cicerone imposter wrote:But from what I've been reading, she has a good chance in TX. Isn't that so?
lol Nope. She doesn't have a good chance in TX. For a few reasons:
1, the polls have tightened mightily. Here's a graph!
That's not a good sign for her. Note the meteoric rise in his numbers.
2, her national "latino" numbers have been slipping. Obama made a mistake in CA by not engaging the Latino crowd directly and lost b/c of it. I doubt they will make that same mistake twice.
3, Texas is 2/3 primary and 1/3 caucus. Obama is likely to win the caucus part regardless of how the popular vote goes. So Hillary's at a disadvantage there in terms of delegate allocation.
4, Thanks to the Republicans' redistricting, the African American and College crowds are very concentrated into certain districts. These districts have a high population, and will most certainly go Obama's way. Austin is a good example of this; with 7 or 8 delegates to hand out, Obama has a good chance to win 5 or 6 of them, if not 7!
Hillary on the other hand is relying on country counties for support. Many of these only have 3 or 4 delegates; she needs to beat him by more then 59% of the vote in order to take a decisive lead in those delegates, or they are going to split a lot of those counties. No advantage to her.
And 5, though this is anecdotal,
I don't think people understand the antipathy towards the Clintons in Texas. There are a lot of people who don't like them. Period. I have secured many votes for Obama from my relatives, with this simple pitch:
Quote:You know, this may be your ONLY chance to ever vote against Hillary Clinton. Do you want to go to your grave knowing you passed that up?
They all laugh, but then agree.
I think that, barring a major collapse, Obama will win OH and TX. And it will be over on March 5th.
Cycloptichorn
