au, Most people do not seem to understand what happened to the bubble in Japan of over-valued real estate. Once the balloon popped, there was no way for them to recover. They've been in a recession for over 12 years. Our three years in the doldrums is only the introduction phase. A word of caution; don't believe the financial pundits. If they are so smart, why did most of them lose money in the market like everybody else? Make money in real estate? I have a bridge to sell in Montana on prime property for anybody that believes that. c.i.
Did someone say the economy is improving?
USA
Disappointing economic news on construction, manufacturing front
Posted: Tuesday, July 1, 2:21pm EDT
In the biggest drop in a year, construction spending fell 1.7 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted $869.8 billion, the Commerce Department reported. Another economic indicator also disappointed analysts. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose slightly to 49.8 in June, below the anticipated 51.0 reading. A reading above 50 indicates growth.
au - Yes, another negative economic report for you to feel good about. I factor it in with everything else, and still think we're on the mend.
Scrat, I'm not sure where you're coming from, but what makes you think au's post makes him "feel good?" His opinion differes from yours, and he's showing why he thinks the economy is not recovering. c.i.
cicerone imposter wrote:Scrat, I'm not sure where you're coming from, but what makes you think au's post makes him "feel good?" His opinion differes from yours, and he's showing why he thinks the economy is not recovering. c.i.
Well, perhaps I'm wrong, but it seems terribly important to him to be right that the economy is not improving, which seems to me to be a lot like hoping it won't. But you are right; he can hold that opinion and argue it strongly without being happy about his belief. Fair point. I retract that part of my statement and offer an apology to AU.
FWIW, I found this today:
Quote:May Factory Orders Rise Unexpectedly
Wed July 2, 2003 05:22 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Demand for U.S. manufactured goods rose unexpectedly in May, helped by a solid increase in orders of non-durable goods, a government report showed on Wednesday.
In another good sign for the economy, a separate report showed that applications for U.S. mortgages surged last week as consumers rushed to get home loans before rates increased.
Factory orders climbed 0.4 percent in May, the Commerce Department said, beating analyst expectations that orders would be unchanged. The increase followed a revised drop of 3.0 percent in April.
"It really looks like this report along with the other reports we've seen from the manufacturing sector... seem to point to an incipient turnaround in the manufacturing sector," said Mark Vitner, economist at Wachovia Securities.
"We're probably at the turning point."
http://asia.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3029195
But again, we currently have some indicators that things are not getting better and others that they are. au looks at them and does not see anything that suggests to him the economy is improving (hope that's an accurate comment, au). I look at them and think I do see indications the economy is improving. Could I be wrong? Sure. Could au? Sure. Only time will tell.
Scrat, There are too many mixed signals in our economy to determine whether our economy is finally showing a semi-permanent, longer term, improvement. Good reports are fine just as long as they continue the up-trend for a longer term than just a month or two. Our economy was doing fine in the mid-nineties, even before the tech balloon and bust, but for some unknown reason, this stagnation is sticking around longer than most of us have predicted for the world economy. Nine-eleven, the Enrons, Worldcoms, and Global Crossings fiascos, the Iraq war, and SARS, are all responsible for hurting the world economies, but one would think that at some point, those handicaps would have been hurdled by now. Even the best economists are stymied. The market seems to be improving for the first half of this year, but the big trick is to keep that stability for the rest of this year. Those of us in the US can hope that the tax cuts and the devaluation of the dollar will help us fight deflation, and keep our economy struggling along until our economy improves. Consumers must keep spending, because we make up 70 percent of our economy. c.i.
WASHINGTON - The nation's unemployment rate shot up to 6.4 percent in June, the highest level in more than nine years, in an economic slump that has cost nearly a million jobs in the last three months.
Dys - This clearly is not good news, and may well be a strong indicator that I and others who are optimistic about signs of recovery will be wrong. Still, I'm going to keep hoping and watching for the next few months. We shall see what we shall see.
