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Climate Change must be tackled NOW

 
 
Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 08:42 pm
wolf wrote:
'Alarmist' intermezzo: Doctored EPA Environment Report Raises Questions

Quote:
"There is a section on global issues that does not say a word about the most important or serious challenge we have ever faced - global warming. That detracts from credibility of the whole effort," Wetstone said.

"It doesn't deal with the real environmental problems. The pattern here is to ignore science, ignore law, and ignore public opinion," he said.


A familiar feeling...

The party line on this is that the report represents areas of consensus, and none was reached on global warming, so a decision was taken to leave that out. (I'm not claiming that the party line is accurate, just reporting what I heard on the news.)
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 09:27 pm
The party line is not accurate; it has become a world known fact that our climate is losing its temper. And it's getting alarming indeed. Extrapolate this fifty years from now:

Quote:
Reaping the whirlwind

Extreme weather prompts unprecedented global warming alert

03 July 2003


In an astonishing announcement on global warming and extreme weather, the
World Meteorological Organisation signalled last night that the world's
weather is going haywire.

In a startling report, the WMO, which normally produces detailed scientific
reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted record extremes
in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent weeks, from
Switzerland's hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes in the
United States - and linked them to climate change.

The unprecedented warning takes its force and significance from the fact
that it is not coming from Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth, but from an
impeccably respected UN organisation that is not given to hyperbole (though
environmentalists will seize on it to claim that the direst warnings of
climate change are being borne out).

The Geneva-based body, to which the weather services of 185 countries
contribute, takes the view that events this year in Europe, America and
Asia are so remarkable that the world needs to be made aware of it immediately.

The extreme weather it documents, such as record high and low temperatures,
record rainfall and record storms in different parts of the world, is
consistent with predictions of global warming. Supercomputer models show
that, as the atmosphere warms, the climate not only becomes hotter but much
more unstable. "Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global
temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and
intensity of extreme events might increase," the WMO said, giving a
striking series of examples.

In southern France, record temperatures were recorded in June, rising above
40C in places - temperatures of 5C to 7C above the average.

In Switzerland, it was the hottest June in at least 250 years,
environmental historians said. In Geneva, since 29 May, daytime
temperatures have not fallen below 25C, making it the hottest June recorded.

In the United States, there were 562 May tornadoes, which caused 41 deaths.
This set a record for any month. The previous record was 399 in June 1992.

In India, this year's pre-monsoon heatwave brought peak temperatures of 45C
- 2C to 5C above the norm. At least 1,400 people died in India due to the
hot weather. In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfall from Tropical Cyclone 01B
exacerbated wet conditions, resulting in flooding and landslides and
killing at least 300 people. The infrastructure and economy of south-west
Sri Lanka was heavily damaged. A reduction of 20-30 per cent is expected in
the output of low-grown tea in the next three months.

Last month was also the hottest in England and Wales since 1976, with
average temperatures of 16C. The WMO said: "These record extreme events
(high temperatures, low temperatures and high rainfall amounts and
droughts) all go into calculating the monthly and annual averages, which,
for temperatures, have been gradually increasing over the past 100 years.

"New record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in
recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing.

"According to recent climate-change scientific assessment reports of the
joint WMO/United Nations Environmental Programme Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, the global average surface temperature has increased since
1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been around 0.6C.

"New analyses of proxy data for the northern hemisphere indicate that the
increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to have been the
largest in any century during the past 1,000 years."

While the trend towards warmer temperatures has been uneven over the past
century, the trend since 1976 is roughly three times that for the whole period.

Global average land and sea surface temperatures in May 2003 were the
second highest since records began in 1880. Considering land temperatures
only, last May was the warmest on record.

It is possible that 2003 will be the hottest year ever recorded. The 10
hottest years in the 143-year-old global temperature record have now all
been since 1990, with the three hottest being 1998, 2002 and 2001.

