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Climate Change must be tackled NOW

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 08:10 am
Wolf, Perhaps you could form a club, with (say) brown uniforms, boots and other military regalia. You and like minded people could sing songs, march about, and intimidate those who don't do the things you think so important - you could smash windows, beat up the occasional cranky foreigner who doesn't recycle - things like that. You could call those who are better educated and more intellectually developed than you "old nags" and attempt to silence them with your bombast, etc. Lots of fun: you could create a new society in which those who do not agree with your poorly formed ideas could be silenced, and your nutty ideas could dominate all.
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Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 08:17 am
Laughing
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 08:18 am
Scrat and George --

A correspondent recently pointed me to this article, which demonstrates that a) we are not alone, and b) the opposition people like us face has been existing for centuries, more or less in its current form. I highly recommend it. Here's my favorite paragraph:

"Place at the apex of your order of creation a fiction. If you are born in the Middle Ages, call it God. If you live now, call it the Ecological Balance. Identify a perturbation in nature, then interpret it as a warning that we are living wrongly and should change our ways. Finally, earn yourself status, a pulpit, a Commons cheer, a living, or a research grant by elaborating on the perturbation and enumerating the ways we should change. "
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 08:36 am
You naughty boys. Please contradict where the following are incorrect....

1) the President's own science council found that climate change was real, that human activity was a significant factor, and that the consequences were deserving of attention

2) the majority of climatologists holds the above to be true
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 08:51 am
blatham wrote:
You naughty boys. Please contradict where the following are incorrect....

1) the President's own science council found that climate change was real, that human activity was a significant factor, and that the consequences were deserving of attention

2) the majority of climatologists holds the above to be true

All true. But:

3) The likely consequences have been getting attention for a long time now. As a result, we now know several more things

a) any remotely probable amount of global warming is much smaller than the amount it would take to produce a catastrophe. In 1997, the last time the IPCC tried to give its best estimate of future global warming, it was in the neighborhood of 5°F during the 21st century. In its most recent report, issued in 2000 I think, it specifically makes a point of not making such an estimate and emphasiszes that the scenarios it calculated are not predictions.

b) the much-feared rise of sea levels is on the scale of one or two feet per century, which most people can live with. Those posters of whales swimming between sunken New York Skyscrapers -- very popular among environmentalists -- are pure fantasy.

c) If we are to prevent the adverse consequences of global warming, technical fixes like air conditioning and draining swamps are a much more efficient investment of our limited resources than preventing global warming is. That's what I mean when I say that global warming is a problem that's not worth fixing.

My beef with environmentalists is not about points 1 and 2, it's about point 3.
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georgeob1
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 09:52 am
Blatham,

I doubt that any serious student of these matters would take exception with your statements. Indeed most climatologists recognize that climate change is an indisputable fact in the geological record of the earth: it has been going on for millions of years and its origins predate mankind. Moreover nearly all agree that human activity is among the significant factors that may effect its future trends, and that because of that it merits serious consideration.

That however is a far cry from the assertions, explicit or implicit, by Wolf and other protagonists of 'global warming' that the emission of greenhouse gases will cause an unstable, accelerating, and lasting trend of global warming that will overwhelm all other factors in this complex dynamic and bring about the kind of horrors often predicted. The science does not indicate that outcome. Indeed there are known factors in the meteorological dynamic that could significantly damp even the very small, and uncertain, changes we have measured.

The agenda of the rabid environmentalists; no nuclear power, no use of coal or petroleum, emphasis on solar, hydroelectric, wind and biomass fuels, proposals for the use of hydrogen as a fuel for motor vehicles, and a mandatory regime of government enforced restrictions on all of these matters - is neither self-consistent with respect to the global warming matter, or even other items on their environmental agenda such as agricultural runoff in the watershed, or - in the case of hydrogen as a fuel- with the elementary facts of established science. In short these positions taken together do not constitute a rational set of policy priorities. There are many devils in the details of all this and the protagonists of these ideas ask us to ignore them all in the name of the perceived urgency of the warming matter. That too contradicts the known facts and science on the issue.

