Climate Change must be tackled NOW

"In brief, the release of CO2 is not our enemy -- it's the most natural thing in the world. But the natural cycle gets disturbed when more CO2 is released than is reabsorbed; when prehistoric fossil sources are reintroduced into the scheme by artificial combustion, creating an overdose of CO2 that heaps up under the roof of the stratosphere."

This at least represents some acknowledgement of the dynamic processes involved in factors that influence climate. However it implicitly assumes that the earth's carbon cycle contains no elements that can damp small excursions in some of its boundary conditions. That is patently false. CO2 is absorbed in the oceans and combined there with calcium and other minerals into stable compounds (calcium carbonate). There are other processes as well - all have the potential to damp such excursions. Dynamic systems generally damp out small perturbations. One cannot dismiss out of hand the possibility that there may be elements of sensitive dependence in the dynamic of that cycle that could lead to catastrophic instability - (Hawking referred to that possibility in the material cited by Wolf.). However, I believe the geological record shows that this is not the case.

Just received the following link from a friend. Would like to hear opinions from the folks with some scientific background, and all others that wishes to contribute. c.i.
http://www.cheniere.org/

Reaping the whirlwind

Extreme weather prompts unprecedented global warming alert

03 July 2003


In an astonishing announcement on global warming and extreme weather, the
World Meteorological Organisation signalled last night that the world's
weather is going haywire.

In a startling report, the WMO, which normally produces detailed scientific
reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted record extremes
in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent weeks, from
Switzerland's hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes in the
United States - and linked them to climate change.

The unprecedented warning takes its force and significance from the fact
that it is not coming from Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth, but from an
impeccably respected UN organisation that is not given to hyperbole (though
environmentalists will seize on it to claim that the direst warnings of
climate change are being borne out).

The Geneva-based body, to which the weather services of 185 countries
contribute, takes the view that events this year in Europe, America and
Asia are so remarkable that the world needs to be made aware of it immediately.

The extreme weather it documents, such as record high and low temperatures,
record rainfall and record storms in different parts of the world, is
consistent with predictions of global warming. Supercomputer models show
that, as the atmosphere warms, the climate not only becomes hotter but much
more unstable. "Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global
temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and
intensity of extreme events might increase," the WMO said, giving a
striking series of examples.

In southern France, record temperatures were recorded in June, rising above
40C in places - temperatures of 5C to 7C above the average.

In Switzerland, it was the hottest June in at least 250 years,
environmental historians said. In Geneva, since 29 May, daytime
temperatures have not fallen below 25C, making it the hottest June recorded.

In the United States, there were 562 May tornadoes, which caused 41 deaths.
This set a record for any month. The previous record was 399 in June 1992.

In India, this year's pre-monsoon heatwave brought peak temperatures of 45C
- 2C to 5C above the norm. At least 1,400 people died in India due to the
hot weather. In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfall from Tropical Cyclone 01B
exacerbated wet conditions, resulting in flooding and landslides and
killing at least 300 people. The infrastructure and economy of south-west
Sri Lanka was heavily damaged. A reduction of 20-30 per cent is expected in
the output of low-grown tea in the next three months.

Last month was also the hottest in England and Wales since 1976, with
average temperatures of 16C. The WMO said: "These record extreme events
(high temperatures, low temperatures and high rainfall amounts and
droughts) all go into calculating the monthly and annual averages, which,
for temperatures, have been gradually increasing over the past 100 years.

"New record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in
recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing.

"According to recent climate-change scientific assessment reports of the
joint WMO/United Nations Environmental Programme Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, the global average surface temperature has increased since
1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been around 0.6C.

"New analyses of proxy data for the northern hemisphere indicate that the
increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to have been the
largest in any century during the past 1,000 years."

While the trend towards warmer temperatures has been uneven over the past
century, the trend since 1976 is roughly three times that for the whole period.

Global average land and sea surface temperatures in May 2003 were the
second highest since records began in 1880. Considering land temperatures
only, last May was the warmest on record.

It is possible that 2003 will be the hottest year ever recorded. The 10
hottest years in the 143-year-old global temperature record have now all
been since 1990, with the three hottest being 1998, 2002 and 2001.

The unstable world of climate change has long been a prediction. Now, the
WMO says, it is a reality.