blatham
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 10:54 am
georgeob1 wrote:
blatham wrote:
nimh wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
It was truly insulting to those who were the subject of the remarks

Says someone speaking with the expertise about the lives of blue-collar, small-town Pennsylvania folk that a former government and business executive naturally would have... :wink:

In the meantime, the polls are not showing Obama's remarks to have any effect at all, on balance. So it looks like the only offense taken is by elitist, richly paid professional media pundits and politicians, in their role-playing of how they imagine yer typical blue-collar heartland to feel. Maybe they should get out more.


Average americans ought to get down on their knees and thank George Will, Bill Kristol, Sean Hannity, Charles Krauthammer, Fred Barnes and georgeob...all with their fingers and lives so closely tuned to the simple folk of Pennsylvania. And each with their personal histories so rich in dedicated and selfless, shirtsleeves-rolled-up community outreach programs too. Precisely the fellows to interpret the spirit and daily lives and thoughts of troubled small town Americans. Nothing...nothing at all...elitist about these boys in their presumptions of how small town americans think or ought to think because of their (almost too close for comfort) connections to them average folks who, it is hoped, have better personal hygiene habits that in the old days.


Sad to see Nimh & Blatham resorting to personal attacks in response to an obvious interpretation of the Obama remarks and a restrained forecast about their likely effect.

I'm flattered by the association with Kristol & Krauthammer, but I'm not too keen on the rest.

The fact is I was brought up in a Democrat household - my father was a long-term Democrat Congressman from Michigan (Detroit) - truly the apex of what is now the blue collar rust belt. I don't suggest that necessarily makes me a member of the tribe, but rather that I do have close knowledge of what I was talking about. I too was insulted by Obama's foolish remarks, and saddened to see him toadying up to a bunch of San Francisco loonie liberals.


Oh come on george. Remember how you recently described Mike Huckabee? You drew him as a character out of HeeHaw. A charge of elitism against Obama coming from yourself or any of those other names I mentioned is deeply ironic. When's the last time Kristol went bowling or to a pub in small town America, do ya figure?

Each of those people I noted (with perhaps the exception of yourself) are millionaires or multi-millionaires who live in DC or New York's upper west side. Most of them (Hannity the obvious exception) have elite educations. All of you, I think, have lived lives of unique priviledge and with connections to the highest levels of power in America. How many blue collar Pennsylvanians get to hobnob with Cheney and Buckley there in the California forest each year, george?

That any of you guys might presume to speak for the folks you feel were insulted - that you presently understand their daily lives and their sentiments - looks pretty delusional to me. You immediately make yourselves guilty of the elitism you are charging is the issue.

But I'm certainly not surprised to see this from you or these others. It's an ideological centerpiece which you guys are either amazingly blind to or simply repeat whenever the opportunity arises so as to carry forward this element of the ideology.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 10:55 am
Re: Obama '08?
H2O_MAN wrote:
sozobe wrote:
Obama is likely to a) get a big bump once the nomination is decided (if it's decided in his favor) and b) do really well against McCain in a head-to-head campaign.


No doubt he will get a bounce and he will do well in a head-to-head
campaign, but neither of these will be enough to win on election day.

The Obama ~ McCain debates are going to be must see TV Cool


So, again, are you up for a wager here, Mr. Certainty? Five hundred ought to demonstrate your manliness.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 11:33 am
Re: Mr. Certainty?
blatham wrote:
H2O_MAN wrote:
sozobe wrote:
Obama is likely to a) get a big bump once the nomination is decided (if it's decided in his favor) and b) do really well against McCain in a head-to-head campaign.


No doubt he will get a bounce and he will do well in a head-to-head
campaign, but neither of these will be enough to win on election day.

The Obama ~ McCain debates are going to be must see TV Cool


So, again, are you up for a wager here, Mr. Certainty? Five hundred ought to demonstrate your manliness.


iu'm t6png thid rre3p-wojhnew w8i6thn m y jmqaznliki8n erds



Wow, that was hard.

Translation: I'm typing this response with my manliness.
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 11:40 am
Butrflynet wrote:
real life wrote:

No, I guess I don't get any 'memos'.

My comments reflect only my own view, not someone else's.

What concerns me is the liberal disdain and outright hostility for those who say what they think.

If liberals have their way with 'hate speech' laws and other such, scenes like this could be coming soon to a town near you...


