Cycloptichorn wrote:I just need to see actual arguments from the other side in order to take it seriously. I haven't seen any real breakdowns of what McCain's path to victory is, from anyone, including yourself.
Here's a question: If McCain is a strong candidate who has what it takes to win, where is his fundraising? Another question: why is McCain not winning the national election poll results decisively, given that the Dems are universally agreed to be divided and weak at the moment?
Fundraising is a problem and it is important that he improves this situation fairly promptly. However, with six months to go he has many options here, and as the Democrat primary winds down, the two poles in this struggle will have ample incentive to act on their self interests.
The national polis indicate a very close race between Mccain and either Democrat candidate. You seem to be implying that there is something additive about the poll results for the Democtat candidates, or that the presence of parallel comparisons somehow dilutes or diminishes the ourcomes for them. I don't understand or accept this principle, and instead interpret the polls as they are presented. As we have already seen, Poll results are an imperfect indicator, and subject to change. However we have for the past several months seen a fairly steady pattern of poll predictions of a close race, even with some gains for McCain over the past six weeks or so. Much can change over the six months ahead before the vote, but I take the polls as a reliable indicator that we will see a fairly close race - stated another way - a race that neither party has yet won.
Cycloptichorn wrote:I have no crystal ball and cannot tell the future. I am not a wild-eyed child who is going off of hope and dreams and ignoring the reality of the situation. I know that Obama will have to work hard to over-come his problems for this Fall. But McCain is a seriously and heavily flawed candidate from a party who currently isn't very popular. It's extremely difficult for me to understand why anyone thinks he is going to win.
I agree about McCain's weaknesses, however we may disagree about what is behind your "heavily flawed" and "currently isn't very popular" phrases. McCain may not inspire the remarkably intense excitement that Obama clearly does among some voters. However, on Nov. 7 the issue will be determined largely on the basis of which candidate the voter has more(as opposed to less) confidence in; whom he mistrusts the least; and whose platform appeals most to him/her.
When the Democrat primary is finally settled the focus of the campaign on respective policy difference will increase: in addition, after the respective conventions, the party platforms will be available for comparison. Republicans will certainly face some issues over the war that will hurt them among many voters; just as will the promised tax increases hurt the Democrats among the same voters and others as well.
You have noted the likely high turnout among Black voters and the overwhelming support Obama has been getting lately from them. Clearly this is an important benefit for Obama. However, the perception of this fact is likely to breed a counter reaction among some uncommitted "Non Black" voters (this is a sop just to keep Diest quiet.), and if it is only one-tenth as effective as Black support for Obama it will cancel it out, just based on the relative numbers. This is an area that, in the wake of the Wright matter, Obama has some real vulnerability. Suggestions that this would necessarily be a manifestation of latent White (excuse me, Non-Black) racism must take into account that, if so, it involves Black racism as well.
McCain runs the risk that perceptions of age and his relative rhetorical deficiencies, compared to Obama could hurt him. In turn, Obama runs the risk that the contrast between the soaring (and somewhat repititious) quality of his rhetoric and the thin character of both his personal record (resume) and specific policy proposals will hurt him.
We have a long time ahead of us and miles to go in the race. I believe the outcome cannot yet be predicted with reliability.
