georgeob1 wrote:I buy your argument as you stated it.
Perhaps the difference between us is that I don't think there are are that many (say) Clinton voters in the poll results for McCain in the parallel sampling & vice-versa. Note the persistent similarity of the McCain vs Obama and McCain vs Clinton results - if there is indeed a significant effect of the kind you ststed in the poll results it is uncannily equal for the two candidates.
Whether this parallel exists between disgruntled Hillary and Obama campers or not; there is no such battle reflected on McCain's side of the equation. Since he has long since been the designated nominee; there will be no significant diminishing of irrational threats of crossover when the primary season is over. The polls show vividly that many, many backers of Clinton/Obama will be "not satisfied" if their person doesn't win. (I'll grab one quick)
Source28% of Clinton's soon to be disgruntled will vote McCain? In a pigs eye they will. While I've no doubt many will have to "hold their nose"; hold their nose they will when the question becomes Democrat or Republican.
Stop Iraq Vs. Continue Iraq.
National Health Care Vs. No.
"Tax cuts for the rich" Vs. No.
28%? No way.
Every 1% that comes to their senses (cools off) comes right off McCain's polling numbers (other factors, notwithstanding, obviously).