Evidently Thomas believes that some small degree of continued warming will be the result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but that owing to its mixed effects - some beneficial, some adverse, and to the overall small scale of these effects, concludes it is not worth the very high cost of fixing. I generally agree with him, but do not accept that the warming phenomenon, though small, will even be necessarily lasting. However that difference in our views does not produce much of a difference in what we propose to do, and not do, about it.
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wolf
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 11:20 am
Let me inform that amorphous outwashed jelly in your skulls: European agriculture -- you know, that luxurious economic activity we get our food from -- just lost 3 billion euros. A couple of summer months indicating the highest temperatures for that zone in the history of meteorology did it.

You guys even sell your egocentric, pedantic and dried up spin in the middle of the very phenomena you try to debunk. I'm willing to put on my leather boots and educate your behinds, yes. Because apparently your teachers never did.

This warming thing you mentally choose to ignore, based on little more but condescending arrogance, is here. This warming thing also has the tendency to never leave a closed system, but to keep working inside of it. You say: don't panic, it's those silly commie environmentalists who want to take away your freedom who're getting hysterical.

Hey, I wouldn't have to do this if you would be somewhat caring and intelligent enough to recognize the necessity of political decisions when they are warranted. Until you do I'll be on your back like a fly on ****.
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georgeob1
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 11:46 am
Wolf,

You are making a fool of yourself again with the overblown rhetoric and frankly stupid criticisms of the inner qualities and motives of others - things which you cannot possibly know. While you may imagine you are somehow "on our backs" over this, the fact is that you are quite forgettable and without influence.
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Thomas
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 11:52 am
wolf wrote:
European agriculture -- you know, that luxurious economic activity we get our food from -- just lost 3 billion euros.

I don't know the source of this number, but it's possible some European farmers have lost that much. European wineries, on the other hand, have gained a lot, and Walter and I have both linked to articles about the phenomenon. Do you have any evidence that the gains for some farmers were smaller than the losses to others? Anyway, Europe is an unfortunate case for your point since the main problem for European farmers is overproduction (and low prices), not underproduction. They would welcome any persistent change that gets productivity down and prices up. It would also save the European union a lot of money, since they hand out heavy subsidies for farmers to refrain from producing more.

wolf wrote:
This warming thing you mentally choose to ignore, based on little more but condescending arrogance, is here.

... and has been here for the last, say, 150 years, during which food production has exploded and food prices have plummeted. Your theory, applied to the year 1850, would predict the opposite, which is a good reason to believe it is false.

wolf wrote:
This warming thing also has the tendency to never leave a closed system, but to keep working inside of it. You say: don't panic, it's those silly commie environmentalists who want to take away your freedom who're getting hysterical.

No. I say that Earth is not, and never has been, a closed system. Normally this is a point only die-hard creationists don't get. Coincidence?
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wolf
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 01:01 pm
I posted the '3 billion euros in damage for EU agriculture'-message a few days ago. The damage by a rise of temperatures is not only possible, it's happening, and only ostracists think this heat wave was coincidental / had nothing to do with the artificial greenhouse build up.

When o when will you contend that there is a real problem here; is there a part of your self-proclaimed rationality missing?
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Thomas
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 04:05 pm
wolf wrote:
When o when will you contend that there is a real problem here;

As soon as you post serious evidence for it. Meanwhile, I'm more concerned about the problems of Antarctica -- a fabulous piece of land that has become uninhabitable due to a hazardous combination of global cooling and continental drift. The poor continent desperately needs a healthy dose of global warming to start up a decent ecosystem. 50-60°F should do the trick -- so please excuse me as I get my SUV out of the garage ... Wink
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Lightwizard
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 04:09 pm
I hope that's an amphibious SUV, Thomas.
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wolf
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 04:13 pm
Thomas: the only serious evidence you believe in is the stuff of dreams, pal. Go see a shrink, and try not to procreate.

