Obama '08?

This is what Richardson said on Sunday:

Quote:

"We have to have a positive campaign after Tuesday. Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee," New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democratic superdelegate himself, said on CBS's Face The Nation Sunday.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4385756&page=1

Guess who has the most delegates after Tuesday? Numbers vary, but I don't think it could be called anything but "a clear lead."

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sozobe wrote:

This is what Richardson said on Sunday:

Quote:
"We have to have a positive campaign after Tuesday. Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee," New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democratic superdelegate himself, said on CBS's Face The Nation Sunday.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4385756&page=1

Guess who has the most delegates after Tuesday? Numbers vary, but I don't think it could be called anything but "a clear lead."

Richardson wants to be president so bad he can taste it. He was actively soliciting the Clintons until Hillary's campaign went sour and since then he has been withholding his endorsement waiting to see who emerges as the clear leader. Now he needs for there to be a leader so he can endorse that leader and start campaigning for the Veep spot. Just IMO of course, but I've watched Richardson for a very long time now.

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I've said this before but its worth repeating...
Given a choice between Obama and Hillary, I will vote for Obama.
Not because I think he is the best man for the job, but because I think he is a better candidate then Hillary.

My personal opinion is that he needs to spend 4 more years in the Senate, to gain a little more national experience, then run again in 2012.
Right now, I think McCain is the best choice, but not necessarily the best person for the job.
That would have been Evan Bayh (D.-IN).

What I see happening to the dem party is that it is getting so fractured by this race.
If Hillary wins the nomination, I cant help but wonder if the young, first time voters that are so hot for Obama will support her.
Somehow, I dont think they will.

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Obama regains ground in Texas caucuses

Quote:

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama regained lost ground in the fierce competition for Democratic convention delegates on Wednesday based on results from the Texas caucuses, partially negating the impact of Hillary Rodham Clinton's string of comeback primary victories.

That left Obama with an overall lead of 101 delegates, 1,562-1,461 as the rivals look ahead to the final dozen contests on the calendar.

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Well, as I said last night, I'm certainly not happy with the results of the election. Obama couldn't make up the gap in TX and he didn't come close enough in OH either.

But, he didn't lose by a lot; he didn't fall behind by a lot. Which brings up an important point: he's still ahead by a significant margin. Obama's camp is pointing out that while 1/3 of the remaining delegates were handed out last night Hillary only gained about 10 or so on him.

Missed an opportunity tho last night. Can't do that and expect to win the game in the end.

I'm still cautiously optimistic.

Cycloptichorn

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

Well, as I said last night, I'm certainly not happy with the results of the election. Obama couldn't make up the gap in TX and he didn't come close enough in OH either.

But, he didn't lose by a lot; he didn't fall behind by a lot. Which brings up an important point: he's still ahead by a significant margin. Obama's camp is pointing out that while 1/3 of the remaining delegates were handed out last night Hillary only gained about 10 or so on him.

Missed an opportunity tho last night. Can't do that and expect to win the game in the end.

I'm still cautiously optimistic.

Cycloptichorn

Whoever wins in Pa will win the nomination.

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I think PA is pretty strong for Hillary. A lot of similarities there with Ohio, and a lot of old school loyal Democrats who will go for the name they know. Not much youth there. Obama will probably get Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, maybe Harrisburg, and almost nothing in between.

I'm not counting him out but he's got his work cut out for him.

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I don't think we can automatically assume that Michigan and Florida are out of play either. If one or both states actively pursues legal recourse to be seated at the convention, I don't think the Democratic Party can afford to not find some way for that to happen.

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Foxfyre wrote:

I don't think we can automatically assume that Michigan and Florida are out of play either. If one or both states actively pursues legal recourse to be seated at the convention, I don't think the Democratic Party can afford to not find some way for that to happen.

They don't have any legal recourse; that ship has already sailed. At this point it would be a re-vote or re-caucus to get seated.

Cycloptichorn

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:
I don't think we can automatically assume that Michigan and Florida are out of play either. If one or both states actively pursues legal recourse to be seated at the convention, I don't think the Democratic Party can afford to not find some way for that to happen.

They don't have any legal recourse; that ship has already sailed. At this point it would be a re-vote or re-caucus to get seated.

