Obama '08?

The percentage of Illinois voters who call themselves Democrats is at its highest pre-election level in more than a decade, posing a problem for Republicans trying to win the governor's mansion and key congressional seats, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

The poll found 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while a little more than a quarter of the voters identified themselves as Republicans. The 17 percentage point difference ranks among the most polarized partisan spreads in more than 16 years of Tribune surveys taken prior to an election day.

Obama in Iowa: Preview of 2008?

After watching Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) closely over the last few months, we've grown more and more convinced that he will come under significant pressure to at least consider a run for president in 2008.

While Obama -- and his staff -- continue to deny any interest in a national bid in two years time, his actions seem to belie his comments on the subject.

The latest evidence? Obama will be the special guest of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin (D) at his annual steak fry held this Sunday at the Warren County Fairgrounds in Indianola. [..]

Obama Watch: Another Hint of '08 Intent?

After yesterday's post on Barack Obama's visit to Iowa this weekend, another tidbit of information came to The Fix's attention that will certainly fuel even more chatter that the Illinois senator is seriously pondering a 2008 presidential bid.

Obama will be accompanied on the trip by Steve Hildebrand, considered one of the major "gets" for candidates eyeing the 2008 race due to his expertise as a field organizer and campaign manager. In 2000, Hildebrand managed Vice President Al Gore's Iowa caucus victory over New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley. Four years earlier he ran the Midwest for the Clinton-Gore reelection effort. Hildebrand also has considerable experience in Senate races.

<further info on Hildebrand snipped>

[..] the presence of Hildebrand at Obama's side this weekend means that Obama will meet all the right movers and shakers in the state. As we have said before, although Obama is extremely inexperienced politically, a compelling case exists that he should run for president in 2008. The smart money is still on him waiting until 2012 or 2016, but this latest development has to give even those most pessimistic about an Obama '08 bid some pause.

Barack Obama was standing before a packed high school auditorium when he noticed a familiar face in the crowd -- none other than singer Dionne Warwick. He paused, flashed a mischievous smile, then let loose with a perfectly on-key performance of the opening line of her hit song "Walk On By."

The audience of 300 students and adults roared with approval.

His office fields more than 300 requests a week for appearances. [..] State parties report breaking fundraising records when Obama is the speaker. [..]

"I haven't seen a phenomenon like this, where someone comes in so new and is so dazzling," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), a 25-year veteran of Congress. Schumer, who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Obama "is more requested than anybody else" in the party's hierarchy for fundraising and campaign appearances on behalf of congressional candidates. "Everyone wants him. He's lightning." [..]

Obama is scrambling to meet his party's demands. He starred at a March 30 dinner for Connecticut Democrats that drew more than 1,700 people paying at least $175 each -- the state party's biggest such take in decades. [..] A March rally on behalf of a Senate candidate in Vermont drew 2,000 people to a hall with 800 seats. "Organizers underestimated Barack Obama's star power," said the next day's Burlington Free Press. [..] In East Orange, Obama made three stops on behalf of Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), including at a fundraiser that brought in $500,000.

Onstage, Obama carries audiences along with self-deprecating jokes and gently rhythmic riffs that accent his main points. With a comic's timing, he gets big laughs describing how he reacted when friends first urged him to run for the Illinois Senate. "I prayed on it," he says, pausing briefly. "And I asked my wife." He adds that "those higher authorities" gave their assent.

Perhaps because he has been a national figure for so short a time, there's little of the air of self-importance that surrounds many senators. Staffers generally refer to him as "Barack" rather than "the senator," and they don't snap to attention, as some aides do, when the boss suddenly appears.

Iowa Democrats see contender in Obama

By Tim Jones
Tribune national correspondent
Published September 18, 2006

INDIANOLA, Iowa -- Most people would not choose to spend a Sunday afternoon at a damp county fairgrounds to hear the words of a politician who was not likely to say what a lot of them wanted to hear.

Yet thousands of the most hardened political junkies Iowa has to offer turned out to hear Sen. Barack Obama, who is being urged by some Democrats to say yes to a presidential bid, altogether ignore those pleadings.

And they loved it.

"The sooner he runs, the better," is how Sheila Pottebaum, a Des Moines psychologist, described her feelings about calls for the first-term Illinois Democrat to jump into the presidential race. "He has the personality and the moral convictions."

Obama, who was the featured speaker at Sen. Tom Harkin's annual steak fry, has repeatedly said he is not a presidential candidate for 2008 and that he has no interest in running. Yet his invitation to speak at Harkin's showcase event has only elevated Obama's profile. Previous speakers have included a number of Democrats who have run for president, including Bill Clinton (three times as speaker), current Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

Obama's appearance also has fanned the debate as to whether the charismatic 45-year-old -- not two years into his first term in the Senate--should answer the call.

