Well, I was talking mainly re finn's post and included your bit for context.
I understand the point you and soz make. It has traction for me too. On the other hand though, because african americans still overwhelmingly vote democrat, a dem african american candidate has a huge potential to bring voters out who commonly do not.
I'm not sure what finn is reading but he clearly hasn't yet twigged as to the unique quality of this fellow. And that is the two inch thick icing on all of this. Those of us white liberal types who like this guy, REALLY like him. That is an extremely common response and it will have significance at the polls. Further, his christian credentials and sincerity are going to move a lot of white (and black) religious voters who aren't inextricably invested in the conservative movement.
If we remove all of these unique particulars from the equation, then finn's argument (which you guys reflect as well) looks tenable.
It's certainly not my preference. I'm still fervently hoping that Obama will run, will get the nomination, and will win.
One thing I forgot to address is that he most definitely is presenting something new -- a sincere, uplifting, proactive, let's-roll-up-our-sleeves-we-can-DO-this! message that hasn't been seen for a very long time. It's a lot of the best aspects of John Edwards' message without the Breck girl hair. (Seriously, I wish that guy would shave his head or something to disassociate himself from that awful HAIR.)
He's my preference too, soz. But the Hillary machine looks pretty unstoppable. This bothers me less than you guys as I think her chances are far better than many surmise. And I think those chances go up considerably if Obama is on the ticket with her. Hillary is going to have (courtesy of bill's experience and personal PR talents) the best and most forward thinking strategists available. I would expect that the next two years is mapped out in detail (with room for changes). A combination of Hillary, Bill and Obama...consider how effective they could be in motivating the black community alone. My secret hope, if Hillary does run, is that this is the plan.
"I think her chances are far better than many surmise" is vague enough that it's hard to counter, but I maintain that Hillary as the Democratic nominee would be disastrous.
Disastrous.
Note, this is not out of any particular dislike for her. I ranked her fairly high on nimh's trust chart. I just think that she would succeed only among a way-too-narrow slice, aggressively alienating (by the mere fact of her existence and history, no new foot-in-mouth actions necesary) both far-left liberals and desperately-needed moderates (like JPB).
...IF that happens... if Hillary is the nominee, and Obama the VP, I would support her. I just think it's a very bad idea, and if it succeeds, it's about the absolute weakness of the Republican ticket rather than the strength of the Democratic one. And I want all the strength we can get.
I also think that if it comes to that -- if she becomes the nominee -- Obama as VP is very unlikely. Too many of the same positives and too many of the same negatives, while a VP is supposed to balance a ticket. They're both relatively new and unexperienced in the Senate. They're both groundbreakers (woman, African-American) in both the positive and negative sense (anxiety-inducing for some, exhiliarating for others). Etc.
I think you and Nimh have made cogent analyses here.
I only differ slightly about the assessment of Republicans promoting blacks(I agree the positions have been "eye-catching", but token, high-sounding titles notwithstanding. Yes, even Colin and Condie), and I think I'm a little more skeptical about the depth of the prejudice that would keep people from pulling the lever for Obama.
All alone, sniffing the desert air.
In today's Chicago Tribune, (20.09.2006, page 2, transcripted) "readers get their writes":
Quote:Loyal readers prove they have issues
JOHN KASS
There are some new reports about Obama in today's Chicago Tribune (section 2, pages 1 & 5, leader)
Looking beyond Obama-mania: Is he ready yet?
Clarence Page: Obama's audacious aura of hope
Here's some sophisticated theological and political maunderings from Mr. Falwell. For example, who is the real satan figure, George Bush or Hillary clinton? Barak isn't mentioned, but obviously, Hillary is. Note Perkins' comments. Note also who Falwell (at least presently) feels must not represent the republicans in 2008 (Romney, Guiliani and McCain seems so out of possibility he doesn't even get a mention).
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-falwell24sep24,0,4255550.story?coll=la-home-headlines
I especially like the photo besides above report in the print edition ...
In
another report in the Chicago Tribune, Oprah Winfrey says Obama is best Oval Office bet
An endorsement from Oprah? That's very good news! In fact, I think I see a certain citizen of Columbus jumping up from her chair and kissing her monitor as she reads Walter's message.
Who, me? :-)
I'm happy about it, to be sure -- my initial reaction is that it's likely to reach people who would already be partial to him, but actually you're right, look at what she manages with her book club.
That rates at least an air kiss in the monitor's general direction. >mwah!<
Thomas wrote:In fact, I think I see a certain citizen of Columbus jumping up from her chair and kissing her monitor as she reads Walter's message.
Hmm, I've noticed that here (thanks

) :wink:
By the way the link to the Oprah endorsement didn't work (subscriber-only), could you excerpt the pertinent part? Thanks!
sozobe wrote:By the way the link to the Oprah endorsement didn't work (subscriber-only), could you excerpt the pertinent part? Thanks!
You needn't subscribe, only to register. But here's the article:
[b]Winfrey's favorite guy: Barack Obama[/b]
She says U.S. senator is best Oval Office bet
Published September 26, 2006
NEW YORK -- Oprah Winfrey says her lawyers shouldn't have gone after the man who is trying to promote her as a candidate for president--and thinks she has a better option for the office.
"I feel flattered by it," the talk-show host told The Associated Press on Monday. "My lawyers overreacted, I think, by sending him a cease-and-desist order because it really is a flattering thing."
It should have been handled in a phone call, said Winfrey, who said she's thinking of calling Patrick Crowe of Kansas City, Mo., herself.
Crowe has been campaigning to urge Winfrey to run for president for years, setting up a Web site that has its own campaign song. A month ago, Winfrey's lawyers sent Crowe a letter demanding he remove her picture from his Web site.
Well, who would Winfrey want to see in the Oval Office, if not herself? She let Larry King know on his CNN show Monday.
"Any comment on this movement to make you president?" King asked her.
"Is there a movement?" Winfrey asked, to which King replied, "[Crowe's] got a movement."
After a little banter, Winfrey told King: "You know what I would say to [Crowe]? I would say, take your energy and put it in [Illinois Sen.] Barack Obama. That's what I would say."
King: "Is that your favorite?"
Winfrey: "That would be my favorite guy."
sozobe wrote:Cool, thanks!
You're welcome. Notice that Larry King, just like Oprah Winfrey, isn't exactly serving a niche audience.