maporsche
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 08:57 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Not a Soccer Mom wrote:


It's a pointless Red Herring as the contests were not winner take all. It is the same with the popular vote argument. If that were the parameter, Obama would have run his campaign differently. This is like suddenly declaring that the winner of a baseball game is the team who got the most hits. It is gruel for losers.


Perhaps true, but it is far from evident that a change in Obama's campaign tactics would have yielded the needed different result. You have not - and cannot - demonstrate the truth of that proposition. Once again merely dismissing evidence you don't like. OK, I suppose, If you can get away with it.


And 'different' does not mean 'better'. His different campaign tactics under different rules may not have yielded results even this strong.
0 Replies
 
Gala
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 08:59 am
sozobe wrote:
I've wondered why they haven't rolled out more superdels -- it really seems like they have more in the wings, and why not now? "Shoving her out," that makes sense.


I think the Democrats are on a roll, playing it close to the vest (I read this as "safe" which equals smart) and are looking more to the general election about how to beat McCain. Scourge that H. Clinton is to many, she's a valuable asset, especially if she comes in 2nd place. They cannot afford to alienate her, mostly because it gives the impression of a divided party, which would be feul for McCain, and because the woman's a powerhouse.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 09:51 am
Yeah, they're being careful, and I think that's good.

Just posted an interesting rundown of "The Five Mistakes Clinton Made" on the Hillary thread -- in the course of it, the author mentions something Obama's campaign did right:

Quote:
As far back as Feb. 21, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was spotted in Raleigh, N.C. He told the News & Observer that the state's primary, then more than 10 weeks away, "could end up being very important in the nomination fight." At the time, the idea seemed laughable.


http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1738331,00.html

They've been really, really smart. I'm not surprised, but I'm happy about it.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 09:56 am
I lend little weight to the polls between Obama/Clinton Vs. McCain at this moment in time. Currently; huge percentages of their respective followers are saying they will vote for McCain if their primary choice doesn't get the nod. I don't believe for one moment these percentages are accurate. After a cooling off period; these disgruntled souls will have to face the reality that Obama/Clinton's politics are largely the same when compared to McCain exclusively. It just doesn't follow that such a huge number will cut off their noses to spite their faces. That's not to say there will be no residual damage from the primary; but certainly not in the exaggerated percentages we're seeing in the heat of the battle. The degree to which these people will "cool off" will have a tight correlation to how much more poorly McCain will poll (and likely fair) against the eventual Democratic nominee.

I also think the reluctance to push the loser (Clinton) out now is all about damage control. I think they're guessing that allowing her to bow out on her own terms will be more acceptable to the more rabid of her supporters.

She, on the other hand, would probably like to get her $11,600,000 back before quitting. I wonder how hard it will be to raise funds when anyone with a brain can see they'd be contributing, in large proportion, to reimburse already failed campaigns in States that have already voted.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 10:11 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Perhaps true, but it is far from evident that a change in Obama's campaign tactics would have yielded the needed different result. You have not - and cannot - demonstrate the truth of that proposition. Once again merely dismissing evidence you don't like.

Well, it's true that it's impossible to prove that Obama would have won too if the rules had been different, because he'd have run a different campaign. It's a hypothetical situation, after all, so by definition there can be no proof or evidence. Only arguable indications that would make one think this way or that. But the same goes for the original proposition.

Yes, Hillary would have won if the primaries had used the Republican allocation rules - and everything else would have been done exactly like it's been done now. But of course it wouldnt have. So what the outcome would have been with a different allocation system is nothing but hypothesis and speculation either which way.

In that sense you are right that Roxx can by definition not demonstrate the truth of her proposition, but it's not "evidence" that she's dismissing either - it's just one hypothetical countered against another one.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 10:17 am
nimh wrote:

In that sense you are right that Roxx can by definition not demonstrate the truth of her proposition, but it's not "evidence" that she's dismissing either - it's just one hypothetical countered against another one.


No argument there. Had the rules been different, BOTH candidates might have focused their plans differently, but even so, we can't know what the effects might have been. However to assume that with different rules only ONE candidate would have optimized his strategy and would have done so with optimal effect is one hell of a different hypothesis. The throwing out evidence bit was a reference to- and a conncetion with - an earlier dismissalm of evidence that failed to support a favored proposition.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 10:24 am
OCCOM BILL wrote:
I lend little weight to the polls between Obama/Clinton Vs. McCain at this moment in time. Currently; huge percentages of their respective followers are saying they will vote for McCain if their primary choice doesn't get the nod. I don't believe for one moment these percentages are accurate. After a cooling off period; these disgruntled souls will have to face the reality that Obama/Clinton's politics are largely the same when compared to McCain exclusively. ....