Real life, aren't you one of the people who have been preaching "disdain and outright hostility" for Obama because of Reverend Wright's "saying what he thinks" during his sermons because they were full of "hate speech?"

You're one of the people who have been pointing to Obama in disbelief when he says his ideology reflects his own views and not someone elses.

Have you become one of those liberal elitists?


The difference between my position on Jeremiah Wright, and the liberal, PC, no 'hate speech' position that I referred to in the articles I posted is very simple.

Are you ready?

I have not proposed making Jeremiah Wright's words illegal.

Obama's association with Wright is legal. I have simply said that it's one of many good reasons not to vote for him:

--- He lied that he didn't know what Wright (at the time a member of the campaign, also his 'close friend, mentor and advisor') preached publicly from the pulpit

--- He lied that Wright had 'acknowledged' that his racist remarks were 'offensive and inappropriate'

--- He revealed that he holds some of the same racist attitudes , referring to 'the typical white person' that utters racial slurs

--- He lied about his own grandmother uttering racial remarks

--- He associates with racists like Jeremiah Wright and James Meeks

--- He accuses Pennsylvanians of 'clinging to antipathy to those that aren't like them'
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 11:49 am
'Hunters & Shooters' endorse Obama, group says he supports gun rights by Nick Juliano
Published: Wednesday April 16, 2008

Less than a week after coming under fire for saying small-town Pennsylvanians "cling to" gun rights, Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of a pro-gun association that has backed Democratic candidates in the past.

The American Hunters & Shooters Association said Obama's views of the 2nd Amendment have been unfairly criticized and its endorsement comes as Obama's opponents are characterizing him as an "elitist" and condescending towards gun-owners.

The group sets itself apart from the "more extreme" elements of the pro-gun lobby like the National Rifle Association and Gun Owners of America. Unlike them, AHSA favors some gun-control measures like background checks and required safety courses for concealed weapons permits. (The NRA has accused the group of being a front for the anti-gun lobby.)

Ray Schoenke, the hunters association's president, cited Obama's support of an amendment to a Department of Homeland Security funding bill that would prevent the government from confiscating citizens' guns during an emergency. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Obama's opponent in the Democratic primary, and 16 other senators voted against the amendment.

"She turned her back on America's gun owners," Schoenke said during a conference call organized by the Obama campaign Wednesday.

Schoenke said the group reached out to the Obama campaign several weeks ago, before the recent controversy surrounding his comments about small-town voters. In announcing their support in the midst of the controversy, though, the group hoped to "set the record straight," about Obama's support of an individual's right to gun ownership, he said.

"We understand that the gun issue is going to be very important in this election," said Bob Ricker, the group's executive director, citing an ongoing Supreme Court case regarding a handgun ban in Washington, DC. "Up until this time, the candidates haven't really been willing to talk about guns."
0 Replies
 
fishin
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 12:06 pm
blueflame1 wrote:
(The NRA has accused the group of being a front for the anti-gun lobby.)



With good reason... Schoenke has been a financial supporter of HCI/The Brady Campaign for years and John Rosenthal, who sits on the AHSA board of directors is a co-founder of "Stop Handgun Violence". Both organizations have adviocated for the banning of private ownership of firearms in the past.

AHSA's endorsement of Obama isn't going to garner him any more support from gun owner's than he already has.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 12:15 pm
blatham wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
blatham wrote:
nimh wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
It was truly insulting to those who were the subject of the remarks

Says someone speaking with the expertise about the lives of blue-collar, small-town Pennsylvania folk that a former government and business executive naturally would have... :wink:

In the meantime, the polls are not showing Obama's remarks to have any effect at all, on balance. So it looks like the only offense taken is by elitist, richly paid professional media pundits and politicians, in their role-playing of how they imagine yer typical blue-collar heartland to feel. Maybe they should get out more.


Average americans ought to get down on their knees and thank George Will, Bill Kristol, Sean Hannity, Charles Krauthammer, Fred Barnes and georgeob...all with their fingers and lives so closely tuned to the simple folk of Pennsylvania. And each with their personal histories so rich in dedicated and selfless, shirtsleeves-rolled-up community outreach programs too. Precisely the fellows to interpret the spirit and daily lives and thoughts of troubled small town Americans. Nothing...nothing at all...elitist about these boys in their presumptions of how small town americans think or ought to think because of their (almost too close for comfort) connections to them average folks who, it is hoped, have better personal hygiene habits that in the old days.


