Obama Gains in NC
With Clinton looking past Pennsylvania to North Carolina and Indiana, it's tough to see how she can win the Tarheel state.
Insider Advantage. 3/26. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Obama 49
Clinton 34
"Firewall state" has been the king of clichés during this campaign season, but that term has never applied more than North Carolina does for Clinton. If she loses badly here, regardless of any modest gains in the national delegate count, her candidacy may be done unless her primary victories in Florida and Michigan somehow end up being seated at the national nominating convention.
Most troubling for Clinton is that the trends in our polling of North Carolina show that a modest but significant portion of whites are drifting from Clinton back into the "undecided" column. Twenty percent of whites are undecided."
The problem for Clinton is that for the Democratic primary, the white vote will be skewed heavily by the Research Triangle's "creative class" -- educated professionals who make up a significant chunk of Obama's base. Obama has cleaned up similar places like Seattle, the SF Bay Area, and Austin. Clinton will lose it big. And given that African Americans are expected to make up a third of the primary electorate, I'm seeing a 20-point Obama victory in NC.
Indiana, split between the half that's sort of like Illinois, and the other half that's sort of like Ohio, is more fertile ground for Clinton. But North Carolina? Not a chance.