I don't entirely follow your argument here. The poll results showing similar and close results in a McCain vs Obama race and a McCail vs Clinton race are suspect for many reasons - the basic uncertainty attending poll sampling; the six months remaining before the election; and other factors. I don't deny that the elimination of one Democrat from the field might alter the results of a similar poll for the November result, but I can find no basis for predicting what that change might be -- up? or down?
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 10:24 am
re. hillary's "republican" remarks - which were replaid last night on CNN .
i just thought it strange that she would even refer to the republican system of choosing the winner .
i wonder why anyone running for party X would suddenly refer to the voting system of party Y if things don't go as expected - but i guess when you are in politics , you can use any kind of argument that one can think of .
as a democratic voter , it would make me VERY suspicious of the person trying to get my support . to me , it sounds like an endorsement of the election system used by the republicans Rolling Eyes
(any other "endorsements" of republican practices and values to follow ? Laughing )
hbg
0 Replies
 
fishin
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 10:29 am
hamburger wrote:
i wonder why anyone running for party X would suddenly refer to the voting system of party Y if things don't go as expected - but i guess when you are in politics , you can use any kind of argument that one can think of .


The comment itself doesn't really have anything to do with the party at all. It's just a rationalization on her part to try and justify staying in the race at this point. Call it "denying reality" if you will...
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 11:17 am
georgeob1 wrote:
OCCOM BILL wrote:
I lend little weight to the polls between Obama/Clinton Vs. McCain at this moment in time. Currently; huge percentages of their respective followers are saying they will vote for McCain if their primary choice doesn't get the nod. I don't believe for one moment these percentages are accurate. After a cooling off period; these disgruntled souls will have to face the reality that Obama/Clinton's politics are largely the same when compared to McCain exclusively. ....


I don't entirely follow your argument here. The poll results showing similar and close results in a McCain vs Obama race and a McCail vs Clinton race are suspect for many reasons - the basic uncertainty attending poll sampling; the six months remaining before the election; and other factors. I don't deny that the elimination of one Democrat from the field might alter the results of a similar poll for the November result, but I can find no basis for predicting what that change might be -- up? or down?
Confused Where'd I lose you George? There are lots of hard-core Hillary fans like BPB that are polling as if it's a three 3 way race, my candidate or bust mentality. But, for every one as illogical as the Bear is promising to be; I'd guess there are 3 or 4 that recognize the simple fact that Obama's and Hillary's platforms are 95% similar (they are both Democrats, after all). Surely you'd agree that at least some percentage of the "I'll vote for McCain out of spite" crowd will come to their senses, yes? On the flip side of the coin; no Obama backer is currently claiming he'll back McCain if Obama wins (there is no other side to this particular coin).

Sure there's lots of reasons any poll is suspect; but I don't see how you could dismiss one as substantial as the number of hardcore Democrats falsely claiming (or even believing) they'll vote against their own beliefs essentially, purely out of spite. The foil hat club that believes Obama is inherently bad, IMO, has to be outnumbered by the rational thinkers that can see he's much closer to Hillary than McCain. For this point to be meritless, though, one would have to posit that none of the current "my candidate or McCain crowd" will eventually cool off and vote for the guy closest to his or her respective ideal. That just doesn't make sense.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 11:48 am
I buy your argument as you stated it.

Perhaps the difference between us is that I don't think there are are that many (say) Clinton voters in the poll results for McCain in the parallel sampling & vice-versa. Note the persistent similarity of the McCain vs Obama and McCain vs Clinton results - if there is indeed a significant effect of the kind you ststed in the poll results it is uncannily equal for the two candidates. Alternatively I see the similarity you noted in the platforms of the two Democrats reflected very welol in the parallel poll results.

Can't prove it either way. We will know in November.
0 Replies
 
Gala
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 11:48 am
sozobe wrote:
They've been really, really smart. I'm not surprised, but I'm happy about it.


Obama has changed the dynamics, and it's about time. I give his campaign a lot if not most of the credit for the party having straightened up.

