenger (Walberg), in a heavily Republican district.

Schwarz was supported by the state Republican Party, by Bush and by McCain. But Walberg received plenty of out-of-state support too, notably from the conservative Club for Growth and Right to Life.

Quote:
Walberg, a minister and former state lawmaker, attacked what he called Schwarz' liberal voting record and made campaign issues of Schwarz' support of abortion rights and his opposition to a U.S. constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

Background on that race here: GOP looking to define itself - Hot race pits centrist, conservative

Walberg won, by some 54% to 46%: Walberg upsets Schwarz in 7th

2) Rhode Island: Chafee vs Laffey

In the "Why the Left is furious at Lieberman" thread, Blatham posted another item "on the subject of extremists driving out moderates": Conservative Group Sets Sights on Chafee, with AP reporting:

"Fresh off their first victory over a Republican incumbent, GOP conservatives seeking party purity on taxes and spending are focused on ousting moderate Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island."

<snip>

5) Colorado: Crank vs Lamborn

And back on the Republican side, this Congressional Quarterly report on the outcome of last week's primaries in Colorado notes the following story from the 5th District:

Quote:
While Perlmutter and O'Donnell may have to wait late into the night on Nov. 7 to find out which one of them will make the trip to Washington, Republican state Sen. Doug Lamborn can confidently start packing his bags now. He almost certainly clinched a berth in the 110th Congress by narrowly winning a six-candidate primary in the 5th District, a Republican bastion centered in Colorado Springs that was left open by retiring 10-term GOP Rep. Joel Hefley.

Lamborn's ticket-punching victory did not come easily. He took 27 percent of the vote to edge Jeff Crank, a former vice president of the Greater Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce who had 25 percent. [..]

Crank is a former top Hefley aide, and he secured his former boss' support. Crank also won the most delegate support at a pre-primary nominating convention in May, but Lamborn finished a close second.

Lamborn's win represented a victory for the Club for Growth, the conservative group that endorsed Lamborn and criticized Crank on fiscal issues. That helped make this an especially strong night for the Club for Growth, which also backed conservative Tim Walberg in his successful challenge to moderate Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz in Michigan's 7th District.

The House Conservatives Fund, a political action committee that is linked to members of the congressional Republican Study Committee, also backed Lamborn.

___________________

Now these items concern a specific ideological battle, with Club for Growth-sponsored conservatives trying to push out established moderates. The hell with electability - ideological purity is apparently more important to them.

But those battles come on top of other centrifugal tendencies, propelling individual Congressmen away from the Bush administration line, Bush himself, and party discipline in general.

I posted a good story on that in this post - the one called "WHITE HOUSE WATCH / Analyze Diss" (you may have to scroll down).

It's all about the different ways in which candidates try to avoid being seen with Bush when he comes to fundraise for them - if necessary by getting "stuck in traffic"; and about a drastic attendant change in rhetorics in their campaigns. Suddenly, Minnesota Rep. Mark Kennedy, who opposed Bush's position only 8% of the time since coming to Washington, shows up in an ad

Quote:
dressed ridiculously in a birthday hat and party blower to emphasize his daughter's on-camera testimony that he's "just not much of a party guy" and "doesn't do whatever the party says to." [..] Banished are any mentions of the president, the war on terrorism, or the GOP.

___________________

To some extent, the Rove strategists are even encouraging such centrifugality. For the past months, the Republicans have tried to localise races, and make them as little as possible a referendum about current national Republican policies.

But even as a deliberate strategy, that has distinct pitfalls. The Congressional Quarterly a week or two ago published an article with the boring-sounding title, , which nevertheless set out an interesting argument. If the Democrats fail to win back the House in "a near-miss that would leave Republicans in charge again, but just barely", that might be as bad for the party than just losing control outright:

Quote:

The thing with such a marginal majority, I wrote when I posted longer excerpts from that article, is that it hardly promotes an overriding failty to party interest.

nimh wrote:
After 1994's "Contract with America", or, for example, in the UK after Blair and New Labour's 1997 landslide, a wave of new entrants swept into the legislature whose election had to a great extent depended on the national party's manifesto and image: it was the party, therefore, that they felt they had to thank their seat to - good for party discipline.

But if the above scenario comes true, not just does the Republican Party get to face a very narrow majority, it will be one overproportionally made up of Congressmen who feel they won their seat despite rather than thanks to the Republican and Bush labels. They will feel they have their seats to thank to their relative independence from party discipline, and that they have to demonstrate that independence in office to succeed next time again.