Quote:
Scientists debunk Bush's global warming
February 25, 2003: Seventeen scientists can't be wrong. At least not when they're experts on a panel convened by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (at the request of the Bush administration), and they issue a scathing report on the White House proposal for addressing climate change. According to the experts, President Bush has taken "a good first step" but the administration's strategic plan needs "major improvement." Specifically, the Bush plan lacks "a guiding vision, executable goals, [and] clear timetables," according to the experts. They also noted that the administration's overall goal -- to determine the seriousness of global warming in order to make sound decisions about how to address it -- could never be achieved at the paltry funding levels proposed in Bush's 2004 budget request. Even more embarrassing for the White House, the experts ridiculed the idea of conducting research on questions about which there is already scientific consensus -- namely, that climate change is happening and it's primarily caused by carbon dioxide pollution generated by human activities. Bush officials pledged that some of the panel's recommendations would be reflected in the final proposal, expected to be released in April.

"The scientific panel's underlying conclusion amounted to a collective, 'Duh.' The message to the administration was that global warming obviously poses a serious threat to the world, and it's long past time for the White House to stop debating the science and start doing something to fix the climate change problem," said David Doniger, policy director of NRDC's Climate Center.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has announced a bold new attack on global warming, pledging a 60 percent cut in carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping pollution by mid-century. Characterizing global warming as a national security issue, Mr. Blair said economic strength goes hand-in-hand with a safe, healthy environment and promised to encourage the U.S. and other governments to follow Great Britain's lead. Mr. Blair's new plan contrasts sharply with Bush administration global warming policy. The White House continues to oppose global warming pollution standards, favoring voluntary self-policing by polluters. Moreover, the president's stated target for global warming "emissions intensity" -- emissions relative to economic output -- translates into a 14 percent pollution increase over the next decade.
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wolf
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 05:16 pm
Tell your senators to cast a historic vote to fight global warming
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blatham
 
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Reply Wed 22 Oct, 2003 07:05 pm
guys

I'm a fan of this debate, and of each of you actually. But I do not, right now, have time to wade in and do the necessary research to speak or argue compellingly for the viewpoint I lean towards. Where my reading bumps me into valid and interesting pieces, I'll note them here.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Oct, 2003 01:28 am
wolf wrote:
Thomas: the only serious evidence you believe in is the stuff of dreams, pal. Go see a shrink, and try not to procreate.


Wolf, this time I didn't read past the first sentence of your reference: "Seventeen scientists cannot be wrong". Of course they can! I distinctly remember seeing a 1920 book "100 scientists against Einstein", 'proving' that general relativity theory cannot be true. And if you read creationist pamphlets, they, too, find it easy to come up with (at least) seventeen scientists who support creationism. Are you saying that these seventy "cannot be wrong" too?
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wolf
 
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Reply Thu 23 Oct, 2003 02:26 am
Hey, I can't help you. Sweet dreams in never-never-warming land.
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wolf
 
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Reply Thu 23 Oct, 2003 04:06 am
And speaking of closed systems. You were right about one thing: the Earth is not supposed to be a closed system. Infrared reflection of the sun's energy is supposed to leave the atmosphere.

Now the problem is precisely that we are turning Earth into a closed system by building up an excess amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Infrared radiation can no longer leave the system. Damage to the ecosystem is prone, since the heat in the lower troposphere will increase which will unavoidably lead to a meteorological upset. Basic science.

I understand that you take this upset to be harmless as long as no evidence is presented to prove it. Take off your eyepatches, matie, the harm is already being done.

You complain of a lack of evidence for the deterioration of the ecosystem, but fail to recognize what we have suffered from during the past summer, and you omit other clear omens of climate change, and on top of that, you provide absolutely no evidence that supports your complaint, besides looping your eternal record of totalitarian skepticism.
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wolf
 
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Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2003 11:01 pm
I understand California is again being terrorised by huge forest fires. I thought summer time was over. The incendiary climate change has shown record peaks in dryness -- I've never heard of so many forest burnings on the planet before. Of course, the sudden release of tousands of tons of CO2 in the fires is a perfect example of how global warming affirms, feeds itself and becomes bigger.