Sad to see Nimh & Blatham resorting to personal attacks in response to an obvious interpretation of the Obama remarks and a restrained forecast about their likely effect.

I'm flattered by the association with Kristol & Krauthammer, but I'm not too keen on the rest.

The fact is I was brought up in a Democrat household - my father was a long-term Democrat Congressman from Michigan (Detroit) - truly the apex of what is now the blue collar rust belt. I don't suggest that necessarily makes me a member of the tribe, but rather that I do have close knowledge of what I was talking about. I too was insulted by Obama's foolish remarks, and saddened to see him toadying up to a bunch of San Francisco loonie liberals.


Oh come on george. Remember how you recently described Mike Huckabee? You drew him as a character out of HeeHaw. A charge of elitism against Obama coming from yourself or any of those other names I mentioned is deeply ironic. When's the last time Kristol went bowling or to a pub in small town America, do ya figure?

Each of those people I noted (with perhaps the exception of yourself) are millionaires or multi-millionaires who live in DC or New York's upper west side. Most of them (Hannity the obvious exception) have elite educations. All of you, I think, have lived lives of unique priviledge and with connections to the highest levels of power in America. How many blue collar Pennsylvanians get to hobnob with Cheney and Buckley there in the California forest each year, george?

That any of you guys might presume to speak for the folks you feel were insulted - that you presently understand their daily lives and their sentiments - looks pretty delusional to me. You immediately make yourselves guilty of the elitism you are charging is the issue.

But I'm certainly not surprised to see this from you or these others. It's an ideological centerpiece which you guys are either amazingly blind to or simply repeat whenever the opportunity arises so as to carry forward this element of the ideology.


Adding that Dowd today is equally guilty.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 12:19 pm
Quote:
"But here are the two remaining Democratic candidates, Obama by speaking carelessly and Clinton by piling on shamelessly, doing all they can to make it easy for Republicans to pretend one more time that they are the salt of the earth."
E. J. Dionne
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 12:29 pm
Bruce Springsteen endorses Obama

Dear Friends and Fans:

LIke most of you, I've been following the campaign and I have now seen and heard enough to know where I stand. Senator Obama, in my view, is head and shoulders above the rest.

He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President. He speaks to the America I've envisioned in my music for the past 35 years, a generous nation with a citizenry willing to tackle nuanced and complex problems, a country that's interested in its collective destiny and in the potential of its gathered spirit. A place where "...nobody crowds you, and nobody goes it alone."

At the moment, critics have tried to diminish Senator Obama through the exaggeration of certain of his comments and relationships. While these matters are worthy of some discussion, they have been ripped out of the context and fabric of the man's life and vision, so well described in his excellent book, Dreams From My Father, often in order to distract us from discussing the real issues: war and peace, the fight for economic and racial justice, reaffirming our Constitution, and the protection and enhancement of our environment.

After the terrible damage done over the past eight years, a great American reclamation project needs to be undertaken. I believe that Senator Obama is the best candidate to lead that project and to lead us into the 21st Century with a renewed sense of moral purpose and of ourselves as Americans.

Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for President.

Bruce Springsteen

http://brucespringsteen.net/news/index.html
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 01:03 pm
kickycan wrote:


Dear Friends and Fans:

LIke most of you, I've been following the campaign and I have now seen and heard enough to know where I stand. Senator Obama, in my view, is head and shoulders above the rest.

He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President.


I used to like The BOSS until I saw him live that is... not very good.



As for Obama, what has he done prior to running for president?
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 01:33 pm
Michelle Obama on Colbert...
http://www.crooksandliars.com/
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 01:46 pm
H2O_MAN wrote:
kickycan wrote:


Dear Friends and Fans:

LIke most of you, I've been following the campaign and I have now seen and heard enough to know where I stand. Senator Obama, in my view, is head and shoulders above the rest.

He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President.


I used to like The BOSS until I saw him live that is... not very good.



As for Obama, what has he done prior to running for president?


I feel the same way about the BOSS.

as for other stuff Obama's done, here are a few things...

-Obama passed legislation with Republican Senator Jim Talent to give gas stations a tax credit for installing E85 ethanol refueling pumps. The tax credit covers 30 percent of the costs of switching one or more traditional petroleum pumps to E85, which is an 85 percent ethanol/15 percent gasoline blend.

-After a number of inmates on death row were found innocent, Senator Obama worked with law enforcement officials to require the videotaping of interrogations and confessions in all capital cases.

