Cycloptichorn wrote:Brand X wrote:The only reason Obama has looked strong is because he's running against the Queen of the Negatives.
If Hillary doesn't get nominated there are loads of her would be voters going over to McGaffe. Then there's another huge portion that will just not be able to go in the booth choose Obama.
Kerry couldn't beat Bush....no way BHO is beating McCain.
Every sentence is an assertion, nothing more.
I doubt that more then 10% of the voters who support Hillary will, in the end, support McCain. And I doubt that McCain will get 100% support from the Republican party, 'specially if he moves to the middle in the general. And I can't help but remember that the self-identification as Republican is the lowest level of my lifetime.
You're completely wrong, X. I understand the sentiment but McCain is not the guy to win this one.
Cycloptichorn
Tell me how you think the Obama/McCain match up is going to be a better match up for Obama than Kerry was against Bush. I still don't think this country is going to elect Obama if it wouldn't Kerry.
nattering nabobs of negativism spoken by Spiro Agnew, written by Safire.
okie wrote:georgeob1 wrote:It is probably important to stop short of drinking ALL your own bath water.
Just being open with my opinion, george. It is frustrating to see my candidate try to pretend to have Democrat positions on some things, and criticize his own party. I don't think he can win by criticizing the very people he claims to be running under the banner of. What I say here pales compared to John McCain's insults of his own party.
I still plan to vote for John, as of today. Who knows about tomorrow.
Things move fast here. My comment was directed to Cyclo, not you.
He has an extreme dose of a common human frailty - the tendency to believe that what you only hope is true really is so - that what you wish for is already a fact. i.e. Cyclo likes Obama, therefore McCain has of necessity backed himself into a corner, without any options other than to lose by a margin even greater than the one he faces now, etc, etc. Review his posts above ... it gets worse and worse...
In a fight, one should always wish for an opponent afflicted with this disease.
Only Cyclo's assertions are valid. :wink:
Argh, I've written at length about how well Obama matches up with McCain, but I'm not finding it back. (If anyone can think of a way to do so that'd be great. It's on this thread I think.)
Brand X wrote:Only Cyclo's assertions are valid. :wink:
The extreme wing of committed Obama supporters, the Obamaniacs, all seem to suffer from this disorder. Roxxxxanne can even fortell the future. (Soz is a serious true beiever, but she appears still open to new facts and aware of the uncertainties that beset all such hopes and endeavors - a wise state of mind.)
okie wrote:georgeob1 wrote:It is probably important to stop short of drinking ALL your own bath water.
Just being open with my opinion, george. It is frustrating to see my candidate try to pretend to have Democrat positions on some things, and criticize his own party. I don't think he can win by criticizing the very people he claims to be running under the banner of. What I say here pales compared to John McCain's insults of his own party.
I still plan to vote for John, as of today. Who knows about tomorrow.
Things move fast here. My comment was directed to Cyclo, not you.
He has an extreme dose of a common human frailty - the tendency to believe that what you only hope is true really is so - that what you wish for is already a fact. i.e. Cyclo likes Obama, therefore McCain has of necessity backed himself into a corner, without any options other than to lose by a margin even greater than the one he faces now, etc, etc. Review his posts above ... it gets worse and worse...
In a fight, one should always wish for an opponent afflicted with this disease.
sozobe wrote:Argh, I've written at length about how well Obama matches up with McCain, but I'm not finding it back. (If anyone can think of a way to do so that'd be great. It's on this thread I think.)
Maybe it is time to close this thread and start an Obama '08 (Part 2) thread so it will be easier to refer back to things between now and the general election.
Oh, because Obama's a black fella. Right.
Cycloptichorn
Brand X wrote:Cycloptichorn wrote:Brand X wrote:The only reason Obama has looked strong is because he's running against the Queen of the Negatives.
If Hillary doesn't get nominated there are loads of her would be voters going over to McGaffe. Then there's another huge portion that will just not be able to go in the booth choose Obama.
Kerry couldn't beat Bush....no way BHO is beating McCain.
Every sentence is an assertion, nothing more.