The unstable world of climate change has long been a prediction. Now, the
WMO says, it is a reality.
link
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roger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 09:57 pm
Pardon my doubts on this biomass thing, gentlemen, but it does seem that CO2 from biomass produced fuel has exactly the same effect as that from fossil fuel. I am basing my thesis on the idea that biomass fuel is used instead of fossil fuel, not in addition to it. Same amount of energy is consumed so the same amount CO2 is released - always assuming that now the coal and oil remain in the ground.
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 10:00 pm
It has the same effect, but ideally it doesn't exceed the natural carbon cycle that has been here since billions of years. Fossil fuels exceed the exhaust of that cycle --> greenhouse gas effect.
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 10:00 pm
in my own ignorance i see the only possiblity in the near future as being nuclear
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 10:17 pm
My friend Hawking told me all you guys don't know what you're talking about. c.i.

http://www.grovestreet.com/thumbnails/0/210400.jpg
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 10:17 pm
Nuclear fusion, yes. Nuclear fission (the present technique), no way.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 10:17 pm
He told me I was ignorant too! LOL c.i.
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Jul, 2003 10:56 pm
Stephen Hawking to Larry King, CNN, 1999:

Quote:
The temperature of the earth has gone up and down in history, so one might argue that a recent warming was just a natural fluctuation. But there is no question that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now far higher than it has ever been in the past.

Carbon dioxide is produced when we burn coal, oil, or gas. It is what is called a greenhouse gas. That is, it let's in heat from the sun, but makes it difficult for the heat to escape again. So the large amount of carbon dioxide now in the atmosphere will inevitably cause global warming. How much the warming will be, we don't know.

If it were only a few degrees, that would be serious, but we could adapt to it. But the danger is the warming process might be unstable and run away.

[...]We need action now to reduce emission of carbon dioxide. And that action must include the U.S., since you have by far, the highest emission per head.



link

I guess Stephen Hawking is an alarmist environmental zealot, georgeob1?
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 03:07 am
roger wrote:
Pardon my doubts on this biomass thing, gentlemen, but it does seem that CO2 from biomass produced fuel has exactly the same effect as that from fossil fuel.

It does -- and that's another reason why I doubt global warming will turn out to be catastrophic.

roger wrote:
I am basing my thesis on the idea that biomass fuel is used instead of fossil fuel, not in addition to it. Same amount of energy is consumed so the same amount CO2 is released - always assuming that now the coal and oil remain in the ground.

I agree. As biomass advocates correctly argue, the plants that produce the biomass absorb, during their lifetime, exactly as much CO2 as they release when we burn them. The process by which they do it is called photosynthesis. It uses sunlight, water, and CO2 to produce oxygen and energy-rich biochemical substances. These substances then serve as fuel. Burning plants simply reverses photosynthesis, so when we grow and burn biomass, the overall effect on atmospheric CO2 levels is zero. This pretty much sums up the case for biomass, and I agree it's a sound case.

As it happens though, you can apply the same argument to fossil fuels to make the case that global warming can be treated with benign neglect. As their name implies, all fossil fuels are fossilized biomass. Whatever plants created that biomass extracted CO2 from the atmosphere they were living in. And again, the amount of CO2 they extracted is the same as the amount they release when we burn them. If we burn our whole stock of fossil fuels, that gets our CO2 levels back to the levels under which these plants lived and thrived. So we know global warming can't be a life-and-death matter for our biosphere, because the biosphere that created our fossil fuels survived very well under the CO2 levels we are going to produce in the worst case.

It's a point the more ideological environmentalists tend not to get.

