Obama '08?

Sorry
I am for change and hope
But not withi this CORPORATE Drama.
I am quite sure that the future butcher( read President) is invisible.

Early on, watch the cities of Manchester and Keene.

Manchester still has significant pockets of working-class voters, and is a good bellwether for the Hillary Clinton blue-collar vote. If Clinton carries Manchester by a wide margin, expect the results to be closer than expected. If Obama keeps close in Manchester, expect him to win comfortably statewide.

And if Obama carries Manchester, well, whoa Nelly! The rout is on.

Keene is located in the heart of Cheshire County, one of the most liberal counties in the state. If Clinton can carry Keene, she may pull a shocking upset. If Obama is winning statewide, he should carry this city comfortably.

Another good early bellwether is the town of Bow, just south of Concord. Lots of upscale, well-educated Democrats here. Again, if Clinton carries Bow, maybe it will be a longer night than expected. If Obama takes Bow comfortably, things are going as predicted for him.

Other key towns to watch: Rye and Exeter on the Seacoast; Bedford, Merrimack and Londonderry in the Interstate 93 corridor. All should be part of Obamaland if the polls are right.

Another good early bellwether is the town of Bow, just south of Concord. Lots of upscale, well-educated Democrats here. Again, if Clinton carries Bow, maybe it will be a longer night than expected. If Obama takes Bow comfortably, things are going as predicted for him.

Why is this so close?

Why isn't this the Obama crush that everybody predicted? The Obama spin is that younger voters show up later and will be counted later. But I have a few very preliminary thoughts. First, I'm not sure that the independent share of the electorate grew today quite as much as the pollsters were modeling. That means results will hinge more on Democratic regulars, where Hillary was always relatively strong. Secondly, I think that Hillary's tears may have affected things. At the very least, it may have helped build sympathy among Democrats and caused them to return to her. Thirdly, Bill Clinton made a fairly persuasive argument yesterday: That it's the duty of New Hampshire voters to keep this race alive so that voters can take a longer, harder look at Obama. It was a good process argument. Like I said, these are very provisional thoughts and we don't know how things will shake out tonight.

--Frank Foer

Hope at Hillary Central

I'm in the press room at the Clinton site near Manchester, and her aides think there's a real possibility she'll outperform expectations. Apparently their final exit polls were quite promising. As compared to a very sour mood Thursday night, campaign staffers are upbeat--in fact I'm pretty sure I just saw two of them give one another a sort of high-five hand clasp that sure looked celebratory to me.

The reporters here, meanwhile, are already discussing a possible new campaign narrative.

This could all be rendered moot within an hour, of course. But I know the junkies out there are dying for even a quick fix, so there it is.

Update: Something to keep in mind: Hillary may have an added advantage here, as one person close to her explained to me, because there is a pre-existing New Hampshire "Comeback Kid" narrative that is easy for the media to tell. (I've been hearing "comeback kid" predictions from Clintonites for a few days now, no doubt planting seeds they hope will flower in an easy press storyline.)

--Michael Crowley

Here Comes the Comeback Kid

Jon already mentioned the expectations debate that the unexpected tightness on the Democratic side has occassioned. Alas, I don't think that's a debate that Obama can win. When I was in New Hampshire, I heard more than one smart, plugged-in political person predict that Obama would get 50 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Bill claimed comeback kid status in 1992 when he lost to Tsongas by 8 points. Look for Hillary to make a similar claim if she keeps it within 10. And, given the media's perhaps irrational exuberance over Obama, look for the political press to buy it.

--Jason Zengerle

Other key towns to watch: Rye and Exeter on the Seacoast; Bedford, Merrimack and Londonderry in the Interstate 93 corridor. All should be part of Obamaland if the polls are right.