Long Campaign Helping Dems?
More Fundamentals That Favor Democrats
by DemFromCT
Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:48:47 AM PDT
Over the weekend we wrote about self-identification as surveyed by Pew (No One Wants To Be A Republican). Yesterday Dan Balz picked up on that and points Kos has been making.
The conventional wisdom that a prolonged race for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton is bad news for their party may be turning on its head.
Figures released by Pennsylvania's Department of State on Monday night showed that Democrats have topped 4 million registered voters, the first time either party in the state has crossed that threshold. Democrats have added 161,000 to their rolls, a gain of about 4 percent; Republican registration has dipped about 1 percent, to 3.2 million.
That is consistent with the pattern since the beginning of the year: Democratic turnout in primaries and caucuses has topped Republican turnout, often by huge differences.
In Ohio, 2.2 million voters participated in the Democratic primary, compared with 1.1 million in the Republican primary. In Texas, 2.9 million voters turned out for the Democratic primary and 1.4 million for the GOP primary. Even in Florida, where the Republican primary was one of the most hotly contested of the year and the Democratic primary featured no active campaigning by the candidates, GOP turnout was only marginally higher: 1.9 million vs. 1.7 million.
These turnout figures match what pollsters have found as they have surveyed the electorate throughout the year: The gap between Democratic and Republican identification has grown dramatically.
And speaking of Ohio, one issue dominates:
1 IN 10 OHIOANS
Food stamps double since '01
But price of food means they don't go as far now
Caseloads have been rising steadily in the past seven years, said Brian Harter, spokesman for the state agency which oversees the food-stamp program.
"Look at unemployment during this time," he said.
Ohio's jobless rate is 5.3 percent, up from 4.4 percent in 2001.
"The economy and loss of manufacturing jobs are at the root of what's going on. But lately (it's) the rising cost of transportation and food -- people who were barely getting by, are not getting by," said Jack Frech, director of the Athens County Department of Job and Family Services.
And this means voting Republican? Bloomberg News doesn't think so.
Democratic Nominee Will Have Edge in Fall Even If Economy Turns
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Seven months before Election Day, rising home foreclosures, shrinking financial assets and gasoline approaching a record $4 a gallon are daily reminders that the U.S. economy may be the worst in almost 30 years.
Even if a recovery begins this summer, Americans won't feel the difference until much later. That's why when the polls open Nov. 4, the Republicans, who have controlled the White House since 2001 and Congress for much of that time, will have ceded a key advantage to the Democrats.
Recessions shaped four presidential elections in the past half-century -- in 1960, 1976, 1980 and 1992. Each time, the candidate from the party trying to retake the White House won. A model that uses economic data to predict presidential race outcomes has the Democrats getting 52 percent of the votes cast for the two major party candidates, says Ray Fair, the Yale University professor who developed it.
``The economic environment, based on all of the data I've ever seen, is the most powerful indicator of how the party in power will do,'' says Jody Powell, a top aide to Jimmy Carter. He speaks from experience, having worked on Carter's victorious 1976 presidential campaign and his 1980 loss to Ronald Reagan, which was flanked by two recessions.
``The economy will likely be the dominant issue'' this year, Powell says.
Republicans in the media have been wetting themselves over the battle for the Democratic nomination (all but settled) thinking it helps John McCain. Between McCain's albatross George Bush, the economy and virtually every other issue that matters to Democrats and independents (Republicans will not decide the election; they are too few to matter), they're as out of touch as usual. National polls are essentially tied, but at this point in time don't begin to tell the story of what is going to happen in November.
Watch the polls for fun (once the party solidifies around a Democratic nominee, they will change), but the fundamentals going into the fall will be a lot harder for Republicans to deal with than is being reported.