___________________

Moreover, all these things strengthen each other and come together. Whether the Republicans hang on with a minimal majority or lose it outright, they will have:

- more independent-minded Congressmen, who feel less indebted to party leadership (and thus less obligated to party discipline) than before;

- at a time when, if the losses are significant enough, the ideological fight between religious conservatives and Club for Growth-conservatives on the one hand (who will argue that the party lost because it strayed from its principles), and moderate and pragmatic conservatives on the other (who will say it's because the party lost touch with mainstream voters), will escalate, possibly wrecking much more contention in the 2008 primaries still;

- all while Bush presides as a lame duck President and, with the presidential primaries for 2008 wide open, the party lacks any clear leader to set out the course and lay down the line.

Sounds like firework is guaranteed to some extent whether the Democrats will already succeed in winning back the House or even Senate this year or not.

___________________

One thing to keep in mind regarding the ideological battle that's already started in some states is that, ironically, the more the Republicans lose this year, the more its radical conservative wing will be strengthened institutionally. This is what I noted here when I was reviewing the NYT electoral forecasting map:

nimh wrote:
The Republican map

There's other things that show up on the map. For example re the vulnerable Republican House seats.

Select all seats that are currently Republican. 194 of 'em are listed as safe to hold. 25 are merely leaning Republican this time, and 12 are ranked toss-ups. The 37 leaning and toss-up seats are thus a small minority - 5 out of 6 Republican seats are safe. But they are strongly concentrated. 14 of 'em are in the northeast - counting from Pennsylvania and New Jersey up. Which is where there are fewest Republicans already.

The effect is this. Imagine the Democrats score a 1994-type sweeping victory, and win all the seats that are currently ranked leaning Republican or tossup. In that case, the number of Republican House Reps from NY and New England would be reduced from 14 to just 5. Throw in Pennsylvania and New Jersey and their number would drop from 42 to 18. Still fewer than there'd be Republican House Reps left from Texas alone (20).

This would have a paradoxical impact. The larger the Democratic sweep (if any) this November, the more the message would be, you'd expect: people dont like what the Republican Party has turned into. Turn it back! But it's exactly those remaining old-fashioned, moderate Northeastern Republicans who'd be able to take the lead in doing so, who would be wiped out in such a sweep - unlike their evangelical counterparts in the South or Midwest. So - generalising - the more the message of defeat would resound, the fewer Republicans would be left who'd be amenable to hearing it. It would be up to the libertarian streak of Western Republicans to take it up.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 3 Sep, 2006 01:44 pm
All of which raises at least one urgent question: when will I get an Award for Most Unwieldy Poll Ever?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Sep, 2006 04:39 pm
Quote:
THE GROWING RANKS OF THE CONSERVATIVE PURGED.
Critical Mass


by Spencer Ackerman
TNR Online
Post date 08.07.06

The Heritage Foundation has never been known as an intellectually adventurous place. For decades, its policy briefs and studies have closely tracked Republican talking points. So did the opinions of the think tank's senior foreign policy analyst, John Hulsman. In his Washington Times op-eds and Fox News appearances, he cheerfully whacked Howard Dean, John Kerry, the French, and other enemies of the cause.

But all these years of fidelity to the conservative cause couldn't spare Hulsman from suffering the wrath of his comrades. On July 7, his boss, Kim Holmes, sent a note to the Heritage staff wishing Hulsman "the very best in his continuing career." No one at Heritage was fooled by Holmes's euphemistic send-off--least of all Hulsman. "After getting fired," he says, "I was a walking corpse."

Following Holmes's lead, the official line from Heritage is that Hulsman left his $90,000-a-year job of his own volition. Indeed, two Heritage spokespeople initially denied to me that Hulsman was shown the door. When I pressed them, both then told me that the think tank doesn't discuss its "human resources policies." The reasons for Hulsman's departure, however, are perfectly evident. "At Heritage," says Chris Preble of the Cato Institute, "anything that smacks of criticism of Bush will not be tolerated." And, as the Iraq war faltered, Hulsman grew increasingly bold in criticizing the administration's foreign policy in essays and conversations with reporters. In September, he will co-publish a book with the New American Foundation's Anatol Lieven titled Ethical Realism, a scathing indictment of the neoconservative worldview. With his firing, Hulsman joins Bruce Bartlett, the economist who was dismissed from a right-wing think tank for his criticisms of Bush, in the ranks of the conservative purged.

