realjohnboy
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:43 pm
sozobe wrote:
Think this is about McCain? That the independents went for him instead of Obama -- maybe even because with the polls and everything they thought Obama would win easily without their help?
/quote]
Yep. I am thinking that will be (part of) the story tomorrow. McCain stole some of Obama's thunder.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:46 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
sozobe wrote:
Think this is about McCain? That the independents went for him instead of Obama -- maybe even because with the polls and everything they thought Obama would win easily without their help?

Yep. I am thinking that will be (part of) the story tomorrow. McCain stole some of Obama's thunder.

That doesnt make sense though, because turnout in the Democratic race is apparently still way, way higher than in the Republican race.

If lots of Indies leaning to Obama at the last moment decided to vote for McCain in the Republican race instead, then you'd expect the vote totals in the Republican race to go up, and those in the Dem race down, accordingly.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:50 pm
The bad news for Obama is that if it's Obama and McCain in the election in November Obama will lose my vote too.

Obama vs anybody else and I'm for Obama
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:51 pm
I also suspect that the pricincts with the younger voters haven't been counted yet, and when they do, Obama's numbers will increase more quickly. That also goes for the "college educated" and the more wealthy citizens of NH.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:52 pm
I think that the Democrats will be in trouble in the general election if Obama wins. I agree that 2 years in the Senate just isn't enough experience to be the President.

I'll vote for the guy, because he's better than any of the possible Republican candidates (except McCain), but I'm not sure if the rest of the country would feel the same way.

Now an Obama/Clinton ticket (or vice/versa).....that's something I could get excited for.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:53 pm
We'll see. It will be an uphill climb for him to come back at this point, tho.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:55 pm
And here goes Bedford (100%)

Clinton: 40.54 %
Obama: 40.14 %
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:56 pm
nimh wrote:
realjohnboy wrote:
Yep. I am thinking that will be (part of) the story tomorrow. McCain stole some of Obama's thunder.

That doesnt make sense though, because turnout in the Democratic race is apparently still way, way higher than in the Republican race.

If lots of Indies leaning to Obama at the last moment decided to vote for McCain in the Republican race instead, then you'd expect the vote totals in the Republican race to go up, and those in the Dem race down, accordingly.

Although, actually, I might be wrong. Adding up the actual preliminary numbers so far, it seems like it's about 125,000 votes for the Democrats and about 100,000 votes for the Republicans. So that's a much more narrow margin than you had in Iowa, so perhaps RJB is right.

But somebody on WMUR, the NH TV-station, just said that although 47% of precincts are in, that doesnt mean 47% of the votes are in; and that many of the precincts that still havent come in are in bigger cities that were expected to go to Obama, so "things are expected to tighten up further still". Thats good news for Obama, but also means that the split in the numbers voting in the Dem race vs the Rep race could still widen up.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:57 pm
I'll sort of retract that last comment for the moment. Earlier on the Dem vote total was 42,000 to 22,000 for the Repubs. Roughly 2-1. Now it is 93,000 to 68,000 or 1.4 to 1.
More importantly, the margin between McCain and Romney in raw votes is not enough to explain why Clinton is ahead of Obama.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:58 pm
old europe wrote:
And here goes Bedford (100%)

Clinton: 40.54 %
Obama: 40.14 %

Looks like Hillary is doing better than expected in most of these towns that prof mentioned..
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:59 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
I'll sort of retract that last comment for the moment.

Ha, now we did mutual retractions! We'll never be politicians Smile
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:06 pm
What happens to Obama if Edwards drops out after tonight?

Does that mean more votes for Hillary or more for Obama?
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:07 pm
nimh wrote:
realjohnboy wrote:
I'll sort of retract that last comment for the moment.

Ha, now we did mutual retractions! We'll never be politicians Smile


F---ing flip-floppers.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:14 pm
Kicky: The only way that Nimh and I got tenured professorships at our respective universities was by learning to master questions by the "on the one hand but on the other hand " technique.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:23 pm
maporsche wrote:
What happens to Obama if Edwards drops out after tonight?

Highly unlikely...
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:25 pm
maporsche wrote:
What happens to Obama if Edwards drops out after tonight?


Edwards will stay in through, and may even win in, SC.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:25 pm
nimh wrote:
maporsche wrote:
What happens to Obama if Edwards drops out after tonight?

Highly unlikely...

He just announced that he's in this race up to the convention..
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:26 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
maporsche wrote:
What happens to Obama if Edwards drops out after tonight?


Edwards will stay in through, and may even win in, SC.


I just heard him say that he's in until the convention so yeah....pretty unlikely.


Who does that take votes away from though?
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:31 pm
Good question! I'll have to ponder it and Nimh will have to look at his polls.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:32 pm
NBC just projected Clinton the winner.
0 Replies
 
 

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