That question is of particular interest in Iowa, which holds the first of the presidential nominating sweepstakes in January 2008. Nearly a dozen unannounced Democratic candidates have crossed the state. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts was in Iowa on Sunday. So was former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, who spoke briefly at the Harkin fundraiser, calling Obama "one of the great shining new stars in the Democratic Party."

In his 38-minute speech in front of a large American flag and a small stack of hay bales, Obama talked of opportunity, fairness and hope for the future. In one of the few moments of tossing partisan red meat to the Democratic crowd, Obama took direct aim at President Bush and congressional Republicans, charging they have politicized the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Pointing to allegations "pretending that some people are appeasers . . . [and] creating false dichotomies about cut and run and stay the course," Obama said, "I've had enough of using terrorism as a wedge issue in politics."

Despite the overall positive reception for Obama, it should be noted that Iowa is not into coronations. Candidates are expected to pay homage to ethanol, know the difference between barrows and gilts, and appreciate the virtues of loose-meat hamburger. But above all, if they are to win the hearts of Iowans they are expected to spend a lot of time here, in pastures and living rooms.

"He [Obama] has become this larger-than-life figure, one of the few politicians that enjoys rock-star political status," said Gordon Fischer, the state's former Democratic Party chairman. "He would start out with considerably higher favorability ratings, but he would have to face the same kind of obstacle course as everyone else."

Cameras flashed as Obama took the podium Sunday, reflecting for many a curiosity and for others a hunger for someone new to hit the state. Linda Alloway, a high school guidance counselor from Indianola, said she "loves" Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who leads most published polls of likely Democratic candidates.

"But she's too polarizing and they [Republicans] have made her out to be a witch," Alloway said.

That sentiment was echoed by others who felt that Clinton, who finished second behind Edwards in a Des Moines Register poll in June, could not get elected because she arouses strong animosities.

Still, the field in Iowa is wide-open.

"Hard-core Democrats in Iowa appreciate all these people coming in, and they are deliberately waiting for who else will get in," said state Senate Democratic Leader Mike Gronstal of Council Bluffs.

David and Mary Williams, from the southwest Iowa community of Villisca, said they liked Obama.

"But I think he [Obama] is down the road a few years. Not yet," said Mary Williams, who voted for Kerry two years ago, is not sure Clinton can win and is searching for someone to get excited about. Maybe Edwards, she said.

Her husband said Obama "needs more experience."

Gene Lansing, a retiree from Dubuque, said he came here for one reason--to see Obama.

"If he were running tomorrow I'd vote for him," Lansing said. "I want to see somebody like John Kennedy who can get people excited and get this country going."

The hunger for a hero or a political rock star is not new. More than a half-century ago both parties went after Gen. Dwight Eisenhower. Then came the Kennedys for the Democrats and Colin Powell for the Republicans. Now some believe it's Obama's turn.

With 484 days left before the Iowa caucuses, Obama, wearing a crisp blue shirt and tan khakis, left the dais with Harkin to a throng of well-wishers and autograph-seekers waiting under a silver maple tree. Obama signed for them all, smiling, while the loudspeaker on stage blared Bruce Springsteen's "Born in the USA."
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Thomas, I think the entire thing is pretty hopeless.

Who would be the Presidential contender on that ticket?

If Hillary, NO.

Others, maybe.

I want him in the President slot, though.

Thanks for posting that, JPB!

Definitely, since I started this thread, the idea of him actually running has become much, much more plausible.

JPB wrote:

Thomas, I think the entire thing is pretty hopeless.

I agree -- as hopeless as Clinton in September 1990.

Who would be the Presidential contender on that ticket?

If Hillary, NO.

Others, maybe.

I want him in the President slot, though.

Thanks for posting that, JPB!

Definitely, since I started this thread, the idea of him actually running has become much, much more plausible.

sozobe wrote:

Definitely, since I started this thread, the idea of him actually running has become much, much more plausible.

Much more plausible? With whom? Posters on A2K or in the wide world?

Neither Gore nor Kerry tried to win as Liberals and both lost. They would have suffered McGovern like debacles if they ran to the far left.

The first African-American president will be a conservative, and this may be due to racist aspects, but it's reality.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
The first African-American president will be a conservative, and this may be due to racist aspects, but it's reality.

nimh; That may well be true, for better or worse.

Oh, for goodness sakes.

Anyway, one thing I've said before that I'm revisiting now is that I think it's more likely that the black and/ or woman president threshold will be crossed by a Republican than a Democrat. :-? Not because Republicans are more enlightened, as a group -- kind of the opposite, in fact.* Goes something like:

Republican: Well, he/she's (black and/or female) but has good, solid, Republican principles so I'd be willing to vote for him/ her anyway.

Democrat: Well, he/she's got Republican princples but it would be so cool would to finally have a (black and/or female) president so I'd be willing to vote for him/ her anyway.

*Note, some Republicans are in fact enlightened, and some Democrats are in fact racist idiots -- talking generally about the two groups.