Cycloptichorn

Yup. But can you see the Democrats disenfranchising two huge voting blocks like that and not figuring out some way to make that happen?

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PA actually is more encouraging than I'd thought. More college students; more people with degrees (not a lot). There was something else too, lemme see if I can find it back...

Here we go!

http://dickpolman.blogspot.com/2008/03/onward-they-slog.html

Quote:

Pennsylvania will become the new Iowa; with no competing contests, it will be the target of unremitting national attention. And it will be a brutal battlefield. For all the glib comparisons to Ohio, its rustbelt neighbor, there are significant differences that could aid Obama. Pennsylvania has a larger black population than Ohio, larger cities, and a larger student population. In contrast to Texas, it has a small Latino population. It has populous white liberal suburbs around Philadelphia.

But

Quote:

On the other hand (advantage Hillary), it has the second-largest senior electorate in America, behind Florida. It has a large population of lunch-bucket guys, just as in Ohio. And, perhaps most importantly, the Keystone State primary is open only to registered Democrats. Obama-friendly independents need not bother to show up - unless they re-register as Democrats in advance, by the March 24 deadline. It's hard to imagine that these converts will vote in the same numbers as the independents in other states.

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:
I don't think we can automatically assume that Michigan and Florida are out of play either. If one or both states actively pursues legal recourse to be seated at the convention, I don't think the Democratic Party can afford to not find some way for that to happen.

They don't have any legal recourse; that ship has already sailed. At this point it would be a re-vote or re-caucus to get seated.

Cycloptichorn

I dont think that Hillary would really want that to happen.
Right now, she won in Michigan, so IF those delegates get seated she gets them.

If there was a re-vote or a re-caucus, she would be in danger of losing the delegates she has now, even if they arent being counted.
She doesnt want to lose them, so I think she would fight any type of re-vote, on the grounds that the voters have already chosen.

Either way, its going to be fun to watch.

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One other possible piece of good news re: Pennsylvania:

The primary is April 22nd. There is tussling going on re: Clinton tax returns. (Obama has released his and is calling for Hillary to do the same; she says she won't.) I saw recently that she won't do it unless she becomes the nominee -- the latest I saw is that she won't until "tax day." (I can find that back on request.)

Tax day is, of course, April 15th.

I don't know what the reluctance is but there does seem to be some sort of reluctance, if only because it will demonstrate that they have made a lot of money since they've left the White House. If that's the best-case scenario, I could still see that hurting her a bare week before the primary, especially with blue-collar voters. (The Clintons' net worth was evidently something like $35 million in 2006.)

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I don't know, the closed primary coupled with the seniors (with no place to go) concerns me. I guess there's still time for a massive voter registration drive, though.

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Oh, I'm concerned, for sure.

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This is interesting, has anyone else heard this...

NEW YORK (CBS) ― Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton hinted at the possibility

Quote:

of a Democratic "dream ticket" with Sen. Barack Obama.

Speaking on "The Early Show" on CBS, Clinton said "that may be where this is headed, but of course we have to decide who is on the top of the ticket."

The rest of the article is here...

http://cbs4denver.com/campaign08/clinton.obama.ticket.2.669793.html

I hadnt heard this before now, but I dont see this happening.

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I speculated on that subject weeks ago.

Do I detect a note of snobbery sneaking in?

Quote:

More college students; more people with degrees (not a lot).

Is soz claiming the intellectual high ground for Big Ears?

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MM - it's been bruited about for a while, but only source is the Clinton camp.

You (may) know I work in risk management, and my view of the combination is that if Mrs Clinton ever accepted the #2 spot on that ticket, and they actually got elected, his life insurance should be cancelled effective at midnight January 20th 2009 EST. The other way around he can keep his insurance: she's a killer, and he's not.

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spendius wrote:

I speculated on that subject weeks ago.

Do I detect a note of snobbery sneaking in?

Quote:
More college students; more people with degrees (not a lot).

Is soz claiming the intellectual high ground for Big Ears?

It's just the demographics that are favorable to him. Nothing else.

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spendius wrote:

I speculated on that subject weeks ago.

Do I detect a note of snobbery sneaking in?

Quote:
More college students; more people with degrees (not a lot).

Is soz claiming the intellectual high ground for Big Ears?

they all do.... it's a majpor bone of contentipon to we great unwashed and ignorant. :wink:

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