And in the coming months, their ranks will likely grow even larger. Conservative recriminations over Iraq are igniting all across Washington, with opponents of the war loudly assaulting its leading champions (see Francis Fukuyama v. Charles Krauthammer and George Will v. William Kristol.) But what the Hulsman incident reveals is that the war's supporters aren't about to passively absorb criticism and issue public apologies. They are going to fight back against their critics--and an ugly debate will become much uglier.



[..] When I spoke with Hulsman a few weeks [after his dismissal], he told me that a non-disclosure agreement prohibited him from providing any details about the terms of his departure. But he was eager to speak about the ideological and policy differences that prompted it. Despite his firing, he continues to harbor warm memories of the think tank. When he arrived there in 1999 to revitalize its European studies program, Heritage seemed an exciting and intellectually open place to work. "It was always a big tent," he remembers. "There was a sense that you had authoritarians, neocons, realists and libertarians, all bubbling along." But what Hulsman took for intellectual freedom may simply have been ideological incoherence. In the '90s, no foreign policy doctrine dominated the party, and different factions vied for dominance. The brand of foreign policy that Hulsman espoused--a dispassionate realism and distaste for both liberal and neoconservative interventionist impulses--resided close to the party's mainstream. That, of course, changed with the Bush administration's aggressive response to September 11, which quickly rallied a new doctrinal consensus among conservatives.

As that consensus emerged, Hulsman hesitated to buck the administration and repeat his old complaints about moralistic foreign policy. In 2004, several of Hulsman's friends established the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy--a loose anti-neocon confederation of liberal and conservative realists--but he declined to add his name to any of the coalition's manifestos. "People at Heritage said, 'You've gotta be careful signing this,'" Hulsman recounts. "I think there was general unease about me not hopping on the freedom train."

But years of insurgency, civil war, and general chaos emanating from Iraq emboldened Hulsman to finally vocalize his dissent. Last summer, he and Lieven penned a National Interest essay contending that the neconservatives--and, implicitly, Bush--were "expending blood and treasure for problematic gains such as Iraq" and "significantly retarding America's ability to act against the true barbarians at the gate." In March, Hulsman vociferously argued against the arch-neocon Michael Ledeen during a House International Relations Committee hearing on Iran policy. He was subsequently informed that he was not to write anything on Iran for Heritage.

Soon after publishing their National Interest essay, Hulsman and Lieven signed a deal with Pantheon to expand their argument into a book, which will be released next month. "I worried about getting fired, but we keep encouraging people to believe in moral courage, so we had to show some," Hulsman says. As the book's publication date loomed, however, Heritage began worrying about his doctrinal deviations and the attention they would receive. "They had a desire to see what the book said ahead of time," he says. "I had a desire to say it was none of their business." And although Hulsman won't say what exactly happened next, that was the end of his seven-year affiliation with the Heritage Foundation.



The key figure in Hulsman's demise is Kim Holmes, who has directed Heritage's foreign policy program almost continuously since 1992. Holmes is an unlikely defender of neoconservatism. When William Kristol and Robert Kagan published their seminal 1996 neocon manifesto, "Toward A Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy," Holmes laid waste to it in the pages of Foreign Affairs, denouncing it as "low on strategic clarity" and "pure escapism." Days before September 11, he sneered at the idea of the United States acting as a "global policeman."

But that was before he went to work as the assistant secretary of state for international organization affairs in 2002. Over the next three years, Holmes quickly ditched all his old qualms about moralistic foreign policy. And when he returned to Heritage last summer, he began proselytizing for the administration's foreign policy with a convert's zeal. Last April, in a speech, he contended that "[t]here can be no real security in America without the advance of liberty in the world," an almost word-for-word quote from Bush's second inaugural address. With Holmes's new outlook, it was only a matter of time before Hulsman found himself in his boss' crosshairs. When I sought comment from Holmes about the Hulsman affair, he first denied to me that Hulsman was fired and then demanded I give him the name of the poor Heritage press flack who transferred my call. (I politely declined.)

While some believe that Holmes's long knives are simply a matter of enforcing Bush's prerogatives within the GOP, Hulsman gives his old boss more credit. "Kim began to adhere to the views of the administration," he says, "He sincerely changed his mind." But he predicts that the recriminations at Heritage--and throughout the conservative movement--will soon intensify. "If the midterms go badly, the civil war in the GOP starts the day after," Hulsman says. "The neocons and Kristol will say that Bush is incompetent and the neocons are not to blame." Maybe then it'll be Hulsman who leads the next purge.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Sep, 2006 04:51 pm
Oh fer chrissakes... the dirty word-blocker just censored the name of Mr. Francis "The End of History" F u k u y a m a in my post above (it was him v. Charles Krauthammer). System has lost its sense of proportion if you ask me..