I think back to the last election with John Kerry and think-- of course they lost, he was such a caricature who thought he was entitled to the position. Same goes for Hillary, as pointed out in the article you posted.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 12:25 pm
hamburger wrote:
re. hillary's "republican" remarks - which were replaid last night on CNN .
i just thought it strange that she would even refer to the republican system of choosing the winner .

To exaggerate, it's like saying "If we decided this by bowling, I'd have won already!" Why bother referencing something other than the rules that everyone understood early on?
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 12:40 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I buy your argument as you stated it.

Perhaps the difference between us is that I don't think there are are that many (say) Clinton voters in the poll results for McCain in the parallel sampling & vice-versa. Note the persistent similarity of the McCain vs Obama and McCain vs Clinton results - if there is indeed a significant effect of the kind you ststed in the poll results it is uncannily equal for the two candidates.
Whether this parallel exists between disgruntled Hillary and Obama campers or not; there is no such battle reflected on McCain's side of the equation. Since he has long since been the designated nominee; there will be no significant diminishing of irrational threats of crossover when the primary season is over. The polls show vividly that many, many backers of Clinton/Obama will be "not satisfied" if their person doesn't win. (I'll grab one quick)
Source28% of Clinton's soon to be disgruntled will vote McCain? In a pigs eye they will. While I've no doubt many will have to "hold their nose"; hold their nose they will when the question becomes Democrat or Republican.
Stop Iraq Vs. Continue Iraq.
National Health Care Vs. No.
"Tax cuts for the rich" Vs. No.
28%? No way.

Every 1% that comes to their senses (cools off) comes right off McCain's polling numbers (other factors, notwithstanding, obviously).
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 03:59 pm
More superdels for Obama today! Including Rick Larsen (D-WA) and Brad Miller (D-NC).

According to First Read, Obama is now within 11.5 superdelegates of Clinton, I think. (10.5 as of Miller, Larsen happened since.)
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 04:02 pm
sozobe wrote:
More superdels for Obama today! Including Rick Larsen (D-WA) and Brad Miller (D-NC).

According to First Read, Obama is now within 11.5 superdelegates of Clinton, I think. (10.5 as of Miller, Larsen happened since.)


9.5, per Demconwatch.blogspot.com , which I must say really is the authoritative source in this matter, as they do not list a SD as committed unless there is a verbal record of their commitment from the delegate themselves.

Cheers
Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 04:05 pm
Cool!

(Also I typoed, 12.5 as of Miller.)

That'll be a nice moment when Obama overtakes her on that last remaining metric, too... :-)

I started to put my usual "if rather than when" disclaimers in, but ya know what, I'm starting to believe that we're in the home stretch... we'll see...
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 04:09 pm
Marc Ambinder wrote:
The Obama campaign calls its "Vote for Change" voter registration drive a mere voter registration drive. Nothing to see here, folks, except for ordinary people helping ordinary people gain the franchise.

But it's more than that. The Vote For Change program will lay the foundation for Obama's general election get-out-the-vote efforts. Obama aides won't say much more, but I gather that the campaign is constructing an incredibly elaborate online interface to allow its more than a million donors and volunteers to directly persuade their neighbors through a variety of media. Names gathered from the voter registration effort will be merged with names gathered through Obama's primary efforts and the names off of the Democratic Party's integrated voter file as well as lists purchased from outside vendors.

On election day, Obama might have more than a million individuals volunteering on his behalf. That should scare the beejeesus out of the McCain campaign and the RNC.


I plan to go to the Columbus Vote for Change event this Saturday -- anyone else going to their local ones? Would be interested in getting first-hand accounts if so...
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 04:15 pm
"If we decided this by bowling, I'd have won already!" Engineer, I so enjoy your posts.


I've expressed disgust about Hillary, but I don't particularly want to mock her, even though that bowling quote says a lot to me. I might be more interested in the McCain I used to appreciate, but I don't really want to mock him either.

The whole mock-mock pattern of discussion isn't always that useful. We know this on a2k. Well, there are levels of mock, and that's another thread.
But, I do so hope actual issues get talked about by the candidates sometime before November as other than Pieces in Game Plans. (I can see myself that that hope is silly.) In any case, I'd like to see more real discussion, without each candidate's every foray into actual thought being pummeled.