Scrat, Same here; I'm going to keep watching for more positive indicators that our economy is in fact improving, but our unemployment rate is one of the big ones. c.i.
Just to make things worse, I heard a conversation the other day on the subject of the unemployment rate in which the general opinion was that, since it was a limited sample across particular groups, it was unreliably optimistic. So 6 really is 9, or something like that.
Tartar, I think the 9 is still too conservative a number, because most people out of work for much longer than their unemployments benefits just quit looking, and they're not counted. I heard on the radio this morning that the US unemployment rate stood at 6.4 percent. I think it's really over ten percent. c.i.
I heard yesterday (I believe on NPR) that the corporations are doing the same thing with the large tax cuts for the wealthy/corporate entities today that it did during the Reagan Administration (both occuring also with large unemployment rates) - their exporting jobs to other countries, adding to a jobless recovery that doesn't last long. A double dip recession if you will.
Bingo Bill -- I think that's where I heard this discussion! And CI, you're like right. I didn't dare go over the top with my badly rememberd figures because it attracts such attention from the Bush suckers! But I remember finding the process of determining the number interesting -- arcane and clearly faulty, even to a non-statistician.
As the discussions continue in A2K -- and continue to educate -- my priorities are shifting and becoming more focused. The Role And Out-of-Control Power Of Corporations has become top issue for me.
All these greedy CEO's that would continue to 'take' their multi-million dollar salaries and bonuses while they lay off workers in this country is in effect cutting off their nose in spite of their face. If they export all the jobs to third world countries, how are they going to continue to survive in this country? Short term strategies to enrich themselves will sooner or later bite them in the ass. They might as well move to the third world country they're shifting the jobs to. That would be the only way they can 'manage' their employees. c.i.
Tartarin wrote:Just to make things worse, I heard a conversation the other day on the subject of the unemployment rate in which the general opinion was that, since it was a limited sample across particular groups, it was unreliably optimistic. So 6 really is 9, or something like that.
Well, if that is true, it has always been true, so we remain in the same situation relative to previous numbers as we think we are. (If today's numbers are not accurate, last year's and those from years before were also wrong in the same direction and for the same reason.)
cicerone imposter wrote:All these greedy CEO's that would continue to 'take' their multi-million dollar salaries and bonuses while they lay off workers in this country is in effect cutting off their nose in spite of their face. If they export all the jobs to third world countries, how are they going to continue to survive in this country? Short term strategies to enrich themselves will sooner or later bite them in the ass. They might as well move to the third world country their shifting the jobs to. That would be the only way they can 'manage' their employees. c.i.
My company's CEO (a large, international tech company) has voluntarily taken $1 per year in salary for the past couple of years.
Scrat: "...we remain in the same situation relative to previous numbers as we think we are." And so?
Tartarin wrote:Scrat: "...we remain in the same situation relative to previous numbers as we think we are." And so?
My point is that if you are simply attempting to point out that official unemployment numbers have never been a very accurate indicator of how many people who want to work currently aren't working, then I agree; but if you mean to say that we should only be concerned that the actual number might be higher now, and would ignore that it has in fact always been higher than the official number, then I simply wanted to point out the fallacy of that argument.
Scrat, You know as well as anyone that your boss is an exception to the general greed of CEO's. Steve Jobs of Apple Computer also works for $1 a year salary, but the board of directors gave him a jet airplane as his 'bonus.'
c.i.
Could be, Scrat. Bill can give you more info. My impression is that circumstances have changed and once-valid methods of measurement no longer are. But the bottom line is, so what? People are out of work. The indicators are not good. The earliest the tax cuts could start making a difference will be October/November (Nancy Kimmelman on NPR). If what you're getting at is that the same thing could have happened in the Clinton or previous Bush administrations, you're right, they could have. But they didn't. The recession officially started in March of 2001. (That's not what this discussion about; it's about the unemployment figures and how accurate they are.)
(Edited to add Nancy Kimmelman's title: Chief economist at SEI Securities.)