-His first law was passed with Republican Tom Coburn, a measure to rebuild trust in government by allowing every American to go online and see how and where every dime of their tax dollars is spent.

-Obama created the Illinois Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income working families in 2000 and successfully sponsored a measure to make the credit permanent in 2003. The law offered about $105 million in tax relief over three years.

-Obama joined forces with former U.S. Sen. Paul Simon (D-IL) to pass the toughest campaign finance law in Illinois history. The legislation banned the personal use of campaign money by Illinois legislators and banned gifts from lobbyists. Before the law was passed, one organization ranked Illinois worst among 50 states for its campaign finance regulations.

-As a member of the Veterans' Affairs Committee, Senator Obama has fought to help Illinois veterans get the disability pay they were promised, while working to prepare the VA for the return of the thousands of veterans who will need care after Iraq and Afghanistan.

-He traveled to Russia with Republican Dick Lugar to begin a new generation of non-proliferation efforts designed to find and secure deadly weapons around the world.

-Obama has been a leading advocate for protecting the right to vote, helping to reauthorize the Voting Rights Act and leading the opposition against discriminatory barriers to voting.

- In the U.S. Senate, Obama introduced the STOP FRAUD Act to increase penalties for mortgage fraud and provide more protections for low-income homebuyers, well before the current subprime crisis began.

-Obama sponsored legislation to combat predatory payday loans, and he also was credited with lobbying the state to more closely regulate some of the most egregious predatory lending practices.

-Barack Obama introduced the Patriot Employer Act of 2007 to provide a tax credit to companies that maintain or increase the number of full-time workers in America relative to those outside the US; maintain their corporate headquarters in America; pay decent wages; prepare workers for retirement; provide health insurance; and support employees who serve in the military.

-Obama worked to pass a number of laws in Illinois and Washington to improve the health of women. His accomplishments include creating a task force on cervical cancer, providing greater access to breast and cervical cancer screenings, and helping improve prenatal and premature birth services.

-Obama has introduced and helped pass bipartisan legislation to limit the abuse of no-bid federal contracts.

-Obama and Senator Feingold (D-WI) took on both parties and proposed ethics legislation that was described as the "gold standard" for reform. It was because of their leadership that ending subsidized corporate jet travel, mandating disclosure of lobbyists' bundling of contributions, and enacting strong new restrictions of lobbyist-sponsored trips became part of the final ethics bill that was signed into law.

Before that, he was a civil rights lawyer and a community organizer in Chicago for about ten or fifteen years.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 01:47 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Sad to see Nimh & Blatham resorting to personal attacks in response to an obvious interpretation of the Obama remarks

Are you kidding me, George?

First off, there was nothing "obvious" about your interpretation. It may be one that the talking heads on TV have repeated ad infinitum, bloviating as they are prone to do, but so far there's just little evidence that it's actually true.

The polls, at least, are showing no evidence of many people having taken offense or caring much, neither in Pennsylvania or nationwide.

Even the anecdotal evidence you get when field reporters decide to go ask some "ordinary people" - whatever that is worth (and that's not much) - by and large just found that Republicans and Hillary supporters will express how deeply insulted they are, and nobody else cares much. They'll say something like, well he was stupid to say it but I can also see the point, or they'll complain about how stupid the whole thing is and why cant politicians talk about important stuff.

Meanwhile, a "personal attack"? When you confidently postulate how Pennsylvania blue-collar workers feel, is it a "personal attack" to point out that, ehm, maybe a prosperous, Republican, retired executive could do with acknowledging that he may not be the best person to tell? A deserved little ribbing on that Not Equal "personal attacks", come on...

Again, you may have an idea of what those working families feel, but considering where you're coming from, it doesnt count for much more than, say, Blatham's feelings about it. Isnt it better to defer to the data in such cases, or acknowledge that we really dont have a clue?

Sorry, but right now you sound a little like Tim Russert, always emphasising how once upon a time he came from Buffalo whenever he assumes, from his long-standing, royally-paid, elite Beltway perch, to know what the regular Joe feels. Now normally you're skeptical enough to see through such pundits' breathless hyping of trivialities in this 24/7 news age. Maybe your aversion to the Dem candidate this time made it too tempting to buy into the hype?
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 02:12 pm
Now, if Kristol, Krauthammer, Hannity, george etc were to bring their exquisitely tuned and sensitive word/sentiment nerve-endings to the following....