Quote:
What may result is called a "positive feedback loop." Global warming enhances conditions that feed forest fires, while a large increase in fires releases more greenhouse gases into the environment. Greenhouse gas emission contributes to global warming - a cycle that constantly feeds itself.
Fighting fires


Fans of high risk may respond: no problem, the forests will shift to areas where summer rages less, northwards. That may be true for a relatively short period of time, but as warming increases, forestation can not keep up the pace. We will loose more trees than we gain.

Quote:
The projected 2°C (3.6°F) warming could shift the ideal range for many North American forest species by about 300 km (200 mi.) to the north. If the climate changes slowly enough, warmer temperatures may enable the trees to colonize north into areas that are currently too cold, at about the same rate as southern areas became too hot and dry for the species to survive. If the earth warms 2°C (3.6°F) in 100 years, however, the species would have to migrate about 2 miles every year.
EPA - Global warming and impact on forests


The reabsorption of an amount of CO2 released by forest fires by other green areas may limit the damage, but this will eventually diminish as well, as more and more zones get drier. Plant species, again, don't seem to be able to keep pace with the global increase in temperatures. They may adapt over centuries, but not within decades.

Quote:
On the positive side, CO2 has a beneficial fertilization effect on plants, and also enables plants to use water more efficiently. These effects might enable some species to resist the adverse effects of warmer temperatures or drier soils. On the negative side, forest fires are likely to become more frequent and severe if soils become drier.
EPA - Global warming and impact on forests


Quote:
Most of the early CO2 research was done on juvenile trees in pots and growth chambers, which may limit the usefulness of some conclusions. New research is beginning to emerge that focuses on larger trees or intact forested ecosystems. Recent reviews of this newer literature (Curtis, 1996; Eamus, 1996a) indicate that acclimation may not be as prevalent when roots are unconstrained; that leaf conductance may not be reduced; and that both responses depend on the experimental conditions, the length of exposure, and the degree of nutrient or water stress. These results imply that forests could produce more leaf area under elevated CO2 but may not gain a benefit from increased WUE. In fact, with increased leaf area, transpiration should increase on a per-tree basis, and the stand would use more water (Eamus, 1996a). Elevated temperatures would increase transpiration even further, perhaps drying the soil and inducing a drought effect on the ecosystem (Eamus, 1996a).
IPCC - Regional Impacts of Climate change


This has a highly probable negative effect on food and water stocks, as decreases in forestation amount to decreases in fertility for a region.

Quote:
Forests play a large role in global water and energy feedbacks and account for most of the world's terrestrial evapotranspiration, which is about 64% of the precipitation. Most of the world's freshwater resources originate in forested regions, where water quality is directly related to forest health.
IPCC - Regional Impacts of Climate change


Antropogenic release of greenhouse gases has significantly increased the greenhouse build up effect, hence increasing infrared absorption in the atmosphere, hence boosting global temperatures, aggravating the release of captured CO2 in natural sinks, through forest fires but also through other major CO2 releases:

Quote:
Carbon stocks in frozen soils and wetlands, which have accumulated over centuries or millennia as a result of natural processes, are vulnerable to releases due to changing environmental forcing (e.g., warming or changes in the water table). Because of the large areas involved, such responses to indirect or natural effects could result in potentially large emissions.
IPCC Meeting on Current Scientific Understanding of the Processes Affecting Terrestrial Carbon Stocks and Human Influences upon Them (pdf)


And then it all starts over again. Within a relatively short period of time, the planet's buildup of greenhouse gases will exceed its absorption rate. Then what?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2003 06:10 am
'They' are finding every day new arguments for the one and (more seldom) for the other side:

RECENT WARMING OF ARCTIC MAY AFFECT WORLDWIDE CLIMATE

(Please notice the conjunctive in the above headline! :wink: )
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