israel.jpost.com
Dec 14, 2008 23:50 | Updated Dec 15, 2008 11:00
Analysis: Why Israel prefers the cease-fire in Gaza
By YAAKOV KATZ
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So, while Israeli officials made a point Sunday to stress that the IDF was prepared for renewed violence with Hamas, officials in Defense Minister Ehud Barak's office said that in the end, Israel was in favor of continuing the truce.
There are a number of reasons why and they were set out in a document prepared for Barak recently by the ministry's Diplomatic-Security Bureau on the benefits of extending the cease-fire.
Firstly, and most important, is that Israel knows how it gets into Gaza but does not know how to get out.
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Another consideration is that under any operation - limited or massive - Hamas would still succeed in firing Kassam rockets into Israel, likely by the dozen. The most rockets fired into Israel in one day from Gaza has been around 60.
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The assumption is that with the increased rocket fire, the IDF would be under immense pressure to push deeper into Gaza, killing more innocent Palestinians and losing more soldiers on the way.
Public pressure would mount against the continuation of the operation as the IDF loses soldiers and fails to stop the rocket fire and Israel would come under harsh public condemnation, possibly even from the new administration in Washington.
Last but not least is the northern front and concern that Hizbullah - which is still calling to avenge last February's assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus - will take advantage of Israel's preoccupation in Gaza to launch an attack along the border with Lebanon.
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