Next:

0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2006 08:33 am
And, elsewhere, the censorware totally missed Ophellia Tits.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2006 10:56 am
nimh

What ties these disparate interest communities together is the gains they might make in the direction of their individual policy goals through gaining/maintaining power. I think you are exactly right to suggest that loss of power will set some of them at the throats of others. And your pastes here demonstrate the ways in which this is already happening.

Purging of moderates has been a policy strategy of some duration now. Rove, Reed, Norquist and Abramoff set to it in their college republican days as the means to assume and solidify their power. Delay and Gingrich operated on this policy as well. I know less about the Club for Growth and the Dow/chamber of commerce/big money community.

I gather the Lieven referred to above (the Heritage purge piece) is Anatol. If so, that book promises to be a very interesting read.

I'm hoping, as I know many of us are, for a serious degradation in Republican power in November and, for me, one of the big positives which might result is further discord of the loud and angry sort. Real agendas and motives will be considerably more transparent as these folks fall away from their talking-point discipline. Because so many of them are extremists, sane and moderate folks ought to (you'd think) begin to move the whole conservative package back towards something less authoritarian.

On the other hand, there is, I think, a fundamental and over-riding inertia
which will work to maintain discipline and power in the hands of those who hold it now. And that's money.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2006 01:18 pm
Quote:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-coalition5sep05,0,7451945.story?coll=la-home-nation
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2006 02:26 pm
I wonder how much the breakup of the DeLay-Abramoff money machine is going to impact GOP unity; there just isn't the axe hanging over those with outlying opinions that there used to be.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 07:36 am
Odd headline here, since it's all about how the Washington Republicans are backing moderate Lincoln Chafee in the primaries.. but a sketch of fierce intraparty strife, either way.

0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Sep, 2006 07:37 am
Quote:
No endorsement from retiring Republican

6 September 2006

A Colorado Republican retiring after 20 years in the House said Wednesday he will not endorse the GOP primary winner, accusing him of running a "sleazy" campaign.

Rep. Joel Hefley (news, bio, voting record) said he hopes his decision doesn't hurt other Republicans on the ticket in November, but he said he will not support the Republican nominee, Doug Lamborn.

"I made this clear at the start of this campaign that I would never again support a Republican who ran a sleazy campaign against another Republican, and that's what Doug Lamborn did," Hefley said in an interview with The Associated Press. "It's not good when we have these angry, bitter campaigns (against Democrats). It's sure not good when we have them within the party."

Lamborn campaign manager John Hotaling said the candidate ran a "clean, positive campaign." He blamed the negative ads on outside groups.

Hefley's backed his former aide, Jeff Crank, who came in a close second in the contentious six-way primary Aug. 8.

Hefley said he doesn't see himself endorsing the Democrat, Jay Fawcett.

Groups campaigning on Lamborn's behalf criticized Crank and others during the primary. One mailer from the Colorado Christian Coalition accused Crank of "public support for members and efforts of the homosexual agenda."

Almost a month later, Crank's supporters were so upset at Lamborn's win, they tried to recruit Hefley to run as a write-in for his old seat. Hefley turned them down.

Experts say the rift within the GOP has given Democrats their best chance to win the seat. The Colorado Springs-area district is home to the conservative Christian group Focus on the Family.

Hefley said he doesn't think Lamborn will lose, but he is worried Republicans will stay home on Election Day. That could hurt other statewide GOP candidates, particularly Rep. Bob Beauprez (news, bio, voting record), R-Colo., who is running for governor against former Denver district attorney Bill Ritter, a Democrat.

Statewide Republicans generally need to win big in the 5th District to offset Democratic votes in Boulder and other cities.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 05:10 pm
Quote:
Primary day a warm-up for November vote

In Arizona, one House candidate called party officials idiots. In Rhode Island, ad-makers turned a Senate hopeful into a political pinata.

And that's just Republicans attacking Republicans ahead of Tuesday's nine-state primary night, the busiest of the year.
[..]

In a Tucson-area seat in Arizona, the National Republican Congressional Committee has run an ad supporting Steve Huffman, praising him as an advocate of lower taxes and a "common sense approach to immigration that puts security first." Huffman is "the conservative choice," said the commercial.