I doubt that more then 10% of the voters who support Hillary will, in the end, support McCain. And I doubt that McCain will get 100% support from the Republican party, 'specially if he moves to the middle in the general. And I can't help but remember that the self-identification as Republican is the lowest level of my lifetime.
You're completely wrong, X. I understand the sentiment but McCain is not the guy to win this one.
Cycloptichorn
Tell me how you think the Obama/McCain match up is going to be a better match up for Obama than Kerry was against Bush. I still don't think this country is going to elect Obama if it wouldn't Kerry.
No problem!
First, Bush in 2004 enjoyed a pretty high approval rating amongst the Republican party. There was no Ron Paul faction. There were no significant groups questioning him from the Right. The same cannot be said today. Bush's ratings are in the toilet. Now, Bush is not McCain. But McCain has decided to wed himself to Bush at EVERY OPPORTUNITY. He supports EVERY BUSH POSITION that you can think of, even those which are directly opposite of his earlier positions.
McCain is a bigger flip-flopper then Kerry ever thought of being. Huge. He's changed his position on a whole host of issues, sometimes changing two or three times in the last decade. This is going to look very bad for him in the general. And his ties to Bush and the Bush way of doing things are going to sink him.
Second, the war in 2004 was still quite popular. While there was a determined minority who were against it, the overall approval ratings for the war are light-years higher then they are today. McCain has hitched his wagon to supporting unending war in Iraq. It is a losing position.
Third, Bush enjoyed a tremendous financial advantage over Kerry. The exact opposite will be true in this case.
Fourth, Bush had the support of a strong Republican house and Senate. McCain will not have that support this cycle.
Fifth, McCain has personal scandals that are worse then Bush's. The Keating 5 incident will be brought up. His wife's personal fortunes will be examined in detail. His divorce will be examined in detail. His temper will be examined in detail. He has far more liabilities in this area then Bush had.
Sixth, as I mentioned earlier, self-identification amongst Dems is WAY up and self-identification amongst Republicans is way down. The playing field simply isn't level any longer. Polling generally doesn't show this, b/c pollsters tend to try and balance the numbers of Republicans and Dems in their polls.
Seventh, Obama is far younger then McCain and leads a far more energized base of support. His donor and activist base is tremendous. He is engaging in a massive drive to register new voters for the Fall. It is likely that he will be able to count on several hundreds of thousands of votes in MANY districts and states around the nation that Kerry never could.
Eighth, this cycle is already looking poor for Republicans. Many special elections in heavily Republican districts have gone to the Dems who were running. This is a signal of things to come this Fall. Newt Gingrich was smart enough to recognize this and write an article warning of the doom just yesterday.
Ninth, and perhaps more importantly, McCain isn't very smart. Period. He isn't a strong debater. He apparently is having a difficult time keeping his facts straight - he mis-speaks constantly, having to be reminded by those around him that he has made a mistake. And he has a real lack of command on several issues. He's terrible on Health Care, terrible on the economy, terrible on renewable energy. His only real area of expertise is in the area of foreign relations, and he has chosen to back an extremely unpopular opinion.
Tenth, Obama is a much stronger candidate then Kerry. I don't think anyone is disputing this.
So, to wrap up:
McCain is a weak candidate.
Obama is an exciting and possibly strong candidate, not without issues himself, but not weak by a long shot. He has already demonstrated that he can defeat an extremely well-funded and popular opponent.
The country is tired of the way things have been going and McCain does not represent any sort of change at all. He's essentially the third term of Bush. And he's going to get slaughtered.
In 1980 and 1992 we had candidates who ran on the platform of hope and change in America. They both were successful. Tell me, why don't you think this one will be?
Oh, because Obama's a black fella. Right.
Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Oh, because Obama's a black fella. Right.
Cycloptichorn
I's worse than I thought!!
I see. Not only are all your hopes and wishes necessarily God's will and bound to come to pass, those who disagree with you, and who advocate the other candidate, are necessarily in the grip of irrational racial prejudices (an affliction that, of course, affects none of your compatriots).
None are so blind as those...
In fact you make some good points. However, they are forecasts and not necessarily either correct or all inclusive in terms of what will influence voter behavior in November. We now have poll results (always an imperfect indicator) that suggest a very close race in November. Moreover a lot can happen - in both directions - in the six months that remain until the election. Overall I would give Obama the edge in a forecast right now, but consider Mccain's prospects far from negligable.