Quote:
Netanyahu: 9/11 Was Good For Israel
By M.J. Rosenberg - April 16, 2008, 3:31PM
In a speech yesterday, leader of the Israeli opposition, Binyamin Netanyahu, said that Israel faces many problems but that not everything is bleak.

"We are benefiting from one thing that happened, which is the terror attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and the Americans' battle in Iraq. This changed US public opinion significantly in our favor."

Netanyahu's remarks echoed those he made on September 11, 2001 when he said about the day's attacks: "It's very good. Well, not very good, but it will generate immediate sympathy.''

He predicted that the attacks would ''strengthen the bond between our two peoples, because we've experienced terror over so many decades, but the United States has now experienced a massive hemorrhaging of terror.''

Pretty amazing talk for a leader of an allied country although happily not representative of Israelis at large. Still, Netanyahu may become Prime Minister again so this is worth noting. Also, Netanyahu is every neoconservatives favorite Israeli, probably John McCain's too. Feith, Perle, Krauthammer, Bolton, Kristol, Wurmser, Podhoretz (ad nauseam) consider Netanyahu a hero and a mentor.

And this hero and mentor thinks 9/11 was "very good. Well not very good" but good enough. All the more reason that we have to get these neocons far, far away from the levers of power after 1-20-09.

9/11 was good. Iraq ia good. Iran, well, it's just a dream...so far.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/16/netanyahu_911_good_for_israel/
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 02:21 pm
From kicky's list: -Obama created the Illinois Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income working families in 2000 and successfully sponsored a measure to make the credit permanent in 2003. The law offered about $105 million in tax relief over three years.

What a grand idea; give tax breaks to the poor! He knows who needs more money to feed their families, keep their homes, and pay for the higher cost of fuel.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 02:24 pm
The only reason Hillary feels insulted is because Obama is now ahead of her in PA. We'll be seeing more desperation from Hillary till Tuesday.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 02:25 pm
kickycan wrote:
H2O_MAN wrote:
kickycan wrote:


Dear Friends and Fans:

LIke most of you, I've been following the campaign and I have now seen and heard enough to know where I stand. Senator Obama, in my view, is head and shoulders above the rest.

He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President.


I used to like The BOSS until I saw him live that is... not very good.



As for Obama, what has he done prior to running for president?


I feel the same way about the BOSS.

as for other stuff Obama's done, here are a few things...

-Obama passed legislation with Republican Senator Jim Talent to give gas stations a tax credit for installing E85 ethanol refueling pumps. The tax credit covers 30 percent of the costs of switching one or more traditional petroleum pumps to E85, which is an 85 percent ethanol/15 percent gasoline blend.

-After a number of inmates on death row were found innocent, Senator Obama worked with law enforcement officials to require the videotaping of interrogations and confessions in all capital cases.

-His first law was passed with Republican Tom Coburn, a measure to rebuild trust in government by allowing every American to go online and see how and where every dime of their tax dollars is spent.

-Obama created the Illinois Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income working families in 2000 and successfully sponsored a measure to make the credit permanent in 2003. The law offered about $105 million in tax relief over three years.

-Obama joined forces with former U.S. Sen. Paul Simon (D-IL) to pass the toughest campaign finance law in Illinois history. The legislation banned the personal use of campaign money by Illinois legislators and banned gifts from lobbyists. Before the law was passed, one organization ranked Illinois worst among 50 states for its campaign finance regulations.

-As a member of the Veterans' Affairs Committee, Senator Obama has fought to help Illinois veterans get the disability pay they were promised, while working to prepare the VA for the return of the thousands of veterans who will need care after Iraq and Afghanistan.

-He traveled to Russia with Republican Dick Lugar to begin a new generation of non-proliferation efforts designed to find and secure deadly weapons around the world.

-Obama has been a leading advocate for protecting the right to vote, helping to reauthorize the Voting Rights Act and leading the opposition against discriminatory barriers to voting.

- In the U.S. Senate, Obama introduced the STOP FRAUD Act to increase penalties for mortgage fraud and provide more protections for low-income homebuyers, well before the current subprime crisis began.

-Obama sponsored legislation to combat predatory payday loans, and he also was credited with lobbying the state to more closely regulate some of the most egregious predatory lending practices.

-Barack Obama introduced the Patriot Employer Act of 2007 to provide a tax credit to companies that maintain or increase the number of full-time workers in America relative to those outside the US; maintain their corporate headquarters in America; pay decent wages; prepare workers for retirement; provide health insurance; and support employees who serve in the military.