A recent poll showed Huffman trailing a former state lawmaker, Randy Graf.

Graf won 43 percent of the primary vote in an unsuccessful run against Rep. Jim Kolbe (news, bio, voting record) two years ago, but party officials have expressed concerns he may be too conservative to win the seat in November.

The decision by strategists in Washington to intervene did not impress Graf or the three other contenders for the nomination. They held a news conference to criticize the move.

"They're idiots," said one, former state party chairman Mike Hellon. He and the three other Republicans running said the GOP had split the party and they predicted Democrats would benefit. [..]


Quote:
Chafee targeted in graphic automated calls about abortion

Friday, September 8, 2006

PROVIDENCE -- Less than a week before the Republican primary, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee has become the target of a push poll attacking him for supporting abortion rights.

A push poll is a telephone survey in which questions are designed to weaken support for one candidate or build up support for another. The negative campaign tactic is illegal in some states, but not Rhode Island.

Chafee, who is running for a second full term, faces Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey in Tuesday's Republican primary.

Several voters said yesterday that they received automated telephone calls asking whether they would vote in the primary and which candidate they would choose. Those who chose Chafee heard graphic descriptions of an abortion procedure opponents call "partial-birth abortion," which the poll said Chafee supports.

Eva Geoppo, 57, of Providence, said she received four phone calls because she has multiple phone lines at home. On the first call she received, she chose Chafee when asked who she planned to vote for.

"It just freaked me out," said Geoppo, who owns a general contracting business. "They said something along the lines of 'Do you realize Senator Chafee is for partial-birth abortions and he's a war monger?' "

The next time, she chose Laffey.

"It was 'Do you need a ride to the polls?' " she said.

Late yesterday, the Chafee campaign called on Laffey to denounce the "dirty-tricks" campaign "being practiced on his behalf" by a shadowy group organized in such a way that voters here are prevented from even "knowing who is funding these attacks."

"While federal law requires outside advocacy groups to disclose who their donors are, this organization has been able to exploit their status to avoid having to disclose their contributors," said Chafee campaign manager Ian Lang.

In response, the Laffey camp said: "We have never heard of this organization, and we have nothing to do with them, but we would say that these kind of tactics have no place in a political campaign and we would discourage any campaign or organization from employing these tactics, including the Chafee campaign."

Geoppo said the call came from a group named Common Sense, which Chafee's campaign identified as Common Sense 2006, an Ohio-based organization that has been running a series of negative TV ads against that state's pro-choice gubernatorial candidate, Democrat Ted Strickland.

Common Sense's telephone line rang busy, and chairman Zeke Swift did not immediately respond to a message left at the number listed for him.
0 Replies
 
MarionT
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Sep, 2006 06:00 pm
I kinda like Chaffee. He is the only one who has voted against Bushie. But, a Democrat would be better.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Nov, 2006 11:54 am
Another Republican victim of the Club for Growth:

Quote:
Neb. Roundup: Bush Visit Points to GOP Vulnerability

Nov. 03, 2006

Nebraska's 3rd District:
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Nov, 2006 12:16 pm
hi nimh !
i'm afraid your posts sound like the S.O.S. signals of the 'titanic' .
there are not many picking up your signals .
of course , as an 'observer' from the other side of the fence , my opinion doesn't really make any difference .
btw i wonder if a fence between the united states and canada will be proposed next (so far we've always been welcomed into the united states when we indicated that we were going to spend some dollars stateside ) :wink: ? .
of course , most americans are pretty decent people imo .
hbg
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Nov, 2006 12:19 pm
nimh, Sorry to intrude, but I'm guessing your non-response is a "no thanks."
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Nov, 2006 06:21 pm
Ah - no, sorry, c.i., just slipped my mind. Yes, going for a drink when you're here will be fine. Wait, let me take this to PM (I know you cant send any but I assume you can receive them), and I'll send you my email address.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Nov, 2006 06:23 pm
Great, because I'm looking forward to meeting and chatting with you.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 5 Nov, 2006 10:50 am
nimh, Your email address "bounced."
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 5 Nov, 2006 12:34 pm
nimh, Please send me a "test" email to <dantn22>. I can then just "Respond to Sender." Thanks. T.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 5 Nov, 2006 03:36 pm
Thats odd, it should work. OK, lemme try send a test email to your hotmail address.
0 Replies
 
 

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