However, OK by me if you wish to continue. Carry on !
Cycloptichorn wrote:Brand X wrote:Cycloptichorn wrote:Brand X wrote:The only reason Obama has looked strong is because he's running against the Queen of the Negatives.
If Hillary doesn't get nominated there are loads of her would be voters going over to McGaffe. Then there's another huge portion that will just not be able to go in the booth choose Obama.
Kerry couldn't beat Bush....no way BHO is beating McCain.
Every sentence is an assertion, nothing more.
I doubt that more then 10% of the voters who support Hillary will, in the end, support McCain. And I doubt that McCain will get 100% support from the Republican party, 'specially if he moves to the middle in the general. And I can't help but remember that the self-identification as Republican is the lowest level of my lifetime.
You're completely wrong, X. I understand the sentiment but McCain is not the guy to win this one.
Cycloptichorn
Tell me how you think the Obama/McCain match up is going to be a better match up for Obama than Kerry was against Bush. I still don't think this country is going to elect Obama if it wouldn't Kerry.
No problem!
First, Bush in 2004 enjoyed a pretty high approval rating amongst the Republican party. There was no Ron Paul faction. There were no significant groups questioning him from the Right. The same cannot be said today. Bush's ratings are in the toilet. Now, Bush is not McCain. But McCain has decided to wed himself to Bush at EVERY OPPORTUNITY. He supports EVERY BUSH POSITION that you can think of, even those which are directly opposite of his earlier positions.
McCain is a bigger flip-flopper then Kerry ever thought of being. Huge. He's changed his position on a whole host of issues, sometimes changing two or three times in the last decade. This is going to look very bad for him in the general. And his ties to Bush and the Bush way of doing things are going to sink him.
Second, the war in 2004 was still quite popular. While there was a determined minority who were against it, the overall approval ratings for the war are light-years higher then they are today. McCain has hitched his wagon to supporting unending war in Iraq. It is a losing position.
Third, Bush enjoyed a tremendous financial advantage over Kerry. The exact opposite will be true in this case.
Fourth, Bush had the support of a strong Republican house and Senate. McCain will not have that support this cycle.
Fifth, McCain has personal scandals that are worse then Bush's. The Keating 5 incident will be brought up. His wife's personal fortunes will be examined in detail. His divorce will be examined in detail. His temper will be examined in detail. He has far more liabilities in this area then Bush had.
Sixth, as I mentioned earlier, self-identification amongst Dems is WAY up and self-identification amongst Republicans is way down. The playing field simply isn't level any longer. Polling generally doesn't show this, b/c pollsters tend to try and balance the numbers of Republicans and Dems in their polls.
Seventh, Obama is far younger then McCain and leads a far more energized base of support. His donor and activist base is tremendous. He is engaging in a massive drive to register new voters for the Fall. It is likely that he will be able to count on several hundreds of thousands of votes in MANY districts and states around the nation that Kerry never could.
Eighth, this cycle is already looking poor for Republicans. Many special elections in heavily Republican districts have gone to the Dems who were running. This is a signal of things to come this Fall. Newt Gingrich was smart enough to recognize this and write an article warning of the doom just yesterday.
Ninth, and perhaps more importantly, McCain isn't very smart. Period. He isn't a strong debater. He apparently is having a difficult time keeping his facts straight - he mis-speaks constantly, having to be reminded by those around him that he has made a mistake. And he has a real lack of command on several issues. He's terrible on Health Care, terrible on the economy, terrible on renewable energy. His only real area of expertise is in the area of foreign relations, and he has chosen to back an extremely unpopular opinion.
Tenth, Obama is a much stronger candidate then Kerry. I don't think anyone is disputing this.
So, to wrap up:
McCain is a weak candidate.
Obama is an exciting and possibly strong candidate, not without issues himself, but not weak by a long shot. He has already demonstrated that he can defeat an extremely well-funded and popular opponent.
The country is tired of the way things have been going and McCain does not represent any sort of change at all. He's essentially the third term of Bush. And he's going to get slaughtered.