-- Thomas
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owi
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 03:41 am
It's not that easy thomas. It took a very long time to create this fossil fuels. Nature had a lot of time to adapt to this process. Now nature has not very much time(some 100 years are nothing).
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 03:52 am
Thomas, that is indeed a major gaffe you made there. How can you defend that the burning of the majority of million year old fossil wells within a few centuries wouldn't harm the ecosystem...? Not very rational ey?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 06:01 am
Although it's about this topic 'climate change' as well, it's from "today's news" and therefore I created a new thread.
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 06:22 am
Walter, I posted that same article yesterday. But you're right, it can't be repeated and forwarded enough. Climate change must be tackled NOW indeed. I rest my case.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 06:24 am
Sorry, wolf, but I must have overseen that!
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 09:30 am
roger wrote:
Pardon my doubts on this biomass thing, gentlemen, but it does seem that CO2 from biomass produced fuel has exactly the same effect as that from fossil fuel. I am basing my thesis on the idea that biomass fuel is used instead of fossil fuel, not in addition to it. Same amount of energy is consumed so the same amount CO2 is released - always assuming that now the coal and oil remain in the ground.

Roger - Do you dispute that the plants stored that carbon by removing it from the atmosphere?
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 10:04 am
Don't be silly, Scrat. But if the same amount of hydrocarbons are consumed in either case, what is the difference in outcome?
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 05:04 pm
Well, I don't know where lies the trouble, roger, but greenhouse gases are not a problem as such; they are released all the time in a natural cycle of decay, transpiration and reabsorption. Biodiesel merely interrupts this cycle by profiting from the CO2-molecules plants have absorbed in their cells. Every bit of CO2 that the biodiesel engine releases, was captured from the plants from which the fuel is made. The greenhouse gasses these engines emit contain CO2 that was going to be released within the natural cycle anyway.

This as opposed to the use of 'fossil' fuels, which free CO2 captured and sunk long ago and add an unaccounted greenhouse gas surplus on top of the natural carbon cycle. It is precisely this excess that traps solar radiation, creates a greenhouse gas effect, and stimulates the warming up of the planet.

In brief, the release of CO2 is not our enemy -- it's the most natural thing in the world. But the natural cycle gets disturbed when more CO2 is released than is reabsorbed; when prehistoric fossil sources are reintroduced into the scheme by artificial combustion, creating an overdose of CO2 that heaps up under the roof of the stratosphere.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 11:46 pm
wolf wrote:
Thomas, that is indeed a major gaffe you made there. How can you defend that the burning of the majority of million year old fossil wells within a few centuries wouldn't harm the ecosystem...? Not very rational ey?

Basically I don't share your view which implies that there's only one ecological equilibrium at which humans can be happy, and that any change in the ecosystem is a "harm" to it. I don't doubt global warming will change the ecosystem. In hundred years, plants that now grow in New Orleans will grow in Memphis, what grows in Memphis now will grow in Saint Louis, what grows in Saint Louis will grow in Chicago, and so on. Adapting to that change won't be gratis for us -- we'll have to build better insulated houses, equip them with better air conditioning, saw differnt crops on our fields etc. As I said before, I'm not denying some amount global warming is happening and that it will cost us. Unlike you, I just don't think it's going to be catastrophic, and I suspect dealing with it will be less of a burden on us than preventing it.

owi wrote:
It's not that easy thomas. It took a very long time to create this fossil fuels. Nature had a lot of time to adapt to this process. Now nature has not very much time(some 100 years are nothing).

On the other hand, nature has a lot less adapting to do this time. In particular, it doesn't have to evolve new species. All the plants and animals that now live exist because their predecessors have survived under the conditions before plants reduced CO2 levels by fossilizing. So this time, nature only has to move the species that already exist towards colder regions -- towards the poles and up the mountains. Spreading seeds a few miles north per year isn't too hard for our flora, and migrating a few miles north per year is no problem at all for our fauna.

-- Thomas
0 Replies
 
Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jul, 2003 09:21 am
roger wrote:
Don't be silly, Scrat. But if the same amount of hydrocarbons are consumed in either case, what is the difference in outcome?

The difference is that when the plants stored the carbon (recent) it reduced the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, and when we burn that biomass fuel, we simply put it back. NO NET GAIN.

When we burn fossil fuels we free carbon that has been sequestered for a long time and so have a net gain to atmospheric CO2.

The difference is the difference between adding a cup of water to a bucket (fossil) or taking a cup out of the bucket and then putting it back in (biomass). The former raises the level in the bucket, the latter does not.
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