No one ever even thinks that these people could sit down and converse. It's foreordained that they can't.
0 Replies
 
teenyboone
 
  1  
Thu 8 May, 2008 04:31 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
teenyboone wrote:
Here's one link to the theory that aids was created in a laboratory:

http://www.africa.upenn.edu/Urgent_Action/AIDS_Contract.html

and this one, for starters!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS_conspiracy_theories

There are others, but this is but 2 of many. I don't make this stuff up!
I investigated this years ago, after hearing a lecture during a Black History Month lecture, given by Dick Gregory, in the late 80's. I had never heard of this theory, until HE mentioned it in his talk on how Blacks should empower and safeguard themselves against government intrusion.
It had long been thought that Blacks were being used for illegal experiments, for different diseases, but when the cover was blown off the Iexperiment at Tuskegee Institute, in the labs at Aberdeen, Md., where most clandestine experiments are funded by the US government, on germ warfare and other ways, like the gas, Sarrin, (don't know if this is the correct spelling), was used in the subways of NY, unbeknownst to the users of the subway system. Now, I can only write on what I've heard and investigated through this internet.

I don't work for, are is interested in, clandestine operations of the US government, but much has been chronicled over the decades on similar operations. The stories haven't varied much over the decades, but new information on whether it was a lone Frenchmen, who had sex in Africa, heaven forbid, somehow got transferred to african monkeys, go figure, and wound up in the US! Sounded farfetched to me, like a crazed person wrote this crap. With me, anything's possible, as far as I know.

If a man can go to the moon, the sky's the limit, so I don't discount anything. A lot of undercover experimentations are done with our tax dollars and we are lulled into a sense of security by catch phrases! I an still a sucker for American jingoisms, because I want to believe that this is basically a good country, with good people in it; that everyone, given a decent chance, can make it here! That we are inherently free, whatever free, is. I was taught to love and honor this country! A country that has treated my people to a history of enslavement! Freedom for everyone, but US! So, if I hear theories of this type, why should I sit on my hands?

Okay, here's 2 links. Don't know if they are true or fiction. Believe what you want, all you "doubting Thomases", out there!


I note your links (actually read most of the ramblings in the first one), with their now rather thoroughly discredited suggestions that the HIV virus was created by the U.S. and, probably deliberately, released to wipe out Africans, homosexuals and drug users, and your ultimate protestations that, as a "sucker for American jingoisms", you "still want to believe this is basically a good country".

Mostly I am curious to know why you posted it, and, in particular why you posted it here on a thread related to Barak Obama's candidacy for president. This canard is, of course one of several that the Rev. Wright asserted or merely suggested (depending on which of his repeated statements you use) perhaps in support of his Black interpretation of Christianity. It is also something that Barak Obama specifically rejected. Its repetition was apparently one of the reasons Obama later disassociated himself from Rev Wright, saying that he (Wright) was no longer acting as the the person he had previously known.

I can partly understand and perhaps even sympathize with your doubts and fears on a subject like this, but can't figure out what might be your purpose in posting it. Are you suggesting that Obama was wrong (or even being deceptive) in his rejection of this slander and others Wright has made? Alternatively, are you suggesting that Wright may be right ( :wink: ) and Obama wrong? In either case this would not appear to influence a reader to further support Obama.

Parenthetically, your second link pointed to a much more clearly verifiable government misdeed that really did lead to the needless death and infection of hundreds of thousands of African people - that is the denial, indifference and inaction (including even rejection of generally accepted and proven low cost public health measures) of the ANC Government of South Africa in dealing with the early HIV epidemic there. Neighboring and distant African countries like Botswana and Uganda sharply reduced their infection rates using the recommended measures, while the South African government did nothing, and even belittled the motives of the international; groups recommending them and the effectiveness of the measures themselves. The result of course is one of the worlds highest HIV infection rates and the continuing early deaths of a fairly substantial fraction of the population.


You have some nerve! My response was in response to an earlier post that was made against Rev. Wright and his argument on aids being developed in a lab and used against Blacks, Africans, gays and any other persons, thought of as expendable. I wasn't responding to anything Barack Obama disassociated himself from. Don't know what the dust-up about his pastor is anyway. Candidate McCain, has the endorsement of a reverend who hates Catholics, the Pope and anyone else that gets in the way of his pro-Zionism push, to have the 3rd world war started!

I have no idea what the hell you're spouting! You need to read before you accuse! Twisted Evil
0 Replies
 
 

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