In 1980 and 1992 we had candidates who ran on the platform of hope and change in America. They both were successful. Tell me, why don't you think this one will be?
Oh, because Obama's a black fella. Right.
Cycloptichorn
I don't do line by line quotes and rebuttals..because it's what anal egos do...and that's not me.
The main thing that you said that makes sense is McCain is not Bush. He may be on the same page as Bush on some things but if this is the Obama strategy in the general it's a loser. Remember how much you were hearing, 'oh gawd not four more years of Bush, there's no way he'll win again'. Obama is a weak candidate once you peep through the hype. So is McCain but not as. I'm not caught in the hype and I don't like McCain...I just see this round as pretty much a repeat of 2004.
Flip-flops are not inherently a deal breaker, it's what the flip-flops are about and how blatantly political they were.
In the general McCain's war plans win over Obama's just like Bush's did I don't care what the polls say.
We don't know how much money will flow for McCain once the general gets underway. Many things have been on hold while the Dems sort out their candidate. Obama will do well for sure but John could get plenty.
Again I don't care what the polls show about who is registered as what. There were plenty of indicators Kerry had it in the bag.
It's true Obama is younger than McCain. :wink:
McCain isn't very smart but neither was Bush...and Kerry was every bit as well spoken and energetic as Obama.
In the general Obama's hype will fade and McCain will be the obvious choice for the masses, sad as that is.
And yes, unfortunately I think Obama's color will be a negative for him.
People do want a change in the way things are done in Washington but no one really expects it so in total all of Obama's change talk means zilch.
McCain isn't so bad. He's just painted himself into a corner by following in lock-step with the stupid f*cks who run the GOP.
It's the GOP that really sucks.
Maybe McCain could call a press conference in a couple weeks and say that he got conked on the head, doesn't remember anything from the past five years or so, and wishes to change his whole platform. Hehehe...
Brand X wrote:Cycloptichorn wrote:Brand X wrote:Cycloptichorn wrote:Brand X wrote:The only reason Obama has looked strong is because he's running against the Queen of the Negatives.
If Hillary doesn't get nominated there are loads of her would be voters going over to McGaffe. Then there's another huge portion that will just not be able to go in the booth choose Obama.
Kerry couldn't beat Bush....no way BHO is beating McCain.
Every sentence is an assertion, nothing more.
I doubt that more then 10% of the voters who support Hillary will, in the end, support McCain. And I doubt that McCain will get 100% support from the Republican party, 'specially if he moves to the middle in the general. And I can't help but remem
ber that the self-identification as Republican is the lowest level of my lifetime.
You're completely wrong, X. I understand the sentiment but McCain is not the guy to win this one.
Cycloptichorn
Tell me how you think the Obama/McCain match up is going to be a better match up for Obama than Kerry was against Bush. I still don't think this country is going to elect Obama if it wouldn't Kerry.
No problem!
First, Bush in 2004 enjoyed a pretty high approval rating amongst the Republican party. There was no Ron Paul faction. There were no significant groups questioning him from the Right. The same cannot be said today. Bush's ratings are in the toilet. Now, Bush is not McCain. But McCain has decided to wed himself to Bush at EVERY OPPORTUNITY. He supports EVERY BUSH POSITION that you can think of, even those which are directly opposite of his earlier positions.
McCain is a bigger flip-flopper then Kerry ever thought of being. Huge. He's changed his position on a whole host of issues, sometimes changing two or three times in the last decade. This is going to look very bad for him in the general. And his ties to Bush and the Bush way of doing things are going to sink him.
Second, the war in 2004 was still quite popular. While there was a determined minority who were against it, the overall approval ratings for the war are light-years higher then they are today. McCain has hitched his wagon to supporting unending war in Iraq. It is a losing position.
Third, Bush enjoyed a tremendous financial advantage over Kerry. The exact opposite will be true in this case.
Fourth, Bush had the support of a strong Republican house and Senate. McCain will not have that support this cycle.
Fifth, McCain has personal scandals that are worse then Bush's. The Keating 5 incident will be brought up. His wife's personal fortunes will be examined in detail. His divorce will be examined in detail. His temper will be examined in detail. He has far more liabilities in this area then Bush had.