-Obama worked to pass a number of laws in Illinois and Washington to improve the health of women. His accomplishments include creating a task force on cervical cancer, providing greater access to breast and cervical cancer screenings, and helping improve prenatal and premature birth services.

-Obama has introduced and helped pass bipartisan legislation to limit the abuse of no-bid federal contracts.

-Obama and Senator Feingold (D-WI) took on both parties and proposed ethics legislation that was described as the "gold standard" for reform. It was because of their leadership that ending subsidized corporate jet travel, mandating disclosure of lobbyists' bundling of contributions, and enacting strong new restrictions of lobbyist-sponsored trips became part of the final ethics bill that was signed into law.

Before that, he was a civil rights lawyer and a community organizer in Chicago for about ten or fifteen years.


OK, he has had a finger or even a hand in a few bits of legislation, but
his resume for the position of president of this country is not that strong.

I don't dislike the guy, I just think he isn't the right guy for the job at this time.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 02:28 pm
I wanted to run down the latest polling data from Pennsylvania and how it has changed since polls from before the "bitter" flap:


PPP
4/14-15/08 (compared with 4/7-8/08)

42% (-4) Clinton
45% (+3) Obama

Rasmussen
4/14/08 (compared to 4/7/08)

50% (+2) Clinton
41% (-2) Obama

Survey USA
4/12-14/08 (compared with 4/5-7/08)

54% (-2) Clinton
40% (+2) Obama

Strategic Vision
4/11-13/08 (compared with 4/4-6/08)

49% (+2) Clinton
40% (-2) Obama

ARG
4/11-13/08 (compared with 4/5-6/08)

57% (+12) Clinton
37% (-8) Obama

Quinnipiac University
4/9-4/13/08 (compared with 4/3-6/08)

50% (no ch.) Clinton
44% (no ch.) Obama

Franklin & Marshall College
4/8-13/08 (compared with 3/11-16/08)

49% (-2) Clinton
42% (+7) Obama

In short: no change in Obama's numbers. At most one could hypothesise that "bittergate" broke Obama's climb in the polls; but that would ignore the fact that this break already showed up before the "bitter" flap.


N.B. Note of caution to fellow Obama supporters

Notice how Obama's numbers all fall within a fairly narrow range: 37-45% (and if you discount the always dodgy ARG, 40-45%).

Hillary's numbers on the other hand are all over the place: 42-57%.

That's possible because of another correlation: the less undecideds a poll has, the higher Hillary's numbers. Or: the pollsters who push their respondents more for an answer, see the undecideds turn to Hillary.

Also with the Bradley effect in mind (some people wont tell pollsters they are going to vote against the black candidate), take into consideration that most undecideds might turn out to be Hillary voters.

Another way to reduce the noise in Hill's numbers is to discount both the ARG and PPP polls - the two outliers in the sequence. Then Hillary's range is down to a five-point spread too: 49-54%, and Obama's at 40-44%. I.e., a Hillary win by close to 10 points?
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 02:30 pm
nimh, I thought I saw in today's newspaper that Obama was a little ahead of Hillary after she had a two-digit lead not that long ago. Maybe, I misread.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Wed 16 Apr, 2008 02:40 pm
See also Gallup's in-depth analysis of the data from its national, daily tracking poll:

Quote:
Obama Support Among "Bitter" Voters Unchanged
No decline in support among low-income, low-education, religious Democrats

Gallup
April 16, 2008

They break down the data by income, education, race, to which extent respondents worry about money, and how religious they are.

In none of the subcategories do the data show any statistically significant change in Obama's support between April 8-10, before the flap, and April 12-14, afterwards.

Gallup concludes:

Quote:
Implications

It certainly appears that, as of April 14 interviewing, Obama's remarks have not hurt him -- either among the Democratic electorate as a whole or among the Democratic constituencies Obama was referring to. Wednesday night's debate may shine a spotlight on those comments and make them known to a wider audience, so the possibility remains that Obama has not completely weathered the storm.

Conceivably, Obama could be hurt more in a general-election context, where voters with the characteristics he describes might already have an inkling to vote Republican, and such remarks could nudge them more in that direction. But Gallup's general-election tracking data -- like that for the Democratic nomination -- have so far shown no deterioration in Obama's standing versus presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
0 Replies
 
 

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