Sixth, as I mentioned earlier, self-identification amongst Dems is WAY up and self-identification amongst Republicans is way down. The playing field simply isn't level any longer. Polling generally doesn't show this, b/c pollsters tend to try and balance the numbers of Republicans and Dems in their polls.
Seventh, Obama is far younger then McCain and leads a far more energized base of support. His donor and activist base is tremendous. He is engaging in a massive drive to register new voters for the Fall. It is likely that he will be able to count on several hundreds of thousands of votes in MANY districts and states around the nation that Kerry never could.
Eighth, this cycle is already looking poor for Republicans. Many special elections in heavily Republican districts have gone to the Dems who were running. This is a signal of things to come this Fall. Newt Gingrich was smart enough to recognize this and write an article warning of the doom just yesterday.
Ninth, and perhaps more importantly, McCain isn't very smart. Period. He isn't a strong debater. He apparently is having a difficult time keeping his facts straight - he mis-speaks constantly, having to be reminded by those around him that he has made a mistake. And he has a real lack of command on several issues. He's terrible on Health Care, terrible on the economy, terrible on renewable energy. His only real area of expertise is in the area of foreign relations, and he has chosen to back an extremely unpopular opinion.
Tenth, Obama is a much stronger candidate then Kerry. I don't think anyone is disputing this.
So, to wrap up:
McCain is a weak candidate.
Obama is an exciting and possibly strong candidate, not without issues himself, but not weak by a long shot. He has already demonstrated that he can defeat an extremely well-funded and popular opponent.
The country is tired of the way things have been going and McCain does not represent any sort of change at all. He's essentially the third term of Bush. And he's going to get slaughtered.
In 1980 and 1992 we had candidates who ran on the platform of hope and change in America. They both were successful. Tell me, why don't you think this one will be?
Oh, because Obama's a black fella. Right.
Cycloptichorn
I don't do line by line quotes and rebuttals..because it's what anal egos do...and that's not me.
The main thing that you said that makes sense is McCain is not Bush. He may be on the same page as Bush on some things but if this is the Obama strategy in the general it's a loser. Remember how much you were hearing, 'oh gawd not four more years of Bush, there's no way he'll win again'. Obama is a weak candidate once you peep through the hype. So is McCain but not as. I'm not caught in the hype and I don't like McCain...I just see this round as pretty much a repeat of 2004.
Flip-flops are not inherently a deal breaker, it's what the flip-flops are about and how blatantly political they were.
In the general McCain's war plans win over Obama's just like Bush's did I don't care what the polls say.
We don't know how much money will flow for McCain once the general gets underway. Many things have been on hold while the Dems sort out their candidate. Obama will do well for sure but John could get plenty.
Again I don't care what the polls show about who is registered as what. There were plenty of indicators Kerry had it in the bag.
It's true Obama is younger than McCain. :wink:
McCain isn't very smart but neither was Bush...and Kerry was every bit as well spoken and energetic as Obama.
In the general Obama's hype will fade and McCain will be the obvious choice for the masses, sad as that is.
And yes, unfortunately I think Obama's color will be a negative for him.
People do want a change in the way things are done in Washington but no one really expects it so in total all of Obama's change talk means zilch.
Empty assertions, once again.
You 'don't care' what the polls say. That's a stupid position. Polling on the Iraq war issue has been solidly against McCain's position for 2 years. His position is not a winning position. It is by definition a position supported by an ever-growing minority of our population.
McCain's flip-flops are about economics, torture, and the war. Think those will be important issues this cycle? I think they might.
It isn't enough to assert that Obama is a 'weak candidate.' He just beat a strong candidate, so how did he do that, if he is weak? He is polling above McCain in many polls; how the hell is a weakling doing that?
Cycloptichorn
That you are unable to get off your Obama high horse to see the big picture, Cyclo, is not my problem.
You do not corner the market on anything.
Obama is weaker than Kerry ever was, it's so easy to see without Obama colored glasses.
McCain will have every vote Bush got plus more independents. That's enough.
Again, Obama isn't nominated yet... you probably don't realize that either.
